Member Info for Pelle

List contains 3% + owners
Total holding reduced from 47% to 42%
Is this the reason of the downward pressure on SP?

Enquest employee trust must have reduced from 73 mill to below 51 mill.
Any ideas?

Swedbank
8 March 4,06
30 August reduced from 4,37 to 3,95
9 th September 3,93

Big question is what happened to this Enq employee trust?

Swedbank
Only down 0,13% 2 mill shares.
Last report was 8 March and now 9 th Sept

I made printscreen

AB +1%
Aberforth -1,5%
Bailie -0,5%
Enquest Employee trust , out of list?

Otherwise small changes.
Can’t blame the Swede

Didn’t qualify this time either:-(

70 oil next 2 years will make us debt free if they want to.
Should clear 100p then also!

http://ravarumarknaden.se/high-risk-for-repeated-attacks-bearish-concerns-overstated/

Nice MO,
Its around 10 days cycle?

Jan, nice to see you back.
Let’s hope we get our party next year!

HMH,
I am completely with you for 2020.
FCF is about 50 times higher then my forest that give few % yield.
I will build one more position in something else once this start give something back.
Just don’t know what yet.

I am not the one bailing out

Hej HMH,
I will be very happy if your FCF comes true in Dec.
Just 2 more months on these chill-pills you order for me:-)

Evening Romaron,

I think your missing my point little bit.
In terms of Shell you mention they plan to give dividend 100b over next 5 years. Its a guidance.
Our guidance for H2 (in sept ) in term of production or debt/EBITDA target says basically nothing.
To narrow the range conservatively for remaining 4 months cant be too much to ask for.
AB did basically the opposite and open the range.

We seen FCF H2 estimates here from people in the range of 80-320 mill.
I think these analysts spend a fraction of our time on this and use Enq guidance and play numbers safe.
I would guess they estimate 0-100 mill FCF H2 and that its still tight for Enq make the schedule amortisation 120 mill in April.
With HMH's numbers we should clear that April amortisation in the next weeks mid Oct.

If Enq hits FCF anything near 300 mill H2 it will for for sure be a wakeup for the analysts and market.
SP must double in short time if we make it!

Romaron, conspiracy or not.
But AB’s H2 guidance is very vague.
By just re-confirming after 8 months he actually opens the outcome range instead of narrowing it.
It basically paint a complete different view then HMH’s numbers.
I am somewhere in the middle with estimates.

I think this lack of information creates a confusion for analysts and lack of upgrades.

You mention yourself Shell, and company’s fight over winning the oil investors money.
AB didn’t win that battle with Sept update.

Let’s see outcome in Dec update and guidance for next year.
I think that must be a turning point if oil holds.

Saudi have given intervju in 60 minutes.
If they don’t take care of Iran problem now it will be further escalation in region and oil prices will go higher then ever.

https://www.di.se/live/saudiske-kronprisen-varnar-oljepriset-kan-bli-ofattbart-hogt/

Hello HMH

I sure will sit tight after building a position here over last 4 years something.
The longer this continue the bigger the shock will be.

Hello HMH

its total loans excluding cash on hand.
I am confused with AB guidance just 3 weeks ago, re-confirm prod and debt/EBITDA below 2 when we hit 1,8 already for eaxmple.
And I get your debt/EBITDA level below 1,3 year end with an EBITDA of 1050 mill.
Even if we hit 1,5-1,6 AB's guidance is crap unless he really means there no FCF H2.

I have same fears as Heardy below

GKB, hopefully in one year we are there.
Let’s hope oil can hold around 60 or bit more.
And at some point next half year or so Enq is considered a safer bet.

GKB, I think debt went down fast there:-)

Hi L3

I have copied L7 capex assumption witch I think looks fair and I also use 150 mill for next year.
Magnus valuation, yes oil might have dropped 10 usd but so have the opex. Equal out.

Given the update I think we can now estimate CapEx for 2020. Here are my numbers:
$50m NS licensing requirements (the minimal level excluding drills)
$40m Kraken (Enquest share - might get clarification on this from Cairn Tuesday)
$20m Magnus
$20m Malaysia
-----------------------
Total $130m, which I'm rounding up to $150m guidance