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lack of inflation will not be an issue for the next 10 years - we may have a deflationary spike in the next 6-12 months but that will be short lived. - Inflation is coming, the general price level will start to rise commodities will be a good bet vs financial assets such as long term bonds for example... - hence I can see re-newed interest in AYM - Principle driver however will be the need for a board who are committed to progressing this in a serious manner - or sell it
I agree that the board have conistently failed to deliver and its very surprising they are still there with our largest shareholder seemingly not of a mind to force change which is surprising. Next RNS is very important - im sure it will absolutely contain the usual around followup studies however it also needs to contain a series roadmap to production that they commit to - otherwise asset disposal should be considered... - some turn on capital is certainly better than no return...
On the positive side the willingness exists (and therefore attractive funding) from Welsh govt and local economy to get this moving - and we know there is signficant tonnage and value to be realised over a number of years. In addition, I think we are moving to an inflationary environment which should be attractive for commodities...
and of course there is the potential for LIM and Grangesberg to show life - overall, its a solid portfolio with not that many shares in circulation - just needs the energy from a board serious about production...
Certainly increased volume here today (not difficult with the usual level being couple of thousand) - buying still in small amounts - couple of larger buys (i.e. 1M shares) would see this seriously move - but whats with that ridiculous spread!
Ive been surprised how little the SP has moved given the number of buys - this maybe indicates an significant overhang - ongoing seller in the background perhaps - either way MMs clearly have a lot of shares available....
Lets see how it progresses over next week...
excellent post Dubliner - with the current situation markets are certainly fickle - getting the permit may result in a slight uplift to the SP - however the real uplift will only come once we have customers in the bag - combined with a full understanding of the capex required (and the funding mechanism that is used to get it) - once we know that then we will have the SP at fair value - it will be higer than now - but to what extent?? GLA
50,000 share man still bidding away - more this morning I see, has been consistent over last couple of weeks....
In the absence of an RNS (god forbid the board actually are making significant progress!) feels like positioning for the reflation trade
The key here is the stickyness\willingness to continue holding for the journey - its very tempting to sell on a spike for us long suffering holders - personally, Ive held shares here since near the very start of the company - so ive been through it all - another couple of years wont hurt....
@Min - can you tell us the current cumulative holding of long term holders - this could give us a proxy for free float available when positive news really starts to hit....
doubt it, usually would see a furry of buys (not just 3) if there was genuine insider info - I'd expect a bugger purchase - that said nice to see someone still buying - in alot of ways this is still worth a punt - if I had spare cash id be very tempted to top up given the potential here - and in a worse case well, we still own the asset... - Plus the share is very illiquid given relatively small float - if really positive news did hit (i know i know) then SP could see an outsized move quite easily....
Being so cheerful that keeps you going Safetrader - Good to see some chunky buys going through today on price dip....
From a chat technical perspective we have now been consolidating for over a quarter at the new price level, this is building an excellent base to power us higher based on expected news flow.... -
I have read the scoping study previously and understand why you are using the figure - my point is that I cant see anyone rocking up with $50M (not to mention the additional investment required to get the project actually producing and exporting) when the mcap is what it is... - I share the frustration here and the BoD certainly havent been good value for money - I am somewhat surprised/disappointed that no-one has come in with a cheeky offer even to test the waters.... - I think that would likely happen if\when we ever get the funding to update the scoping study values - but at the current pace that would seem a long way off.....
How exactly could you hope to get a sale for $50M when the current mcap is £3M - thats not going to happen.... - besides, you'd expect interested parties to be looking to buy this on the cheap given the SP - but distinct lack of interest from others...
If permit falls into January no big deal - to be fair to PC, theres not much he can do it takes as long as it takes...
Whats important is having a market\customers from the get-go... - With PC investing £100k of his own cash Im comfortable that this is also in hand.....