Member Info for Pecten11

Topsharepicks- of course if Zak Mir says so, its definitely going to happen - don't bother doing your own research, the guru has spoken
ROFL

Anyone else hear a rattling sound??

As the can is kicked down this particular road....??

So AP knew that Swiss Toni hadn't previously had technical guys looking at the assets, but still said finance deal was imminent?? What isn't said is as just important as what is said with AP

Holy smoke batman - magmanus over 2000 posts since August this year - must be some kind of record (and not one to be proud of judging by the quality lol)
Are you drinking too much coffee while on furlough?

magmanus - do you actually believe half the tripe you repeatedly, repeatedly, repeatedly post???

Weathergeek - there is still risk in the deal, it's only Head of Terms at the moment and that 163million you quite is dollars, so about £125M, compared to market cap of around £77M now.
So unsurprising price should be st a discount due to risk

On the other side, that's totally ignoring value that could/should be ascribed to Beutong.....

Looks like a well balanced deal outlined by Tony

Just be careful when going on about valuations - the deal is in USD, so need to think of £Sterling equivalency when looking at effect on market cap

Mark, do tell us all when you hit the buy button, so we can wait for it to appear on the ticker......

Sarah, I think DrAim has been prescribing himself some 'medication' - only wish it was Loperamide Hydrochloride .....

Antharry, what expectations does anyone have re Swiss Toni?

Realistically, if it lets VAST pay off the Atlas bonds and any remaining debt to Mercuria at less than 10% coupon it's a good thing as it will reduce pressure on cash flow but is there anything else you expect?

Rob, if VAST hadnt paid in cash, Atlas would have got $500k of shares at 90% of the VWAP of the last 20 trading days - so about another 255 million shares

Question for you - how much profit do you expect VAST to make from the first shipment??

Wiggly, if they hadn't paid in cash after raising 1.6M, it would have raised huge questions as to where the cash had gone..

They had no choice

Robbie, please don't try and put me into your camp

I've tried to analyse the company and its RNSs to the best of my ability, hoping to create debate and more understanding, rather than just posting opinions - which can be dangerous either way imo

Personally I see payment in cash to Atlas of this conversion notice as a good thing - it obviously does have an effect on cash on hand though

Well that's a turn up for the books

However, it makes sense to in effect pay 10% interest rather than issue 50% more shares than would have happened at the conversion price

Mark, the only thing brewing is your own specific brand of Surströmming

Morning Sarah / Batfink
I'm just using the info from the tables in the RNS on the 19th Sept, as it's all we have to go on.

The surplus per quarter from Baita (its stated in dollars) increases over 2021 as they crank up production and get all the plant into use, so Q4 averages $967k (or £735k) per month, with 2022 averaging $1.278M (or £978k per month)
It's not a really a surprise it starts low, then improves as they'll become more efficient as time goes on, but shows why they needed to raise enough cash to help fund through those initial quarters

Remember they've restarted mining at Antoniou level 18, which has already been partially mined, the increase is also due to opening up level 19, which will be a fresh source of ore (and I guess the reason for the JORC related drilling, to prove the skarn deposit carries on as expected)

The annual report had board annual salaries at $700k (£532k) but i think the interims said they'd reduced that a little.

Overall , like I've said before, if they manage to hit the numbers in the table, they'll be ok, but it's not going to happen overnight, which is why I've challenged the '1p by Christmas'type brigade - all they want is a quick spike to sell a trade and leave someone else holding the baby for multiple more months when reality of the cash flow sets in.

In the longer term, if you've got a fairly low average, your holding should give you a nice return imo

Batfink, I might be talking out of derriere, but I've wondered about the use of 'net' revenue on Craig's tables, as the variable, fixed and development costs appear to come out of the figures you've quoted, so surely they should be gross revenues?
I.e. surplus after costs would be
Oct-Dec 2020 - $418429 (approx £317,777 or £105k per month)
Jean-Marc 2021 - $1575697 (approx £1197529 or £400k per month)

Unless that net revenue line, is net to VAST, ie after AP Group has taken their 20% ?

Sarah, they are only going to be excavating an average 14000 tonnes of ore in 2022 - Q4 this year is only an average of 4310 tonnes of ore per month - remember that's ore, not crushed, milled and seperated concentrate

Wiggly 'Copper at 2 year high now'

No it's not, it's gone down $400 over the last couple of weeks to $6400
https://www.lme.com/en-GB/Metals/Non-ferrous/Copper#tabIndex=2

Anyone have a date when the final results are due?

Sarah - yeah, is would broadly agree 250M plus sounds about right for mid tier
Based on forecast revenues / or production profit (for Baita, not the topco) in Craig's tables, why do think that should mean such a high valuation?

Imho, and I'm definitely no expert - GGP is broadly based on expectation of what appears to be a considerably growing asset (so it's easier hype the possible, rather than the knowedge of the reality), with that growth being delivered by a genuine tier 1 company doing the exploration - which increases faith.
Now whether that's fair value is another matter - when the cost of development/ production etc comes in the form of a bankable feasibility study, the question of how it will be funded will put huge pressure on the SP imo.
For example https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/
However, for the last 6 months plus it has had huge momentum behind it (supported by the price of gold going north), so if they continue finding very promising grades (albeit at depth) who knows.

I hope you get to enjoy your champagne- that's huge commitment in terms of shares, especially considering AP only has about 81million !

Sarah - how do you define mid tier?