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Thank you JD. a positive start for myself and BMN

I am also pleased to read about the two current issues, COVID and SA unrest and how the Company is coping. Again these unavoidable challenges appear to be be8ng managed very well. Good to know that BMN takes the welfare of its staff seriously. To be commended.

“n spite of our rigorous COVID-19 mitigation measures, the third wave of the pandemic in South Africa has seen a significant increase in infection rates among our employees with 54 active cases currently. This has not had a material impact on our operations, and we hope each employee achieves a speedy recovery. Moreover, we are pleased to have commenced the vaccination programme for both the Vametco and Vanchem employees, including Impala Platinum kindly agreeing to collaborate on the use of their vaccination centre for our employees at Vametco.

The recent unrest in South Africa has not impacted production. The Group has experienced logistics delays in getting the final product to the port, these delays have now been resolved. We are monitoring the international logistics situation closely, given the pre-existing COVID-19 related delays but expect the Group to maintain export volumes during Q3 2021."  

Nice commentary on the Vanadium market:

“ The vanadium market is expected to strengthen for the remainder of the year, according to Roskill, driven by higher demand as well as tighter supply, as Chinese steel **** producers are operating at close to capacity. Prices are expected to remain strong in 2021 and gain further momentum in 2022 and 2023, given the predicted market tightness. The Company expects the market fundamentals to continue to support prices going forward.”

Good to read the CEOs thoughts on future vanadium market. He sounds confident.

“ " We are pleased to see strong demand sustained by the increase in Chinese steel production, while momentum continues to build in the application of Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries in the growing energy storage sector. Consequently, we expect the market fundamentals to continue to support the vanadium price going forward. “

(Continued)

Some of us that have remained positive have come in for some criticism and even abuse. Please note that everything that we have been saying about the business is supported by the content of this RNS with respect to Bushveld Vanadium.

Just my opinion.

Apologies for delay in responding to this RNS due to early hospital appt and bpneeding time to properly digest the content.

That is just about as good an RNS as we could have hoped for. Very positive tone backed up by much improved data, useful explanations and confident forward looking commentary. Big congratulations for countering the poor market sentiment by releasing this Q1 update significantly earlier than in previous years. Well done Fortune.

The specifics:

Vametco production improved and stabilised. I am delighted that the total of 593mtV was further broken down to highlight May and June (the last 2 months of Q2) at 278 and 261mtV. In other words the issues that we already know about following restart after maintenance shutdown and that impacted on April production were resolved and just as Jamiejojo’s source and my logic in an earlier post suggested, production is stable, and higher than the 240 mtV month also mentioned. Market please note this most important fact!

Again in a previous post I suggested that the increased production at Vanchem was stable at around the 290 mtV per Q, and today it is reported at 293 mtV. This again is very good news.

Given that Vametco in Q2 generated most of its production in the last two months of the Q production costs remain relatively high due to fixed costs and $ Rand rate, but looking forward to Q3 and with continued stability I would expect production to be much higher at between 700 and 750 mtV (based upon the full three months stable production). Fixed costs per unit of production will therefore be lower and similarly lower production costs. A positive for next time to look forward to.

Delighted to see more commitments to increasing production at both plants into the medium term:
“In addition, we intend to complete the now expanded prefeasibility studies ("PFS") at Vametco together with the technical studies currently under way at Vanchem in Q4 2021. These studies will determine the optimal path to increase production from Vametco and Vanchem in the most capital efficient manner.”
Most important that they continue with strategic planning for the future.

On that note good to read of their plans to maintain ore supplies to Vanchem. Keeps us informed and confident about how those kilns will be fed.

There is more but I will leave it there for now.

One last thought. I know it is very frustrating to see a disappointing share price. However it is essential to know what the company is doing as a strong business performance will underpin future profit for shareholders. Comms has been poor, yes, (though today’s RNS is a breath of fresh air) but the best PR in the world will not make up for a failing business. BMN is working hard to build a sustainable business around its vertically integrated vanadium platform. At any moment in time we may not know the full story but that does not mean it isn’t happening. Give the BoD your support…. Please.

Some of us that have remained positi

That’s a very fair point FB

I’m hoping we get Q2 numbers as in 2019 ((31July) rather than like 2020 (02 September).

Kyloe that sounds very reasonable. Open debate by genuine shareholders, both positive and negative is fine.

Unfortunately there are those who set out to deliberately disrupt or mislead in support of a particular trading position or shorting. That is not balance. Numbers are small but those individuals need calling out.

Price quoted on dummy trade a.k.a

Unable to get a buy price on HL. Haven’t seen that for a while. Sell 12.75p

Some heavy buying going on. Normal buyers of shorts closing?

Do it quietly please.

Bigal ‘eternal optimism’ as you put it has nothing to do with my position re BMN. If you read my posts you should understand that I base my opinions on facts and evidence in the public domain, unlike those who appear on this bb spouting negativity based solely on the current short term share price, with seemingly little knowledge of what the company is actually doing.

No one seems to challenge that evidence. Instead they use easy to repeat expressions like ‘eternal optimism’ or ‘rise tinted glasses’ because they are unable to seriously challenge the logic of my conclusions.

I am very happy with that. The more people that accuse me of the above without any substantial evidence other than short term share price in a highly manipulated market then the more convinced I am of the soundness of my position.

If you don’t like BMN then fine. Either don’t buy or else sell your shares. However many did just that in 2016 and missed the huge share price rise. On the other hand I had people thank me for helping them have the confidence to hold during those dark days and then enjoy the benefit of the later boom in share price.

I can’t guarantee anything but there are many similarities between now and 2016 / 17, even the rising trend in Vanadium prices, which most professional commentators suggest may continue into 2022 with increasing demand and tightness of supply.

You have to be in it to win it.

All just my opinion.

Bigal I’m pleased that you have finally learnt some basic maths! Took a while but you got there in the end. Oh and my previous post was for you as it demonstrates that Jamiejojo’s source could be both genuine and correct.

I guess it is a bit much to expect from you any serious understanding of how the company has performed over the last 32 months. Look beyond today’s share price. Look at these achievements from that same time period:

partnering with the IDC to construct an electrolyte manufacturing planted (now begun),

building a solar / battery storage minigrid at the Vametco site,

developed the first electrolyte rental contract in partnership with Avalon,

acted as a catalyst to bring together smaller VRFB companies to benefit from the ability to scale up (the most notable example to date is the merger of Avalon and RedT to form Invinity),

invested in other VRFB companies (already making several $ million profit from the Invinity shares),

contracted to have first refusal to supply vanadium / electrolyte to partners such as Invinity,

invested in refurbishing Vametco and Vanchem plants to improve reliability, to increase production capacity and diversify range of products (those plans are ongoing),

negotiated and put in place the funding for these developments,

planning to participate in Eskom renewables contracts (details at this time not revealed),

That is an impressive list of achievements. And no doubt there are some I have left off. And remember the background to those achievements ... a Vanadium price crash (2019) and Covid (2020/21). That context would be incredibly challenging for any company, yet here they are, continuing with their refurbishment and expansion plans and pushing the VRFB industry forward.

Plenty of cynics back in 2016 were posting very similar negativity ... just before two years of astonishing sp rises. The situation feels very similar today, even supported by a rising trend in Vanadium prices. Main difference? Today the company is bigger and stronger, with greater production and more diversity of products and services.

The foundations are in place for what may be a very exciting 2 years. Watch this space.

Just my opinion.

Welcome back Jamiejojo.

Final Results

“As reported in the Q1 2021 operational update, Vametco's performance was impacted by slower than expected ramp up post the successful completion of the 35-day planned maintenance shutdown. There were more unforeseen mechanical breakdowns after start-up, followed by six-days of unprotected industrial action in April 2021 “

“Since the successful completion of the shutdown, operational stability and performance have improved. Sustaining this stability, however, requires a recalibration of Vametco's monthly production levels and a disciplined, proactive maintenance strategy over a period of time. As a consequence, the management team has revised the monthly production targets for Vametco to approximately 240 mtV per month, previously 270mtV. This changes Vametco's 2021 production guidance to between 2,300 mtV and 2,400 mtV, from previous guidance of between 2,700 mtV and 2,850 mtV. The run rate for the remaining months of 2021 is an annualised production of approximatively between 2,600 mtVp.a. and 2,700 mtVp.a.”

RNS 21.04.21

“Industrial action resolved.”

Jamiejojo 13.05.21

“Well i do and you might want to know things are going very well on the production side”

When considering whether it is possible for Jamiejojo’s source to be correct look at the timeline. Following the restart after the maintenance shutdown production was hindered by a number of unforeseen mechanical breakdowns BEFORE the industrial action. Therefore these interruptions, including industrial action, were over by 21.04.21 (the date of the ‘industrial action over’ RNS.

Then we have this comment in Final Results: “Since the successful completion of the shutdown, operational stability and performance have improved”. So by early / mid May it is quite possible that Jamiejojo’s source implying that things are going very well on the production side could certainly be true. The timeline works. I am sure they would have been monitoring production volumes very closely and 2 to 3 weeks production should be enough to get a sense of how things were going.

Remember what they were trying to achieve was operational stability at Vametco. If that is happening then that is very good news for us. Hopefully the Q2 numbers will give us a pointer in the right direction. When reading those numbers remember the context.

Just my opinion.

Perhaps a ‘small’ positive from BMN’s 100% owned Vanchem plant might be welcome.

When BMN took over Vanchem all the talk here was of adding another 1000 mtV to group production. In 2020 (the first full year of Bushveld ownership) Vanchem produced about 990 mtV (target 960 - 1100 mtV). So Vanchem did indeed produce almost 1000 mtV and also hit its target.

Here are the Vanchem production figures (mtV) for the first 5 Qs under BMN ownership

Vanchem
2020 Q1 - 218
2020 Q2 - 212
2020 Q3 - 294
2020 Q4 - 261
2021 Q1 - 293

The interesting point for me is that under BMN ownership production has INCREASED! The first two quarters less than 220 mtV per quarter, but since then over 290 mtV is the standard. Yes that was missed in Q 4 but there was an unexpected maintenance shutdown that lost an estimated 30 mtV. Add that onto 261 and ....

So Vanchem has seen production increase.

Here is another little gem. When Vametco was shutdown for 35 days Vanchem was able to produce 124.3 mtV of ammonium metavanadate (AMV) toll treated at Vametco to produce Nitrovan which was sold through Vametco's normal marketing channels. The RNS indicates this produced 116 myV of Nitrovan. So Vanchem helped Vametco honour it’s contractual obligations during the shutdown.

It’s all in the RNSs if one looks hard enough.

Any opinions expressed are just mine. Facts were taken from RNSs

So let me make sure that I have correctly understood what some of you are saying.

Comms / PR is so poor that there must be a reason for this. In the absence of any evidence whatsoever you have decided that the company is being prepared for a sale. Ok decent mark for imagination and creativity but factual content? Zero.

Bear in mind that the BoD own a lot of shares. They have skin in this game just like we do. Now perhaps I am a little unusual in the respect that when I sell something that I own I want the maximum price I can get for it. Yet some of you seriously think they are pushing the price down to sell the business. Hence no PR. I have read some weird theories on LSE in my time but this one is perhaps the strangest of the lot.

Fortune loves Bushveld. It is his creation. His vision is to build a vertically integrated vanadium platform. He is well on the way to achieving this but not there yet. Does anyone here seriously believe that he would abandon this dream after 8 years, so close to accomplishing it? His reputation will be enormously enhanced once this is delivered. A cheap sale would have the opposite impact.

Even if the BoD wanted to sell the business I am certain they would want a lot more than the current M/C before recommending to accept. And I am very sure that many pi’s would also want a lot more that 12p.

I think talk if a cheap sale is absolute nonsense.

I would like to be focusing on Q2 figures and any commentary about the period and post-period activity. Hopefully we will see some consistency in production at Vametco, and Vanchem continuing to hit its target. Production costs will be interesting too.

All just my opinion.

Sorry but that is more nonsense.

Nonsense.

Possibly more important than any of these BMN related issues has been selling by one or more institutions and possibly by some large pi’s. I cannot accurately assess the extent of this but I would not be surprised if sellers are still active. This overhang will have impacted on the share price quite heavily in my opinion and may be a significant factor still in holding back the share price.

There is evidence that some shorting has taken place and I wouldn’t underestimate the capacity of the mm’s to manipulate the share price to their own benefit.

I doubt this list is either totally accurate or comprehensive. It merely represents my opinion.

Do I think BMN has it’s finger in too many pies? Absolutely not! Anyone invested in BMN should know that years ago they set their target to build a large low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform. That is exactly what they are delivering. Look how far they have come in just over 4 years from the first Vametco purchase. Fortune overseas the strategy. Vametco and Vanchem management run the plants and mine, Mikhail leads BE. They have also brought in new people at Director level as the business expands. No doubt more additions and changes will be made as appropriate. The BMN story is a complicated one but the potential returns for shareholders could be significant as BMN delivers on the next phase of its development.

Are the timescales too far in the future for us more ‘mature’ investors? If life were normal for me I would give a simple answer to you …. No. They have grown this business far quicker than most wannabe AIM resource companies, and at far less cost than building new greenfield production plants. In fact many of those companies will never get into production. I think with rising V prices and BMN getting on top of production issues, plus the growth of the BE side of the business, I would like to think we are not far off a significant recovery in the share price.

However as I have terminal cancer it is a difficult question for me to answer. I try not to let my own misfortune colour the commentary that I give here. It is quite possible that my time will run out before I get maximum benefit from this investment. If I am honest I would happily give my shares away if I could be rid of this disease but I will keep positive fight it, just as I remain positive about Bushveld.

Well John, rather rambling but I hope it helps. I know there are hurdles ahead as with any investment but for me the positives very heavily outweigh the negatives with BMN and rising Vanadium prices will only make things better still. The low share price may offer an excellent entry for some investors.

All just my opinion.