Member Info for PDMSPiper

figures of 1760bopd which should give an income of $12.5Million per annum based on a conservative netback of $20. Mcap should be min 4x production and is currently £20Mln so there’s a discrepancy there. The Mcap here should be £40M+ just based on production, without considering the 2020 drilling program which I believe consists of 8 drills fully funded. A successful drilling program this year could see this up to £80-100 mill Mcap. In any case it’s a relatively safe investment at this price with the sp more than underwritten by production. Ex Tullow bod with interests aligned with shareholders and a placing just completed makes this package a very attractive buy so I’m in and buying more if it drops further towards the placing price.
My research is basic at this point but if anything needs correcting or anything to add, go ahead.
Do we know when the first drills will spud?

They can re perf where they want to if required.

What I’m saying is based on 2 facts:

1.) They stayed in the RNS that all recovered well fluids will be passed through the incinerators.
2.) The incinerators are incapable of burning liquids. They are for cleaning gaseous emissions only.

So, if they flow oil it won’t be going through the incinerators which will contradict their statement in the RNS. Currently the RNS implies that they will not be flowing oil.

Check the wording of the RNS. It says: “All recovered well fluids will be passed first through the test unit and then through the incinerators....”
Seeing as the incinerators are incapable of burning oil, that tells me that the “well fluid” is gas, possibly with oil in suspension that they have to burn off before emission to atmosphere. That’s what they’ve had to redesign for “presence of oil”. They had to stop last time because the gas flair was too dirty and they didn’t have a permit to flare oil. The incinerators are filters which operate at 800c+ to clean the emissions.
The flow test has been redesigned to clean it up so it remains within the environmental consents. It hasn’t been redesigned as an oil flow test IMO.

Isdeer; Spoiler: They can’t put liquids through those incinerators. They are for burning off organic impurities in gaseous emissions. They aren’t oil burners or flares. They are not physically capable of performing the function of an oil flare.

I tell you what I think currently: I think they’ll just do a gas flow test from WNA2, using the incinerators to clean the emissions of oil particles in suspension which are what caused the problem last time IMO. They will then drill WNB and flow and test oil from B where they are more likely to get a permit to flare oil as its further away from habitation.
They have never said in an RNS that they intend to flow oil. They only refer to “well fluids”, which encompasses everything. As for press releases and interviews, they can say what they want to in those as they aren’t regulated. Furthermore, I don’t think we’ll get any solid flow data from this WNA2 data either. They’ll want to keep it all low key until after WNB is drilled and tested. All only my opinion. We’ll have to wait and see.

There is one particular very telling paragraph in the RNS where they confirmed intention to recommence operations at WNA2. As soon as I read it, if cast a massive doubt over plans to flow oil. In fact if they do exactly what they say they will do in that RNS then flowing oil will be physically impossible. On the other hand they have said they need a pump and were waiting for a permit for a pump. No need for a pump if they don’t intend to flow oil. The 2 statements are directly contradictory so we’ll just have to wait and see.

In order to abandon plans to flow oil from WNA2 they would have had to have made plans to flow oil from that location in the first place.
In my opinion the flow test program has been redesigned. I accept, as we are told that the flow test program has been redesigned to deal with the unexpected presence of oil. There is a popular misconception that this therefore means that the newly redesigned flow test will be an oil flow test. It doesn’t. It means what they say: The flow test had to be redesigned to deal with the presence of oil. In my opinion, that is what the incinerators (regenerative thermal oxidizers) are there for. But what do I know, I’ve only designed and supervised installation of this stuff all over the world for the last few decades. You might know better than me.

Well if that’s the case expect another wait for EA permit approval after they’ve inspected the bunded areas. Alternatively, they don’t plan to flow oil, just recommence the gas test, which would explain why they don’t need tank bunds.

Exactly, and they aren’t going to fill the wellpad up with a clutter of equipment to sit there inactive, costing money, while they construct tank bunds and do other preparatory work.
As I said. Preparatory work will need to be done before convoys of wagons enter the site with new equipment that they are not ready for because they don’t have bunded areas. The bunded areas will need to be inspected by the EA and verified that they are suitable and able to hold the minimum requirement of 75% of the volume of the largest tank within the bund.
I was expecting them to have done all this by now. They’ve had 5 months to build tank bunds on the wellpad but they’ve built feck all. I find that strange.

I would expect to see evidence of preparatory work at the wellpad before mobilization of equipment to recommence any planned testing operations.
For example: If they plan to flow oil then they need storage tanks. Any oil storage facility on the wellpad will need to be sited within a Bunded area for spillage containment. I dont see any. Unless they have made us wait five months just to resume the gas test. Which would be very disappointing. I think the market is expecting evidence of flowed liquid hydrocarbons here at minimum and I think most investors are expecting an oil flow test on the 45M oil column they say we have. I think anything less will be greeted with disappointment.

Mymine; That was my strategy too and that’s why I’m currently out. However, the drop in the last few days has been steeper and faster than expected so even when it gets to 0.12 I wouldn’t buy back in, I’ll wait for news on WN resumption as until we get hard evidence of equipment rolling onto that site it will keep dropping. RBD dropping too and they’re already 20% under their placing price with some great assets drilled, under test and producing in Cali. It’s all about WN now. Both stocks have become one trick ponies as far as the market is concerned. GLA.

If the .15 level holds for a while here then there’s a good chance of heading back up. If .15 breaks quickly, today, and it closes at .145 then it’s down to .12 in short order.

A 3% mini spike today then as a few mugs buy this rumour, then the inevitable drop over the next couple of weeks as nothing happens. It isn’t a new story is it really.

Cali is more than equivalent to Wressle and Romania is more than equivalent to Bisca. Both assets are far more advanced than UJOs but this isn’t a UJO v RBD question. This is the simple reality that the market makers will peg the stocks together thro the summer going into the wn work program so, to start with, UJO will be taken down to 82% of your placing price, where RBD is.

RBD have producing assets in California who’s production is recorded at over 700bopd on the state authority website. RBD Cali are drilling more wells that are now already self funded from that production. RBD have also drilled a successful well at IM1 in Parta Romania, currently being tested. They have 3 successful strikes on 3 assets if you count WN and also a producing cash generative asset in Cali. RBD are still at 82% of their recent placing price. Wressle counts for nothing at this point in time.

Is still my forecast bottom here on no news. This isn’t a figure plucked from thin air. Look at the RBD placing price and look at their share price level. Look at UJO placing price and do the equivalent pro rata percentage calculation. They’ll both be sat at similar levels relative to their placing prices very soon. GLA.

starts tomorrow. Will be red tomorrow, about 1.8% down is my estimation. Drifting down at a rate of 1.8% per day, how long will it take to get to 0.12? About 2-3 weeks probably. By the end of February with no news due this will be well under placing price, 0.1-0.12 and lower as time goes on without news.
The MMs k ow this is a traders stock and they’ll want to make a market. Once the placing churn is done and the flippers are out the MMs will drop this every day there’s no news. Wait and see. GLA.

Rathlin’s next community liaison meeting will be all about the company placating local concerns about the 3 month construction period over the summer, 6 weeks for the access road and 6 weeks for the WNB site plus the archaeological assessment works. These meetings are not shareholder presentations. The company will be as low key as possible. They want to dissuade protest, not attract more. Idiotic to think otherwise. That’s why the last meeting was mostly negative news concerning lack of energy in the the wellbore and the need for a pump permit. Theyre not there to ramp it. Ha.

“Chris Williams returns?”

Lol. The Poundshop version.

Not a chance of a penny. It could go back to 0.3 but will go down well under placing price first. 0.1-0.12 is coming this spring. Nothing happening on WN until the summer now. The market has been played by the partners and the pump n dumpers have mugged off LTHs again. The dump is in and off they go like rats from a sinking ship. I don’t know where the bottom will be here now. I’m out. I sold before the Wressle news landed and posted here when I had. If I were holding still I’d be getting out above placing price while I still could that’s for sure.