Member Info for pb940

Not sure if this SP Angel flash note on Bushvelds website has been posted already.

https://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Bushveld_Q4_FY_Production_report.pdf

Yeah, read that and thought 'well thats a load of bo||ocks'

Looking at different alternatives to lithium-ion in it's main usage but does have an 'honorable mention' for vanadium in the grid storage space. There's also a 'How do they measure up' graphic which after the section.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/973718/challengers-emerge-alternatives-to-lithium-ion-batteries-973718.html

Honourable mention: redox flow batteries
Vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFB) are structural batteries with a vanadium base, a type of rechargeable flow battery that uses vanadium’s ability to exist in four different oxidation states to produce energy from a single electroactive element.

Unfortunately, due to the structural nature of these aqueous batteries, they are bulky and heavy, with a much larger spatial footprint when compared with lithium-ion batteries.

They are quickly becoming a front-runner for grid stabilisation however, with a lifespan of over 20 years, no degradation over time, a life cycle of 15,000 to 20,000 charges and discharges, no limit on energy capacity per unit and a very low production cost, making them an attractive option in structural applications.

South Australia has already bought into the technology, commissioning Australia’s first-ever utility-scale vanadium flow battery to be installed in regional South Australia with the goal of providing scalable, flexible, medium-duration energy storage.

Considering the global push toward renewable energy and carbon neutrality, such batteries may eventually support our energy grids as we make the transition to green power sources.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bushveld_minerals/news/rns/story/w1y326w

Monkeytom, short answer, not sure. This should give you an idea of what happened last time.

https://www.bushveldminerals.com/about-vanadium/

https://www.l2b.co.za/Project/Vanadium-Electrolyte-Production-Facility-Buildin/22815

https://www.l2b.co.za/Project/Vanadium-Electrolyte-Production-Facility-Infrast/22814

I like to think it means certain milestones in the project are being reached and the project needs updating accordingly.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/973648/iron-ore-smashes-150-after-beijing-eases-steel-s-green-targets-973648.html

Iron Ore Smashes $150 After Beijing Eases Steel’s Green Targets

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

China offered its huge steel industry five extra years of rising carbon emissions, sending iron ore soaring
as investors saw the move as a renewed focus on propping up the economy.

Steelmaking accounts for about 15% of China’s carbon emissions. On Monday, the government set 2030 as the new deadline for peak-emissions for the sector, against an earlier target of 2025. That adds to signs that Beijing is recalibrating its climate strategy in light of last year’s commodity price spikes, and priming the economy for a more powerful, carbon-intensive stimulus.
“This is a big adjustment to the timetable, which gives more room for the steel sector to reach peak emissions in an orderly way,” said Xu Xiangchun, an analyst with researcher Mysteel. A rush to meet carbon goals could lead to “unbearable economic costs”, he said.

The policy pivot is another sign that Beijing is changing the trajectory of its decarbonization plans to ensure industrial changes don’t result in damaging inflation or shortages. President Xi Jinping said last month that climate targets shouldn’t compromise supplies of commodities that “ensure the normal life of the masses.”

Iron ore surged past $150 a ton, with expectations rising for more infrastructure to soften China’s economic slowdown. More construction activity tends to means higher steel output, which in turn raises iron ore demand but means more greenhouse gases.

My view - Xi Jinping announced a change of emphasis ahead of the Lunar New Year Holiday in saying carbon reduction would need to take a backseat to ensuring living standards are protected. Today, there was also news that the State investment fund is buying stocks to support prices and that curbs of property market loans are being removed. That’s all supportive of the view China is actively putting a floor under asset prices.

https://techcentral.co.za/renewables-peak-at-19-of-south-africas-electricity-supply/207489/

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-africa/eskom-dmres-new-battery-storage-welcome-but-not-enough/

The thing is pdub I'm not sure why Duferco would take shares when the sp was around 9.9p only to 'dump' them at around 10p.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/invinity-energy-sys--ies-/rns/8.4-mwh-sale-to-canadian-solar---storage-project/202202030700045857A/

Lets hope one day bmnfan, one day.

Advantages of Aqueous Electrolyte-Containing Batteries
Vanadium-containing polyanion lithium combinations are used to fully utilize the enlarged potential window of high-salinity aqueous electrolytes.

The tightly compacted frameworks of -Li compounds result in a high working potential, quick lithium-ion diffusion, and exceptional phase stability. The incorporation of extra electronegative F ions with a significant induction impact into the solidus covalently linked crystal structure resulted in further enhancements in the oxidation potential of LiVPO4F.

Furthermore, the hypersaline aqueous electrolyte efficiently prevents vanadium-based active compounds from dissolving into the electrolyte. Using ball milling, a specific proportion of MWCNTs was homogeneously incorporated into the slurries and acted as a conductive agent to produce dense electron-transfer channels in the slurries.

Research Findings
The open-circuit voltage of the hypersaline ALISFBs was greater than 1.5 V, with a total energy density of up to 84.6 Wh. Kg-1. During long-term cycling, a phenomenal Coulombic efficiency of over 100 percent was retained.

Importantly, the ALISFBs demonstrated extraordinary cycle stability due to the great structural stability of the particles and the excellent size exclusion of the dialysis membrane. The presence of Li-ion in the batteries, in particular, demonstrated a good capacity retention ratio of almost 100% after more than 1000 cycles, with essentially negligible degradation per cycle and per day.

Furthermore, the combination of a flow cell with a commercialized, low-cost dialysis membrane significantly decreased the ALISFBs' system cost, which is crucial for their practical implementation in large-scale energy storage devices.

In short, an unconventional aqueous slurry flow battery design has been proposed. The pricing of the ALISFBs for grid-scale energy storage devices is conservative because of the special cell design. Furthermore, particles in slurries may be easily recycled using basic liquid-solid extraction procedures such as filtering and centrifugation, considerably facilitating the recovery and recycling of active components.

https://www.azom.com/news.aspx?newsID=58065

The Need for Storage Devices
With a rapid boom in the need for a transformation from fossil fuels to sustainable means of energy such as sporadic wind and solar power, the advancement of cost-optimized and self-sustaining supplementary battery storage is direly needed to meet the ever-increasing demand for decentralized energy storage systems in microgrids.

Solar panels and renewable energy have improved tremendously as a consequence of regulatory benefits and lower program costs. This is primarily due to higher industrial utilization and an increased power demand as a result of both professional and personal activities. Electric energy storage technology is designed to alleviate this adverse situation by smoothing the generation of electricity.

Owing to their dependable stability and modulable battery systems with decoupled efficiency and electricity outputs, redox flow batteries based on liquid electrolytes are very promising for industrial applications. Because of their mono-element nature and great durability, all-vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) have especially received a lot of attention.

A redox flow battery (RFB) is one of the most important technologies for electricity and power storage due to the variance of power and energy. In typical RFBs, redox-active materials (RAMs) submerged in solution are placed into battery structures, and electrolytic conditions change on the terminals while the cell packages operate. This implies that both RAMs and electrodes are necessary for RFBs.

Organic RAMs have a low price, are associated with "greenness," and have unique flexibility. The bulk of organic RAM research is now focused on functional studies, medicinal chemistry, and manufacturing.

Limitations of the Technology
However, the persistent crossover phenomenon, relatively poor Coulombic effectiveness (typically 85 percent), and expensive cost of ion-exchange barriers (500 to 700 USD m2) continue to limit the deployment of VRFBs. The organic solution in Li-RFBs, on the other hand, may provide a fire danger and raise system costs.

As a result, it is preferable to replace organic solutions with aqueous electrolytes that are safe, environmentally friendly, and competitively priced. Furthermore, the electrolytic capabilities of aqueous LIBs are limited by the short, wide electrochemical range of water (1.23V) and aquatic side reactions. Furthermore, the use of hypersaline aqueous electrolytes in dynamic RFBs aimed at large-scale energy storage has yet to be investigated.

It was also discovered that increasing the salt content and adding MWCNTs improved the dispersion stability of slurries and inhibited vanadium dissolution.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/01/31/vanadium-redox-flow-battery-to-control-extreme-power-ramps-in-rooftop-pv/

cont

China. While China suffered a stalling of the property market last year as Evergrande teetered on the brink of outright collapse, the authorities have stepped in to avert the disruption of bankruptcy and are now seen as stimulating the economy through the activation of new infrastructure projects

VRFBs: The ongoing, but somewhat slow, development of Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries is beginning to gain pace with China planning 100s of megawatt hours of vanadium flow batteries. While it is difficult to gauge exactly when this demand will appear Bushveld estimate demand of >9,000t of vanadium pentoxide will be required to formulate the electrolyte for these batteries.

Valuation: We have revised our valuation to 31p from 33p due principally to higher unit costs incurred in the first half 2021 at Vametco due to Covid and furnace repairs at Vanchem due to silica and calcium in the feedstock caused by poor mining in heavy rain.

The relative strength of the South African rand did not help either. Fortunately, these issues should now be past.

Management appear more cautions with guidance given recent operating run rates and the business looks placed to benefit from an uplift in both production and Vanadium prices.

We feel we are being cautious with our vanadium price forecast where we are using the current $35/lb price as seen in Europe and the US for 2022. Prices are higher in China but translate to a lower $32.7/KgV after accounting for import tariffs.

We have also adjusted our longer-term ferrovanadium price to $38/KgV from $40/KgV though we are hopeful that we will be upgrading this price forecast when Biden’s new infrastructure bill is passed which should lead to a significant uplift in demand for structural steel.

US regulations require a greater proportion of vanadium in US used steel and this should have a disproportionate impact on vanadium demand.

China has also made recent comments on stimulating the construction of additional high-speed rail and other infrastructure projects to maintain strong economic growth again requiring more vanadium input.

Game changer: While demand for structural steel is the current price driver, VRFBs may well be a game changer for the industry this year.

VRF Batteries utilise around 10t of vanadium pentoxide per MWh. The material is near 100% recoverable and is not used up in the energy storage process.

The total market size of the vanadium market is around 110,000MtV pa indicating that additional demand for 9,000t of V2O5 will provide significant support to pricing.

China became a net importer of vanadium in 2020 supporting our view of a market deficit in supply vs demand through the year. While this deficit was probably provided for out of stocks from Evraz and Glencore we suspect surplus stocks will be low and for prices to lift as inventories are drawn down.

cont.
The problem has been largely resolved though better mine control and will be more fully resolved through the use of a magnetic separator ahead of the kiln feed to ensure 1.6-1.7%V2O5 grade with low silica and calcium content.

Cash and cash equivalents came to $15m at the year-end vs US$25m at end September.

Capex: Bushveld expects to spend around $17m this year versus $29m in 2021 which included $10.5m invested in Enerox Holdings

Vametco capex ZAR78m ~$5.1m

Vanchem capex ZAR127m ~ $8.3m

Mokopane ZAR3m ~$0.2m

BELCO ‘Bushveld Electrolyte Company’ ZAR37m ~$2.4m

Bushveld Energy ZAR10m ~$0.7m

Outlook: the outlook for vanadium is driven by relatively strong demand for structural steel.

Rising steel production in the US is driving ferrovanadium prices higher in the region.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/972632/today-s-market-view-hummingbird-resources-gemfields-galantas-gold-and-more-972632.html

Production of vanadium and ferrovanadium rose by 28% in the second half to 2,018 mtV to make 3,592mtV for the full year

Sales were 14% lower yoy at 3,314 mtV due to logistics issues with December shipments which cut Q4 sales by 30% yoy.

Production at Vametco beat our forecast but was 7.5% lower than last year causing unit cost to rise by 31.1% yoy.

Production at Vanchem rose 15% yoy while changing the mix of products combined with a kiln shutdown raised costs by 36.5%

Inventory: Unsold inventory of 278 mtV (worth ~$9.1m) due to Covid and other disruption to logistics, though there is always some unsold inventory at the year end.

Guidance for 2022 production and costs

Group production of 4,200- 4,400 mtV in 2022

Vametco: 2,450- 2,550 mtV with costs of $22.7-23.5/kgV

Vanchem: 1,750- 1,850 mtV, with cost $27.7-28.4/kgV

Target : Production run rate of 5,000-5,400mtV by the year-end

Vametco run rate to maintain stable and consistent output at 2,800mtV

Vanchem to hit a run rate of 2,600mtV by end 2022 and to more than double in 2023.



Bushveld posted strong gains in the second half after a challenging start to the year. Production guidance is weighted towards the second half 2022 offering another 608-808mtV of mainly ferrovanadium production.

We expect unit costs to fall materially this year as management focus on stability and more efficient production though the relative strength of the South African rand remains an issue.

Vametco: the Vametco mine had a good Q4 mining 22% more ore and a grade that was 58% higher yoy

Concentrate grade improved by 4.9% yoy in the plant helping recovery rates to to improve 1.7% to 72.7%

Somehow Nitrovan FeV production fell 0.4% to 700mtV in Q4 despite the better performance indicating some material may still be in the system

Production for the year fell 7.5% yoy to 2,453mtV but was higher than our 2,308 mtV forecast. Production should pick up slightly in 2022 to the guidance above.

Vametco cut C1 costs in Q4 to $22.9/KgV resulting in an average $24.0/kgV for the year representing a 31% yoy increase.

C1 Costs should fall in 2022 though much will depend on operational stability.

Vanchem: FY vanadium production rose 15% to 1,138mtV and better than our 1,108mtV forecast for the year

Q4 Total vanadium production came in at 262mtV vs 261mtV a year earlier.

Vanadium production was stable though the mix changed to increase production of ferrovanadium to 204mtv vs 148mtV yoy

Vanchem C1 costs rose 36.5% yoy to US$30.6/kgV.

Q4 C1 costs also rose by 43.1% due to clay and silica in the ore coating the kiln and requiring shutdown and cleaning.

This was due to the mining of ores from the Upper Seam at Vametco with rain affecting the quality of the ore extracted.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/972645/bushveld-minerals-flags-improved-production-as-vanadium-prices-rise-972645.html

Didn't want to elaborate on the Vametco mini grid saying the Bushveld Energy update will be in the next few weeks.