The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
If JB truly believed in Amigo and using his words, the share price is worth 5x the amount offered of 20.9p why offer 20p? Why would he not just keep buying up to £0.80p, that way he would make 25% return. on his own valuation. If we do the math 29% up to 20p will probably be equal to the monetary value he brought in from selling his 63% share. This removes the agreements RG had with Amigo. I am invested in this share and have been for over a year, JB coming back isn't a great idea, GC is better to be left alone to run the business, he also has a better understanding of what is actually happening at the moment. JB is like all of us, investors, no inside information
I agree with Senator1, cash is king
At the moment Amigo have an amount of money which keeps pretty steady at over 100m, this is due to collecting in the book. A book which at the moment due to no lending will and paying out claims will continue to drop. Also when Amigo do start lending again where do you think the money comes from to give to the customers. Amigo at the moment is like a company with a warehouse full of stock, selling it down, on paper plenty of money coming in and appears successful, however that stock will dry up, and they will be left with items they can not sell (delinquent accounts)
Morning All, what we have to take from the RNS is the £136 million this is up £21 million from last RNS and Amigo must have been paying out on complaints in this time, if they never had to pay complaints out, that £136 would be materially higher (use Amigo words). This is the 1st positive news we have had in a while and I agree share price should now go up rather than down, the 1% sell is priced into the market by now (hopefully)
Volatility - I would suggest it is due to the penny stock value which it has become, if this hit 10p it is still very low compared to what it has been, however that would almost be 100% upside to what it is now, any news at all will make this either drop all the way to 0 or will make it shoot back up, personally it is too risky either way at this price, could close in the high 4ps today! We are looking at two consecutive days at -15%, although at one point during the day was over 10% up
I would suspect tomorrow we will get an RNS saying there is an FCA extension for the current complaints, the deadline was Friday just gone I believe. This will help the share price, however assume this is a fire on a wooden ship being captained by fools. This RNS will be like a small rain fall, subduing some of the fire, until, the eventual 1% hits again each day and we drop back to crrent or lower SP
Lets go with 15k customers at 90% uphold rate at average redress of £4k, that will be £54 million (That is now), they will say for the year ahead we expect X which means we will be close to £100 Million redress. Cost of running the company is x, will be a loss this year I would suggest, I am sure the CEO leaving will no doubt be paid off as is usually the case in financial companies where the CEO has lost the company 100s of millions in share value
Stop saying 300k customers, is probably less then 200k now
I would assume due to the complexities of working out growth, complaints etc and what impact Covid 19 has had, may have thrown all figures out the window and had to be redone. To be fair now is great time to give bad figures, as the share price can't go much lower, like throwing a match on a fire
Morning All, Its Friday!!
Invest keeps saying about this 21p offer (20.9), this was made by a company who had done a lot of research into Amigo and came up with what they believed was a fair market value £100m. Who on here that held shares at the time were expecting it to be around 50p-70p? I know I was, however this is what was offered as a "Would you consider this price?" it wasn't a firm offer whereby RG sign the contract and walk away with £60mil. Since then this offer has gone, the company which offered "may" end up buying the "cheap" shares on offer, but as yet we have not seen any RNS to say a single vehicle is picking these up. I would not look to buy these with the mindset that there is a 20.9 offer on the table. It has gone, it probably won't be coming back. Please on buy these shares after doing your own research, and personally I would wait until all the 1% has been sold and we have seen the year end results. Then you can make an educated assessment of the intrinsic value of the company, if it is undervalued then buy, if not then don't
As I have said before I will sit and watch this one, I am in at around 60p average and will wait before I average down again, too many times have I done this before for the share price to continue to fall! My original buy was back in the £1.40 days (less than a year ago) GLA DYOR
I think people are reading last years data seeing numbers increasing, decent profits etc
Lending has reduced significantly due to Covid 19, customers numbers grow when you pay out more new loans than get settled or become delinquent. Assume higher delinquency and settle loans (natural and complaints redress paying back balance). Customer numbers will be lower, profits will be lower due to Covid and then the complaints redress hit. One reason the Cash Balance is higher (there not lending). I hope this does shoot up, I hope it goes to £1, but don't buy on hope, put £100 and Man City winning the premier league this year, you'll make 100's of £1000's, they won it last year!!
With the share price being so volatile and shifts of 1p causing large % changes, this will remain too volatile for me to average down at the moment. I feel a lot of people will be day trading this, Buy at end of day, sell early morning etc
We have to assume that the 1% selling each day has been priced into the SP, other than yesterdays RNS on complaints, I would expect this to remain around 7-8p till all shares are sold by JB. (Assuming no other RNS and EOY Results)
The only reason people will vote is if A. you are one of the people being "voted out" and you are also a shareholder, and B. those who are not employed by Amigo but fear that the FCA will say "the board is now not FCA compliant" and therefore we will have to suspend Amigo from Lending until a FCA authorised board is in place. If JB had a fully compliant and authorised board then I would be more confident the vote would go in his favour
It has been a perfect storm at Amigo for all things negative, propped up by a decent product and large customer base. When the storm is over hopefully they can rebuild, even getting back to half strength should net some returns