Member Info for Pauly70

@JBTHISTLE I'll keep an eye out.

Apparently, one of Dinosaur Dave's early suggestions to 'grow the business' was to launch a multi million pound advertising campaign to promote letter writing...

All he ever says is that Royal Mail's USO is an advantage that can be leveraged to create new products and services. I've never heard him elaborate and say what these would be. The reason being is that it is nothing but hot air.

Prescriptions are delivered by middle aged gig economy workers directly from pharmacies and they seem quite happy with their lot.

Nothing he could suggest would be remotely practical: shopping, bed baths for the elderly, Gardening? Nothing would surprise me.

Given that RM is the most expensive option at it's core business, the idea that it could branch out and provide services at a cost that could compete with gig economy and minimum wage workers is ludicrous and laughable.

@JBThistle
Talks have finished and none are planned.

Listening to Dave Ward's just released CWU broadcast update and his Groundhog day utterances; any more talks would be as futile as the last lot.

The shareholder meeting he's been boasting about for weeks will now take place in the New year, organised by ACAS(I would love to be a fly on the wall in that one ??)

He and I'm afraid a lot of RM workers seem convinced that the shareholders are going to enthusiastically embrace his 'business plan' that he's written on the back of a *** packet and desert Simon Thompson's. Seriously??

Ward is either a very good liar or he is genuinely convinced the union will win this dispute which given the facts and mood music is quite astounding.

The CWU will have to reballot it's members in the New year for further strike action and I actually think they may lose this one.

30000 people(over 25% of the workforce) didn't even vote in the first ballot and a lot of those who voted yes last time will change their vote on a second ballot as they are not as thick as Dave and his pals and can see the writing on the wall after five months of striking and achieving nothing. Do not underestimate the silent majority.

According to my boss, RM can start cancelling contracts at the end of Feb but this may just be speculation.

Either way, I think that this dispute will come to a denouement early next year. The CWU will be crushed and it's current leaders will become as extinct as the dinosaurs they resemble. Bring it on...

@jeffpluck
Ofcom regulate postal services on *behalf* of the government. It is their decision if the USO is changed. Ofcom has already notified the government that it has no objection to dropping letters on a Saturday.

'Only a £200 million pound saving'? Sounds pretty significant to me.

RM should call the governments bluff on the USO as let's face it; no other private company would touch it with a bargepole so RM have the upper hand and should take advantage of it.

@Isleworthspy IDS stated that from 4th October 2022 there will be clearer financial separation between RM and GLS and no cross subsidy.

Quite right too.
Why should shareholders suffer lower returns from the group because one part of it is so bloated, archaic and inefficient that it is losing £1.2 million per day.

In any other walk of life it would be called sponging or begging. 'Corporate sponging' indeed.

@Isleworthspy
I've never known a manager in my area doing 'outdoor visuals'. Totally unheard of.

Same people who are in on earlies and out of the door by 8:30. Not seen again till gone 2.

@Isleworthspy
The year we went to a single delivery was 2004.

Job and finish might have stopped in your office way back then, but it was alive and well in mine until SISO started very recently.

We have OPG's with 500 call walks who take 6 hours to complete now(if they manage that) when previously they were done in 4 or less.

At the moment all SISO(for those of us sufficiently tecnologically adavanced to manage it successfully twice a day) has done is made the slow ****s stretch their walks out to fit their finish time.

You know full well that nothing gets done about poor workers in RM and that management still have no power to performance manage weak or lazy performance unlike *every* other place I've ever worked. I'm sure that will change soon though and I welcome it.

Even now, we have posties who regularly go home or visit relatives during their duties(as they're so easy) and it shows up on the PDA's. They might get called into the office for a little chat and that's it.
PDA actuals cannot be used to discipline staff.

@ Talk2Much.
I bought shares sub £2 which I'll hold long term and I had a long CFD position which did quite well but which I closed today as I think tomorrows annoncement could cause some nasty volatility.

I think there might be a one or two humdingers announced tomorrow. The board know it's do or die now and trying to be reasonable with the CWU is a lost cause.

I've worked for RM for 17 years and it's blatantly obvious (as I'm sure you know too) that there is potential for huge savings if management are allowed to manage properly and not with one hand tied behind their backs by CWU intrasigence.

I think the share price has risen recently on the back of Kretinsky being given the green light to increase his holding(so much for Dave Ward's much heralded 'government investigation'into his malign foreign influence haha and because people(like me) guessed wrongly that some progress was being made. How wrong we were...

Well I'm guessing that like most people, after 5/6 days of intensive talks and no negative leaks that I hoped that progress was being made on the dispute and a deal was in the offing.

Cue todays update from the CWU and it's clear that we're as far away from that outcome as ever.

Despite now admitting(after weeks of boneheaded denial)that Royal Mails financial situation is dire and that the 10000 redundancies *will* actually now happen rather than them 'being just a fret (sic)to get you back to work' , the CWU are still adopting the same stance regardless. Astonishing.

They seem to think that inefficient, archaic, loss-making RM has an absolute right to be cross subsidised by the lean, modern, profitable GLS! They are utterly clueless about business and are only interested in playing politics and behaving like 1970's union barons/bar room thugs to inflate their egos and get the better of that Thompson geezer.

I'm guessing that the interim figures announced tomorrow will be even uglier than last months update and it wouldn't surprise me to hear that the redundancy figure will rise as a result.

Kretinsky should up his stake to 29.9%(the 12 month high is too expensive for a full takeover, if indeed that is his plan) asap and take control of the situation.

The board should announce the sale or demerger of GLS asap rewarding shareholders and forcing RM to stand on its own two feet and face the harsh realities of the modern world for the first time in its history. As a direct consequence of this, the government would have no choice but to relax the ridiculously punitive USO to make it sustainable.

The RMG board have been pleading with the authorities for years for a sustainable , modern USO and have gotten nowhere with that approach. Time to change tack.

I genuinely think that today is the beginning of the end for the CWU because of the ludicrous dinosaurs that lead it and my suspicions of how thick they are(particularly Ward) have been proved right.

They are a relic of a bygone age and should be treated as such.

Whether Royal Mail has a profitable, long-term future remains to be seen but it is clear that the current CWU deserve to play absolutely no part in it.

Just to clarify a few points as there is so much disinformation about regarding the dispute and it's progress.

Simon Thompson clearly stated on workplace on 10th Oct at 7:40 PM that NO negotiations had taken place between the CWU and Royal Mail, only talks about whether there was any way forward as the two sides are so far apart.
If any negotiations are to take place, he is adamant that they should be at ACAS(which the CWU are tellingly reluctant to agree to)

Simon also stated that a circular put out by the CWU about an improved pay offer to be announced by RM next week is completely untrue. Very strange behaviour by the union.

The 5000 - 6000 redundancies which may happen by Aug' 23 are on top of 5000 FTE's reduction that will be achieved by March '23.

Good luck to any RMG worker who still has any faith in the CWU leadership. In my opinion they are a disaster and shockingly inept.

Does anyone have a link to the analysts presentation please? Can't find one anywhere. I must see the performance from Ace Ventura that caused that share price collapse.

Haha. 'Failure in life', love it.
I've got a nice house, car and lifestyle. Certainly not bitter at life at all. Just massively frustrated at RMG not being allowed to thrive and prosper as it should and could be for the reasons I've already outlined(and agreed upon by every manager I've ever spoken too)

@Mike1974 all kinds of people work for Royal Mail(including many tradespeople) and in some areas the 'comparatively poorly paid job' provides a decent living and if you're part time, the ability to pursue many other projects too.

I never said I hated the job. It's one of the most bearable I've had and pays the bills nicely.

Also anyone who's traded equities for any length of time knows about their cyclical nature and the inherent pitfalls, but yeah, I 'm pretty pleased with my performance over time.

Cheers all
Yam er I mean Pauly.

P.S No idea who Yam Yam is, but they sound like someone I should check out :)

Oooh...someones rattled haha. @ Dynanofc
Are you a CWU rep by any chance?

I think you'll find what was briefed regarding redundancies was that there will be no *compulsory* redundancies for the length of the current 2 year deal. Maybe your head was so far up your arse that you misheard?

As for todays figures: you mean the ones that state letter volumes are down 18% on 2019 -2020 and that parcels have decreased 13% in the last quarter despite the millions of NHS test kits that are going through the system?

The market doesn't seem impressed either does it?

I said months ago that the share price was going down from just under £6 when others were mentioning 8 and £10 price targets and that's what's happened so if I've helped anyone on that score with my 'moaning' then good stuff ??

I've been trading equities for over 16 years and CFD's for 4.5 years; 'clueless' I aint as my portfolio performance testifies.

I've also run my own business, so am aware what that entails.

Can't wait to see the figures for the next two quarters after 'freedom day' and how the governments plan to have every adult double vaccinated by October will inevitably reduce the NHS test kit revenue stream to a mere trickle by year end.

Just one last insight into RMG for the outsider.
Since the pandemic, posties have not been allowed to work two to a van (even with masks on)because of heath and safety. The same two posties who would normally share a van,*have* however been allowed to work right by each other for 1 -3 hours every morning in a full office. Farcical.

Even now posties are not required to go back in shared vans if they don't want to and even if they are double vaxxed(which most are)

In Royal Mail, the tail(CWU) wags the dog.

Nice one @Henky. I'm glad you're enjoying life.
I don't think you still get a £30000 supplement. I'm sure I would have heard of that! You lucky sod you.
Your 'no regrets' on leaving is echoed by every one I know who left Royal Mail. No one ever misses it haha.

'Boom time' haha. You sound like Terry Pullinger.
That must be why we're lapsing a walk in our office and there's revisions taking place nationwide.

Why do you think the board want to change the USO at all if there's no savings in it?
If they had no intention of reducing headcount surely they would just leave it as it is.
If they drop letter deliveries on a Saturday, there is no need for group/floater/link posties any more.
They will probably only be delivering tracked and specials on a Sat' which will only require a skeleton crew working full shifts.
I'm absolutely certain there will be some vr's if the USO is changed, plus there are the revisions to consider too.

Haha. Nice one @OliGarch.
I'm sick of the place
I hope Keith Williams gets his way with changing the USO and the dropping of Saturday(?) letter deliveries means voluntary redundancies for which I will be an eager candidate ??

If you'd been inside an RM delivery office, you'd better understand why Royal Mail can be relied on to disappoint.
The business is a shambles. Management can have all the good intentions and plans in the world, but all of the mail traffic is forced to go through a local delivery office for the final mile delivery.
These places are mostly archaic with an ageing, sulky workforce who hold intransigence dear to their hearts and still behave as though they're working for a state owned monopoly.

The UK business made a profit last year solely because of the black swan event of the pandemic which resulted in total lockdown, otherwise it was forecast to make a loss.

As the saying goes: even a bad business can make money in a good market; step forward Royal Mail.

Royal Mail is massively hindered by weak management, an ageing workforce who oppose change at every opportunity and the fact that it ceded far too much influence to the union to get it's current 2 year deal over the line.

Also, any increase in tracked parcels is almost certainly due to Covid test kits. How long will that revenue stream continue for?

3 posties in my medium sized office self-isolating and 2 of them are double vaxxed over 50's
We're lapsing 1 walk.
We'll know about trading for sure in 2 weeks time anyway.