Member Info for paul30661

Probably waiting in case another bidder/ white knight is sited.

I think the AV bid will be formalised either Wed or Thurs this week.

In fairness to Denby, and for the record, he/she did post yesterday morning that:

Aviva should walk away dgl price is far to high will be back @170p soon:-)

but came back in the afternoon with:

Looks like i was wrong did not think Aviva would bother with DLG :-(

Gorillaz

The Ageas share price is only as high as it is because they didn't pursue a bid for DLG.

Their own share price tanked when they announced their interest and bounced when they withdrew.

If they were brave enough to reappear here and get involved in a bidding war with Av. or anyone else, their SP would tank again. In addition, a factor that put people of last time was their proposal involving an element of overseas equity, whereas Av. is obviously UK.

Potential other parties who might gate crash could be Allianz or Buffett, but I suspect they would prefer to wait to see how Av. get on with restructuring /integrating DLG and then just buy Av. instead.

Av. goes ex. final dividend around the 10th April and was 22p this year

Just a thought, but if this deal completes in the first quarter of 2025 rather than first half, do people think we might get a DLG dividend and an Av. one ?

Alternatively, if the deal doesn't complete until after April, perhaps sell out of DLG via the market forgoing the 'up to 5p' dividend, and purchase Av. for the (possibly still) 22p final ?

Just an aside but anyone heard from siddeek this morning - or has he crawled back under a rock?

One of his many recent doom posts was a week ago today: 'There is only 25% chance this bid will go through', on Monday it was 'Now it looks like a turning point towards 150 from today', and on Tuesday it was 'It has already started towards the south to reach 150 again within a year?'

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for people having differing opinions but only if they can back up their arguments to educate (or at least entertain!) other posters. Every day's a school day!

Shandy,

The RNS states 'dividend payments of up to 5 pence', so even that's not nailed on yet.

Hiscox seems well supported today and after an uptick yesterday too.

And if it does, dlg will either get back to 235p organically over the next 2 years as the recovery gains traction, or it will be taken out by the next bidder (as DLG management will have no credible defence left).

In the meantime, I presume that with your repeated gloomy views, you are either not currently invested and /or you have a short position to back up your opinions?

Perhaps you would care to disclose which ? - as otherwise your views without substance are somewhat meaningless.

Though nice to have it confirmed, my understanding is that the discount rate review, and the probable outcome, were flagged and known about much earlier this year.

If this bidding does come to nought, the share price will tank (again) but the turnaround of dlg will continue and the price will either eventually get back to 250p by itself in 2-3 years, or the DLG BOD will have no defendable answer when the next bidder arrives in 6- 9 months time. .

Lomond Group, which has taken over some 65 mostly-smaller agencies in recent years, has been sold for £450m.

An announcement this afternoon that Lomond “has agreed a new partnership investment from ICG, a global alternative asset manager” appears to confirm the story reported by Sky News last week that a sale was to be agreed shortly.

This afternoon’s statement says: “The transaction will support Lomond’s continued growth strategy of further consolidation through M&A in its existing markets and provide additional capital to drive expansion into new regions.”

As a result of multiple acquisitions, Lomond has over 50,000 properties under management. Its brands include Brand Vaughan, Dale Eddison, DJ Alexander, Hardisty and Co., John Shepherd, Julian Wadden, Linley & Simpson, and Michael Jones & Co.

LDC, the private equity investor part of Lloyds Banking Group, was previously the largest investor in Lomond; that is no longer the case, although LDC will now reinvest in Lomond alongside new chief investor ICG.

Imo the market will know this week whether any other bidders are likely to appear and that will influence avivas approach to the next price proposal and the mix between shares and cash.

As for us mere shareholders it may well be that we have to wait until next Sundays papers to get any real insight into what's going on.

We saw with the ageas bid that Dlg don't communicate with their smaller shareholders, and av will only publicly declare if they are told to fo again and want to go direct to shareholders.

Times article here

https://archive.is/TDYDi

Imo, no way Av will go to 300p without pressure from another bidder emerging.

DLG history, even their recent history, has all but sealed their fate

If Av. goes to shareholders with 270p even if it is in more Av. shares, it would be game over for DLG

I think the Sunday papers will give us smaller shareholders an insight on opinion and likelihood of AV's chances and whether another bidder may emerge.

The Ageas approach earlier in the year didn't flush out another bidder at the time (as far as we know, the BOD are appalling at communication) not even AV, but it's unlikely that others wont be looking seriously at what could be their last chance to purchase a blue chip brand at a relatively cheap price.

Perhaps Ageas could be tempted to mutter a few words if only to encourage AV. to open their purse a little wider to secure the deal?

Whether a consolidation of existing providers or a way to get a good entrance, DLG could be a very good buy for someone.

thanks james,

yes, i appreciate that it will move quite a bit no doubt, but i just couldn't reconcile how some on here were saying that the current values equates to 240p for dlg when av. hasn't fallen that low (on my back of *** packet maths, av would need to fall to 453p or thereabouts for it to put the proposal for dlg at 240p)

(for the record, av. currently holding steady at 476p down 13p after the announcement but also yesterdays rise of 7.5p)

Just to be clear, the RNS states the (rejected) proposal was based on:

112.5 pence per Direct Line share in cash, funded through Aviva's internally available cash resources; and 0.282 new Aviva shares per Direct Line share.

With Av shares currently trading at 474.50p, doesn't that make the proposal worth 246.3p to DLG (I.e. not 250p, but also not 240p as mentioned elsewhere here) ?

if Av were to actually offer, then I suspect their price would reduce further, especially as, if they do offer they know that they will need to increase either the cash element and /or the equity element.

As I understand it, one of the downsides of the previous Aegis approach was the reluctance of shareholders to hold stock in an overseas company (I don't think they were willing to have a dual listing in London)?

James, I very much doubt AV will come back with a better offer next week. Why would they?

They will leave it a while for the market to digest the effect on AV, but primarily to see the reaction of DLG shareholders putting pressure on the BOD to engage and whether other bidders emerge.

I wouldn't see any AV offer being tabled (not forgetting, there isn't actually an offer at this stage) until just before the Christmas deadline.

Comments suggesting 280-300p are VERY misleading imo.

More wishful thinking that actual sense

Aviva want DLG, but don't need it.

If DLG management don't engage, and no other bidders pop up, AV may come back with a slightly improved offer (particularly if the AV price doesn't tank) but they know that if DLG reject another offer and DLG shares slump again, the BOD will not survive a third round of bidding.

DLG got caught out badly previously by the level of claims following storms and lack of reserves.

I wonder whether they have corrected their strategy sufficiently given the recent and likely forthcoming storms this winter ?