Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Interesting to note that in Q3, Vametco’s Production costs were $22.4 per KgV at an average Dollar/Rand exchange rate of 14.62. This was due to a much more stable and higher production run-rate at Vametco.
With the Dollar/Rand now at 15.32, and indeed been averaging higher than 14.62 so far in Q4, we should be able to assume that the Production costs at Vametco are now lower than $22 per Kg/V.
Great to see with Vanadium prices at circa $37 per Kg/V in China and circa $33 in Europe (and we think higher in the US!)
A much more healthy position it seems than the de-rampers would have you think!
Just my opinion of course and please do your own research.
It is in my opinion, and this most definitely should not be taken as investment advice, but I think that we have a LOT to look forward to over the next few months which could trigger quite a substantial re-rate in our share price:
Worldwide Infrastructure Projects
-$1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill in the US for Infrastructure projects will hopefully be announced over the next few days (the US is our largest customer, so this alone could trigger a big re-rate with higher demand for Vanadium and higher Vanadium Prices!)
-Other worldwide Infrastructure spending including a $1.35 Trillion proposed plan in India.
Vanadium Production Increases
-Bushveld’s production should increase from circa 3,600MtV in 2021 to circa 4,600MtV next year
-Bushveld’s production should increase to circa 5,600MtV in 2023. These are pretty big Increases!
-Production costs should reduce dramatically following increased production.
New Electrolyte Plant
-Electrolyte Plant should be completed in H2 2022. This is being built now, not 2-3 years away!
-Potential Electrolyte Contracts to be announced in Q1/Q2 onwards next year
-More Clarity on the expected increase in Profits from selling Electrolyte into the VRFB market (this could be a game-changer for Bushveld!)
Potential Eskom Contracts
-Announcements of potentially Very Substantial contracts with Eskom over the next 1-4 weeks
Enerox/Cellcube Investment
-Potential Enerox/Cellcube stock market listing and announcements of orders. Bushveld own 25.25%. For me this could be absolutely huge for Bushveld (looking at the MCap of Invinity) and a possible trigger for a re-rate.
Mini-Grid at Vametco
-Financial Close and Construction start of the Mini-Grid at Vametco, opening up a very big market for Bushveld Energy throughout SA and Africa.
Increase in VRFB projects in China
-The VRFB Industry is finally growing, with Substantial 100-500MWh projects being announced in China, which will require very large amounts of Vanadium/Electrolyte from next year.
With the huge Worldwide Infrastructure spending gaining traction, combined with the greater adoption of Large, Utility Scale VRFBs being announced, it is in my opinion that we are going to see a new, higher base-price for Vanadium moving forward.
With Bushveld’s planned Production Increases (especially at Vanchem which we 100% own), lower production costs, and our obvious focus on the VRFB industry, through our Investment in Cellcube and our new Electrolyte Production Plant, it is in my opinion that we have a lot more to look forward to than some people are suggesting!
All my opinion only of course. Please do your own research!
Thanks Lindon. Very interesting.
When the Duferco partial payment in shares was announced on the 18th December 2020 (at 12.97p), the share price rose quite dramatically to a close of 22.9p on the 8th January. I wonder why?
So hopefully the same dramatic rise will happen again this time around!
I wonder if this explains why there has been an increase in negative comments from certain people recently to try and drag the share price down.
I repeat my view from the other day.
Once the market starts talking silly numbers then the bottom is usually close to being in.
#BMN have signposted that they are likely going to deliver their strongest quarter to date in Q3 and with it a stable Vametco.
That's a solid starting base from which to build success.
Give us then a better understanding of the ramp-up profile/cost plan in Q4. A mini-grid financial close and possibly even some VRFB contracts and then let's see where we are.
Anything can happen in investing and this market is looking pretty unforgiving at this time.
However, despite some delays BMN remains on track to deliver a stepped rise to 5,400mtV and their electrolyte plant in 2022. So in 14 months.
At some point, that eventuality simply has to be given more appreciation. Yes, they may need more funding at some point in 2022. It will depend on the vanadium price and the balance sheet.
However, despite me including such a scenario, it's not a given but if it does come I believe we're likely talking 10-15% max even at these sorts of levels and I expect several milestones will be achieved prior to it (possibly) being required so raising at these levels I find unlikely.
So risk yes but big risk? No.
At 5,400mtV and selling electrolyte at some point, this is a minimum +£500m company based just on the mining.
Even at 1.5BN shares (so all Orion converted + Duferco + working capital allowance) that's a 33p a share company.
Purely an example designed to demonstrate what the dilutive 'risk' really is all about.
I sold down some BMN at 11p because I was overexposed across the board.
I still hold 2.5m shares in my SIPP and they aren't going anywhere.
In my trading account, I am slowly adding some because I believe 9.5p on an 18-month timeline delivers. With the possibility that pending news flow sets the bottom on what is a heavily oversold chart and the fact that the potential upside can be significant once the expansion plans/works really start to come into sight.
Of course, vanadium prices need to stabilse but I stand by my previous thoughts that China has an oil-tanker type effect when it comes to V production I believe that will begin to dissipate as the incentive to blend become less and less.
But it remains a risk and is a major ingredient as to why BMN is on offer at sub 10p...
I am happy to take said risk and have added and am watching closely for more.
Biden in the US, our biggest market for Vanadium Sales, will hopefully be signing signing a new $1trillion Infrastructure package over the next few days.
In India, Modi has announced plans for a $1.35trillion infrastructure package.
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-modi-says-135-trillion-infrastructure-plan-be-unveiled-soon-2021-08-15/
The EU and other parts of the world our doing the same.
Plus we all know about the huge 100s of MWh of planned VRFBs in China which will need a huge amount of Vanadium.
Fortune has also stated that if the Vanadium prices stay low, the new proposed Vanadium mines will find it difficult to obtain finance to be built.
Bushveld are looking to supply 5,000 to 5,400 MtV by the end of next year.
So why is everyone trying to create so much fear?
Mogwhy- I see you are having a discussion with Megaman2 (the so called investor who ****s Bushveld off continuously day in, day out on the other board).
He seems to be spreading more lies again about Bushveld, this time adamantly stating that we have only paid $3.75m towards Enerox so far.
Well, if you read the RNS from the 27th April, it states the following:
On 31 March 2021 Bushveld Energy invested US$5.0 million into VRFB-H and has invested approximately another US$2.7 million to retain its 50.5 percentage holding of VRFB-H.
So Bushveld have invested circa $7.7m, not $3.75m. Quite a big difference.
The major positive from this is the confirmation that Cellcube/Enerox are closing orders for their VRFBs. In this case an 8MWh system, in the US, which will be a huge market over the next few years.
So when Fortune stated in his last Crux interview that Cellcube were already selling and making money, this is obviously a part of what he was referring to.
Bushveld own 25.5% of Cellcube/Enerox, so this is exceptional news for us.
If you look at Invinity Energy Systems, (who we also have an Electrolyte Rental agreement set up with and a first right of refusal to supply Vanadium to), their MCAP is around £110m. Looking at Cellcube’s projections of orders next year it is clear that they will be on the same path as Invinity, and as they have been around for many years, I can see them being just as or more successful.
At an £110m MCAP Bushveld’s stake would be worth around £28million.
It is worth noting that Invinity was valued at double this a few months ago, (when Bushveld started selling their £13m stake!), so you can see how valuable Bushveld’s investment in Cellcube can be.
I think once the market realises this, we could very well see a pretty impressive re-rate!
I wonder where they will buy it from?
‘The bill is worth nearly $1 trillion (€842 billion) and calls for $550 billion in added federal spending. Among the major new investments would be $110 billion for roads and bridges; $39 billion for public transit and $66 billion for rail; $55 billion for water and wastewater infrastructure; as well as billions for airports, ports, broadband internet and electric vehicle charging stations.’
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/us-senators-reach-deal-on-bidens-infrastructure-bill/a-58728962
Things are hotting up I feel:
https://mobile.twitter.com/BushveldMin_Ltd?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
‘In its investigation the US Dept. of Commerce found that “the present quantities and circumstances of vanadium imports do not threaten to impair the national security as defined in Section 232’
https://mobile.twitter.com/BushveldMin_Ltd/status/1421069685047627779
Just looking at Paludina’s spreadsheet. Thank you for keeping track of the deliveries.
That’s circa $4,500,000 banked just for July! And this only tracks US deliveries.
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/nitrovan-shipments-to-the-us-183
Just want to say a big thanks to you and others who offer continuous support for Bushveld, and fight back against the slippery, low-class negative and nefarious characters who frequent this board.
If everyone had the same passion as you about the company, sentiment and share price would be far higher than it is at the moment.
I have every faith that H2 will be a turning point for the company. Higher Production, rising Vanadium prices, lower costs, and a greater uptake of VRFB’s worldwide will hopefully equate to a much higher share price.
I think there will be a turning point in the next 2-3 months where sentiment will change. This maybe due to higher Vanadium prices, but I truly believe Mikhail and his team are going to surprise everyone and we will see Bushveld Energy finally reward us shareholders with some very large VRFB contracts.
This has been a VERY tough share to hold over the last couple of years, but it is my opinion that we will see the share price quite a bit higher than it is at the moment towards the end of the year.
All in my opinion of course. Trust your own research.
The last interview he gave which was posted by Bushveld Minerals/Energy was a Proactive Investors interview in August 2020.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rNrrcHcE9aM
That’s nearly 1 year ago!
The article I posted yesterday was one I had to dig through the internet to find.
He is the CEO of Bushveld Energy and we haven’t heard from him for 1 year!
I am really hoping there is some big news about to be released around the Eskom tenders, and he has been deliberately silent building up to his moment of glory.
Where are you Mikhail?
Nothing that new in here but good to hear from him!
https://dai-global-developments.com/articles/innovative-storage-solutions-to-improve-energy-access-in-emerging-markets
I think it is fair to say that the shareholders that are happy with today’s RNS are those that do not trade the share and are happy with the increased production and the share price rising.
Those that do not like today’s RNS are trading the share and have been caught out somewhat by the unexpected early RNS and the share price rise. Including some LTH’s it seems!
I am very happy with today’s RNS as I do not trade the share!
Nice try to promote another share Richard08.
Go to 2mins 43 of the same interview.
Which is the one Mining Stock out of them all that you would buy right now?
John Meyer- Bushveld Minerals!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=neG9Omb4x7g&feature=youtu.be
So Bolgas- our production costs at Vametco are predicted to be around $24 per kg/V for 2021. The Vanadium prices at the moment are between $41-44 per Kg/V.
I suggest you read the below for our added costs as your predictions are way out:
https://www.bbnbigbitenow.com/post/bushveld-minerals-review-of-q1-2021-update-part-2