The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
@Paludina- am I right in calculating that nearly 600,000Kg of Nitrovan has been delivered to the US since the end of October?
If so that is quite a considerable amount of money coming in at $42-45 per KG/V.
I understand another approx 70,000 KG Nitrovan was delivered last week!
Bushveld Vametco’s production costs are circa $24 per KG/V.
Delivery times are I believe around 8-10 weeks so the price in US dollars could be higher than $45/Kg V.
The US market accounts for around 45% of Bushveld’s Nitrovan and Vanadium Sales.
Very positive news
https://importkey.com/search/Bushveld
In my opinion only. Please do your own research.
2 other mistakes I’ve noticed:
‘We have increased our ferrovanadium price forecast to $42/kgV for the full year from $38/kgV and to $44/kgV for 2023 onward.’
Their chart says $40 for 2022, $38 for 2023 and $40 for 2024 so they need to update this.
And
‘We have also amended our valuation for Bushveld’s 84 % owned electrolyte plant being built in South Africa’
As far as I am aware Bushveld own 55% of the Electrolyte Plant.
Come on Sp Angel, this is simple stuff and you are paid to get this right!
Calamari- stop lying mate.
Bushveld certainly do sell to China. Look back at 2020 and 2021.
Bushveld didn’t sell to China during H1 this year. Do you know why?
Because the US Vanadium prices were selling as high as $75 per Kg/V and the European markets were very high also.
But you know this already, don’t you.
Interesting to see that whilst the average PI is flapping around listening to the fear-spreaders, those that actually do some research it seems are accumulating.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/bmn/ownership
Calamari- If you look back at the last few years, Sales have been increasing to China. So yes, Bushveld do sell to China.
However, as the Vanadium Prices were massively higher in the US and the EU in particular during this year, Bushveld sold predominantly into those markets in H1.
Bushveld it seems will generally sell to the market where they can get the highest value for their Vanadium, with the US generally being their largest market over the last few years (45% has been sold to the US this year).
So by the end of this year, now Kiln 3 has been commissioned at Vanchem, it is forecast to produce circa 2,600 MtV per year.
Which means Vanchem’s production costs should come down considerably.
2 Primary Producing/Processing plants, both producing 2,600 MTV each next year at a cost of under $25 per Kg/V. (Hopefully!)
Fortune has stated previously that Vanchem’s costs will be higher than Vametco’s but it’s products command higher pricing with higher margins.
If Vanadium prices stay elevated in the US past $40 per Kg/V, and China’s infrastructure push continues, Bushveld should be in the money whatever the market throws at it.
All in my opinion only. Please do you own research.
BenAlder- Vametco’s cost guidance is between $22.7 and $23.5 per Kg/V, not $28.
From the RNS:
‘Vametco's production guidance has been marginally increased to between 2,550 mtV and 2,650 mtV and the cash cost guidance has been maintained at between US$22.7/kgV and US$23.5/kgV (ZAR346.9/kgV and ZAR358.7/kgV) (previously production guidance was between 2,450 mtV and 2,550 mtV).’
‘Rongke has delivered a total of about 560 MWh worth of redox flow batteries as of August. An additional 400 MWh worth of storage will be added to the Dalian project.
The company, established in 2008, operates a factory in Dalian with a yearly production capacity equivalent to 1.2 gigawatt-hours, or 1,200 MWh.
"We'll expand the annual capacity to at least 4 gigawatt-hours by the end of 2023," said Wang Xiaoli, general manager at Rongke. An enterprise affiliated with a state-run research institute strong in batteries owns about 20% of the company. ‘
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/China-and-Japan-duel-over-liquid-batteries-for-green-energy
Some very large Infrastructure Projects in construction. The property market in China may be struggling somewhat but Infrastructure as a whole it seems isn’t.
Hopefully this will result in sustained Vanadium price increases.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-08-25/how-china-will-spend-1-trillion-on-infrastructure-to-boost-economy?leadSource=uverify%20wall
So just outside the Jan-June reporting period. Due to the logistical delays, I think it is safe to presume these were recorded from the VERY elevated US prices of over $60 per KG/V in April/ May.
That is a LOT of cash coming in after June. All my opinion only. Please do you own research.
Thanks to Paludina’s records on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/Paludina/status/1567577831332257795?cxt=HHwWhoCxpe7uk8ErAAAA
Have to say I agree with BBN’s criticisms of Bushveld with regards to the Electrolyte Plant. There has been absolutely NO forecasts on projected earnings, sales etc.
The Bushveld Energy:World Bank document from January 2020 that is being discussed on Twitter is actually something I found and posted on here after trawling through the internet.
As BBN says, Largo prepared a presentation around the increased margins of selling Electrolyte over selling V205. So why aren’t we doing the same?
Hats off to Fortune and the team for the now stable Vametco and the refurb of Vanchem Kiln 3. If Bushveld are producing 5,200-5,400 MtV by the end of this year then that sets us up very nicely for the future.
But Sell the Story on the Electrolyte Plant Fortune and Mikhail!! Why the secretive nature on this?
In Fortune’s words this is The Largest Electrolyte Plant Outside of China.
We should be doing everything we can to promote this. Why aren’t they doing that??
Hopefully we will see China Vanadium prices start to Increase over the next few weeks.
Not our main market, but this should have a knock-on effect to European prices and hopefully keep the US Vanadium prices high.
‘In July, China's infrastructure investment growth rebounded to about 15 percent year-on-year, thanks to sustainable funding and policy incentives as well as a low base effect, UBS economists led by Wang Tao said in a note sent to the Global Times on Thursday.’
‘Last month, the construction of 3,876 large projects across the country started, with total investment reaching nearly 2.4 trillion yuan’
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272220.shtml
In July.
Due to logistical challenges that have already been outlined, can we presume that these deliveries were from the $60-$75 price range we saw back in April/May?
Even at $60 per Kg/V that is circa $15m revenue!
Tanya Chikanza (CFO) also confirmed in the Conference call that US prices are still trading at around $54 per Kg/V. She also confirmed that in 2022, 45% of our Vanadium sales have been to the US so far.
Thanks @paludina for the information.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Paludina/status/1553682613495275521
All my opinion only. Please do your own research.
Good post Codejunkie.
I personally do not believe that anyone who constantly posts negative comments about the company, are actually invested at all. They were maybe invested before, but are now either just trading the share, or are shorting it.
Otherwise why would you damage your own investment by constantly criticising it on a public forum.
It is like showing a prospective buyer around your own house that you are trying to sell, and constantly criticising it while you walk them around. You just wouldn’t do it, would you.
-Production Guidance of 4,200 MtV this year still on track
-Production Guidance of 5,200 MtV still on track for next year.
- US Vanadium prices still circa $54 per KgV
- Nitovan sells at a circa 7.5% Premium to FeV so we could be achieving higher than this
So from 2021 to 2023 our Production is forecast to Increase by 65%! And with the higher run rates our costs will be coming down.
So why the negative reaction?
This looks like a very false drop to me.
Compass/Halespur- there has been severe load shedding in SA which has affected Vanchem, and Bushveld are still on track to meet guidance of 4200- 4400 MtV this year, despite being on the lower end of this.
Where are they missing targets?
So Fastmarkets/Andrea Hotter are absolutely correct.
$54 per Kg/V is VERY healthy pricing for Bushveld. We sell circa %50 of our Vanadium to the US as per the 2021 figures. Hopefully more now.
Add in the $1.2Trillion Infrastructure Package in the US, we will hopefully see Vanadium prices rise quite quickly again.
I like this quote from Citigroup:
“We have entered a new cycle of infrastructure development,” said Yu Xiangrong, chief China economist at Citigroup. “That’ll be a new normal.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-14/china-readies-1-1-trillion-to-support-xi-s-infrastructure-push