Member Info for Patexd

People buy it fof different reasons but commonly because it is like change you can put in your pocket and its known to keep its value long term . well depending when you bought it. Some buy for an Armageddon scenario -some think it will be a hedge against inflation. Some like it because it is global -its an international currency -but maybe tricky taking in an out of other countries. Indeed some think even if it went down in value never mind give it to the kids Capital Gains free Inheritence tax free and let them hopefully wait till it goes up again. But WHERE DO YOU KEEP IT ? In avault you have to pay and do you not want it where you can in emergency you have it by you. Might it go down in a global crisis ? It might -it might depend upon the circumstances. So AT HOME. Under floorboards -a hole in a thick wall? In a safe well alarmed and set in concrete?But will it deteriorate in quality -must it be kept in prescribed temperature and humidity range orwill it deteriorate physically or in money terms for not being stored professionally'

We would all like to know. With BP selling off assets how much dividend can it pay in the future. If oil price keeps going up need we worry ? Just keep holding them ? With the Fed planning to print money again and $$ going down oil price goes up. If Tea Party Republicans have a bigger role in a Republican Congress might there be a retrenchment.I have to say I don't know -but Helicopter Ben (Benanke) acts like a Democrat and he is a Republican-what will they do with him ? Republicans want tax cuts to stimulate the economy that's what we need here too not QE. Answer to your question -don't know. If you have a lot maybe take a little profit. If you only have 250 keep them for the divi I say !

Will the March dip actually occur ? Warren Buffet doesn't like it . George Soros believes it the ultimate bubble Marc Faber is keeping his 'whilst the likes of Bernanke Larry Summers and Tim Geitner are runningthings. The view is that gold has further to run but the run is not endless. Of course it is a hedge but in the Armageddon scenario don't bank on a bar buying you a loaf of bread. Its not a bad hold whilst Gordon Brown and maybe god help us Ed Balls are around either. However I prefer to stay in dividend paying useful oil and gas power utilities and good well run companies with good earnings -like PSPIreporting today. Yes you can ride the gold bubble as long as you understand that one day it will pop but never really crash -as with all things if you didn't get in fairly low for a hold then maybe the squirrel approach is best !

My belief Gold less attractive this year -in fact may be off till later in the year when it rises seasonally. Why ? Feeling that it has had a good run -that the panic mightbe over and central bankers are less inclined to dish out cash or bail countries out. Tightening and austerity does not favour gold and it has little yield in equities. See a nice big slump this summer in YAU -HOC will hold up because of the silver. Better gains ingood quarterly divi paying shares. Corporate bonds no upside -but long dated bought at very cheap prices worth keeping for the yield and appreciation when they are eventually into the shorter end -if you can live long enough!

Sterling temporarily sheltered because of the Greek impact on the euro. Some say euro is doomed but that would need a political upheaval - so many French Germans Dutch even Italians would love their old currencies back -maybe the Spanish might get their peseta back. Nice for the holidays if we then had a good UK Govt looking after our £.$ seems to be the favourite at the moment Aussie dollar better to keep for yield.Euro could bounce back temporarily against sterling nearer election if an indecisive outcome looks likely.

A number of factors have worked in sterlings favour recently. Sentiment towards euro affected by the Greek debt position-and there is uncertainty as to how it will work out and it could be long drawn out.Also it is not yet known how many other of the PIGS will actually be affected in a similar way. The ECB will do more than paper over cracks but others like the Germans will demand more from these countries in pain as they hae to pick up the bill and just how much will the populations of these countries accept? Some UK domestic indices are looking better admittedly on the back of QE by the BOE and although it is questionable how long we can go on like this as long as we are and we appear to be no worse than other countries it is working in sterlings favour. Then there is the uncertainty in America some of the matters very temporary political ones but longer term political and economic issues that raise whether Obama may become a lame duck President. If he does would not surprise me if he resigns and says he has better things to do with his life !But this has strengthened the $ because weaker domestic demand means less imports and the prospect of more conservative economic policies generally there make the euro less attractive.When the $ is stronger against the euro sterling usually moves about 50% of the move on its back. Fundamentally with Big Mac comparisons sterling almost down to parity a year ago can still afford 1.20-1.25.What is the outlook -very complex and short term predictions only safe like with the Met office. Continuing favourable UK figures might cause hung parliament or Labour small win -a Labour small win at least would be more positive initially for sterling than a hung parliament which would cause a rout but would cause more trouble down the line if they do not deal with the problem of our lack of production and marginal taxes on incomes.A Cameron win would be more positive for sterling initially but the fact remains in question whether they would be able to generate the private sector growth of the right kind ie geared to exporting in particular with a higher £ and whether slackening domestic demand would be insupportative of business revenues that would be needed to finance such growth if restrictive domestic policies are persued.So I see limited upside for sterling against euro unless there is real difficulty in those weaker economies. As I live here and using it here and using euro for travel I will keep sterling rather than euro but will try to add to the quantity of my sterling by getting euro on the dips and getting rid of it again whilst changing notes for euro on good days for travel. A for places in the sun maybe keeping euro from cheap rates is a good idea as you will be sure of getting it come what may -in a German or French account or in good dividend paying european equities. This is not advice just thoughts ! P

My view on currency at present is that euro strength will make it more difficult to sell outside thezone . raw materials and oil are more expnsive but releved by cheaper $.On balance it is negative and think the euro cannot continue to rise but the correction required is a hardening of the $ when QE ends.Sterling then could weaken against $ because of their stronger economy but potentially less than the euro.I see sentment to sterling still weak in coming weeks but next year external factors may move to its advantage so we will probably see stabilisation. I will be watching the UKbalance of payments quite a lot to seeif apart from weakness in imports and less money flowing out in travel and property investment -there is much development yet in export volume.

I cannot see any real relief for sterling until after the election structurally. However anysign that the economy is no longer falling will take off the downward pressure. Conservative Party Conference in which they will be on parade and hopefully having something to say on Wealth Creation and biglow tax bands the latter I bombard them with as the potential winning strategy might give a prospect of light on the horizon together with cuts in thepublic sector. I don't do forex but hang in euro high div shares at present including Santandar to collect euro cash.

Difficult at present time to assess the future path of sterling -it is bit undervalued but can see no great reason for it to recover. Holding euro in divi paying stocks like Comdirect Enel and Trasmission Electrica Tete Nazio that pay decent dividends.

I find so much very expensive when travelling in euro-land paying from exchanged sterling. I think the Big Mac test or variants show that sterling is rather cheap and euroland retailers restauranteurs etc a bit greedy. Prices in Cite Europe at Coquelles I thought were ridiculous and unless they reduce these silly prices they will all go out of business. Will there be internal deflation there or will the euro decline. I can see evidence of somedeflation now in UK in food prices at long last but the bigger problem is inflated Govt expenditure and inflated local authority spending -on the wrong things and their fat pensions of course.So I am not particularly bullish on sterling either -yet -Isuggest November decision onfurther BOE QE will be important threshold.

Yes it has come in 0.1% better than expected. 1 month can be ablip. However I have another thought -that the recent QE tranche could be the last . In that case the risk that BOE will not decide on any additional tranche in November will move some sentiment in favour of sterling. Also with some resistance in the inflation figures recently might suggest that BOE will move to a hiking stance earlier than previously thought. Then Gordon Brown might like to see sterling rise come what may after to give the impression the chavs will have cheaper hols to Lloret de Mar next summer.So this particular currency position is very dificult. Sterling is a little undevalued -and this is obvious from its tendency torise before the last BOE QE tranche was announced unexpectedly in August. However despite this the UK economy has many uncertainties and there are often movements in currencies that are contrary to what one might expect. I am watching my positions in Spanisah banks carefully!

What I meant Monaco with those two posts is that I see sterling under the cosh rest of this year and Spanish banks paying good euro divis-just a different approach.Sterling has declined rathera lot Iam thinking next year what might engender a rebound. -Improvement in trade balance-end of QE -expectations of BOE exit strategy.What might derail it-BOE stuck with overpriced bonds it can only sell at a loss. Gordon Brown wins the election .

Moneyweek were bleating about Spanish banks ! But best managed in Europe !!! Santandar BVVA paying the divis too Banco Popular -never got mine from Hoodless Brennan -but Sabadell the 4th largest doing ok . Ex div is (Madrid SAB) on 1st September. This is the one that looks after the expats in Sollbank and just bought a bank in Miami where there is large Hispanic population. When I think of Spanish banks I think of Spanish Armada and GOLD.

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Well I think with latest tranche of QE sterling under the cosh and there might be some more in November. Mervyn King senile old fart. Only silver lining is that the euro not without its problems due to the size and complexities of the zone but at least they do in the ECB still think that thatthey do not flinch any suggestion that the value of their currency is their slightest concern. Sooner this scoundrel is booted out the better. Keep sending them complaints I do will post the address -they do respond even by post but if you write regularly response dries up if in same vein like mine but sure they get read and the MORE THE BETTER. !!

ECB President Jean Claud Trichet is opposed to QE as German Bundesbank -they have given a little ground on liquidity but he says quite openly-'my signature is on the notes -we are expected to guarantee it for the next 50yrs'The ECB view is that member countries must curb their budget deficits including us. Some analysts recently been saying -buy unwanted unloved sterling because they want their forex dealers to make money -but whilst they can cause a flutter sterling is unloved for good reason -the LABOUR GOVERNMENT DON'T GIVE A MONKEYS ABOUT STERLING -as for the MPC -well Mervyn King has been showing some teeth lately and if he keeps showing his teeth sterling will look less sickly. Mandlesohn now talking of 10yrs of cuts -but what cuts and who pays. With Labour you will be sure to find out that it will be the low paid taxpayers who earn their living whilst their welfare clients get indexed link rises plus free central heating and teeth . Until we know whether business exports and earners will get a fair deal any rise in sterling cannot last.

Your post Monco of 24th april very good Monaco. Sterling has had a bumpy ride recently.I personally am very undecided about the Euro v Sterling and would certainly not bet on it.Some of the european bank shares have been improving strongly like Santandar Deutsche Bank BVVA.Taking the longer view ether sterling is oversold or it has since 1997 been overvalued and we have come down to earth. Sterling rose on the back of the property boom - I am wary o going along with the the sterling bulls until after the general election and we know what will be done to manage the budget deficit and whether policies will be put in place that will encourage exporting.The depreciation of sterling is cutting imports. I do not think that because everything is expensive for us in europe is adequate reason to re-rate sterling substantially -it is just that we do not earn enough in the world -investment is stangled and earners are overtaxed by a high spending government that thinks we can carry on its own sweet way !

Why don't you post on Vedanta site ? Not many will see you here. Vedanta very good =or it was at 500oddp last year - yes how much more up and when. High prices indicate excess demand -like until last year -but do we have excess demand and insufficient supply now. See Vedanta has eased back -how much more?

Having said that -gold is protection against historic sterling weakness -though it needs to be said sterling may be temporarily a little undervalued -and at present no great reason for particular upside in the gold price -nor is it yet oversold. Some rumours of IMF selling gold -might they better wait until autumn when the price eventually peaksfor the year

I don't think gold is a necessity and certainly no asset if you overpay for it. If all the gold came out of the vaults and were used as currency -what would it be worth ? Not very much and in dire circumstances of global catastrophe you would be bartering it would be useless.The central bankers need to defend their paper money value. Gold is not suitable for a global currency because it cannot be finite there is always more tucked away somewhere if you have to dig deeper. When it threatens to replace paper money -it is a warning that paper money is mis -managed. Yes the IMF should sell it. Trichet is right lax budget deficits are the problem The Bundesbank have it right.Oil is something different -it is a necessity -and divi paying oil shares are the best inflation hedge you can get. Gold isnot an inflation hedge -it is like the VIX index - it is a yellow substance!