Member Info for passiton

As Dougb found last year, the budget provisional estimates by that TL Ministry P&I for 2024/25/26 were all in the 2-3 billion range, with 2027 down to around 800m, this years entire Island budget recently ratified at $1.65b, those provisions, surely can only be for Metinaro if built, FID due by end of 2023 🤔

And will Chuditch be developed to feed it, DoD decision by 18 Dec 2023, FID end of 2023, are China now coming to fund that huge projected increase in budget 2024-2026 🤔 What else could that projection be for, Sunrise tenders for 2030😉

MOU signed by cabinet in October, pre Gusmao visit to chat with Xi, China overseas development ministry and the TL Ministry of Planning and Investment, under it projects include Metinaro and Betano/Beaco, now known as the Northern project (P.I.T All domestic fuels imports) and the Southern Project.(oil/gas ex tasi mane exports)

Last week as Filthy spotted, the senior Chinese Gas man made a visit to the Island to chat with Gusmao et al

🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆

Do not recall seeing this last year, 4th November 2022, outgoing PM Rauk also had a chat, around the time of the Chinese Conference, Ambassador did a large piece on it, including this, one year on Xi and Gusmao , did sign that cooperation agreement. Chinese take away coming (please Chud sale and end this saga 😂🤣😂)

Signed Article by H.E. Dr. Xiao Jianguo, Chinese Ambassador to Timor-Leste

This country is its people, and the people are the country. ”Both Chinese and Timorese governments adhere to the people-centred development concept and insist that the fruits of development should be shared by their own peoples. We totally understand that the Timorese people have gone through an arduous struggle for its national liberation and independence, and now they are faced with the challenges of national development and reconstruction. Proposed by Xi Jinping, the Global Development Initiative(DGI) and the Global Security Initiative(GSI) are highly compatible with the development needs of Timor-Leste, such as poverty reduction and green development, economic diversification, which will bring both sides a promising future for a high-level cooperation. China expects the two sides to reinforce practical cooperation in all fronts, especially in the fields of health care, ENERGY, education, agriculture, INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION, etc. Let’s share the development opportunities in the New Era and jointly benefit our two peoples!

Now let me think, what Energy Infrastructure Construction does Timor Leste urgently need 🤔

Metinaro P.I.T. including Gas/LNG Import facilities and 90 day tank farm to feed its 3 being converted to Gas power stations. 😉😜

🤔 and who do we know that has Timor Sea gas (SDP 2011-2030) to supply that need from 2025/26

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔 got it Drill ready Chuditch 😉😂

Https://youtu.be/hG7QFTalIns

The plan was, for production revenues to set Tower up for the much bigger South Africa and Namibia projects, after all these years, probably now as much chance of one of them moving, as Cameroon spud in 2024. 🙄🤦‍♂️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♂️

The only major change this time, is the wording, moving from on a wish and a prayer and might get a rig sometime never, to being close to finalising a rig booking, that in itself on the JA scale is progress 😂🤣😂 can he now get it over the line, make Cameroon (license returned) and the Banks happy and after all these years of saying it, actually DRILL NEXT YEAR !!! 🙄

That's nothing, September 2022 he said in an update about the finance , if not today expecting the bank documents in the next few days, here we are over a year later , STILL WAITING !, 8 weeks pfftt, is nothing to JA timescales history. 🙄😂

nothing to understand, ja has got zip done in the past 4 years, other than dilution and constantly kicking the can down the road, with the rig and finance coming, we will drill next year routine, now we also stand with an expired license.

basically the market has tower priced to fail, ja gets of his lard **** and actually gets something done and the market will respond in kind, with a very serious bounce.

the recent coms, suggest he has been given an ultimatum by cameroon, get it done and you can have your license back, if not ! you know what happens next, the market as said, agrees and have us priced to fail. that will change on any positive news flow, buy/hold/build at these bottom pickers prices, as little to fall and a looooooooooong way to rise.

place ya bet, red or black , or in this case success/fail, blue sky rise or ohhhhhhhh 💩💩💩💩💩

Mike, Sunrise is a side issue now , with all its complications still in place, China's leader Xi Jinping (my friend name drop often by Horta 😂) met with Gusmao PM , 3 days after the TL Cabinet met and signed off on an MOU for cooperation between TL's Ministry of Planning and Investment and the Chinese overseas development corp, Xi said BRI would now get involved and cooperation on Oil and Gas development, so all is now in place, for China to turn up the heat and invest big, plenty of spare huge offshore licenses remain vacant, onshore projects , Beaco Gas/LNG Exports facilities, Betano Oil refinery expansion, Metinaro P.I.T Gas/LNG Imports facilities and 90 day tank farm (domestic disasters security) all 100%

TL projects, nothing to stop China moving in on any or all, Woodside and OZ only have direct commitments on Sunrise under the settling of the Maritime borders, replacing the old JPDA Agreement.

TL have said since 2002 NO to all processing options, just you can wait and come to the Islands still yet to be built facilities, its why many Majors and Tier1 players left the area, so the uncertainty and stringing alone, cuts both ways, Woodside after Shell and Conoco Phillips departed , stated no interest in the on Island plan or the risky crossing the seismic Timor Trench, with a pipeline , seabed expected to move 30-40 feet or was it metres, over the lifetime of Sunrise production.

If China move in then yes , it will be BRI and state companies taking firm control, usually sweetener deals put in place for preferential TRADE deals, not unusual for China to throw in $300-$400m freebies in the process, many an African nation has had entire new Government multi building complexes thrown in for free.

As said, always comes with strings attached and they will not stand for any rules or restrictions the locals want to impose on them, they will fund in huge amounts , BRI annual budget in the trillion not small billions range BUT will expect their plans to be adopted as they see fit, not tinkered with.

China announced coming to play, we await updates as to what the extent of that assistance will be, as we still await Santos and ENI, to sign off their new license psc's , they to have their own long term plans for Darwin and a 2nd pipeline to their own refinery, due Jun/July 2022, no prizes for guessing why , that has not happened yet.

Busy period of movers and a shakers coming, let's just hope an early casualty (jv or sold on) is Chuditch.

For back at the beginning of this years Presentation, Yeo ho ho both for sale "at the right price"😉

Meg has been 100% consistent on that statement since she took over as Woodside CEO, PSC first. Been her go to fob off all the way after JV meetings. Also pretty much the same statement for Sunrise for many years now, as the can constantly kicked down the road, as it appears to have been again, with the repeat of what they said in February but now have a permission slip from TL to start, what in February was supposed to be getting done before the end of this year, ffs 😲🙄

Anything you see on sites like this prefixed with a hyphen , on the real lse are Cancellations or Amendments to volume or price, earlier print , will be repeated (same time stamp) then a 3rd print with the Canc/AMND (same time stamp) and if the trainee has fat finger trouble, could be more, once saw 9 attempts to get it right, once actioned, those repeats drop off the real lse but remain on many 3rd party sites, skewing daily volumes etc. 😉

Labels buy sell and unknown , nothing to do with the MMs or the Market , they label nothing , just print TRADES, 3rd party sites all trying to be helpful and failing miserably on most shares daily, all after the trade volume massaged, with a BEST GUESS based on what its Algorithm thinks is the current MID Price. Its as basic as you get and useless, does not keep up with rapid movements within the spread or recognise changes immediately either, happy as a pig in💩as prices remain within its range🙄

All above its mid = BUY (Never the case)

All below its mid = SELL (Ditto)

All exactly on its mid, delayed or now seen outside of its current range, chokes = UNKNOWN, that popular button we all push daily. 😂🤣😂

Its as tragically simple as that, market offered the simple modern tech fix to add real data at source long ago, declined choosing TRADITION over tech and they also view every TRADE, as both a buy and a sell, eg you the buyer from a floor trader MM the seller and any other combination you can think of. 🙄

Trade, they said in talks since Autumn 2021, so now advanced talks, how long is that piece of string along 😂🤣😂

As you can see, Boil/SG have already commenced some things in the 2nd period, Chuditch CH-1 area planning (fspo etc) just need the final piece of the long standing puzzle to fall into place, a YES you can and get on with it in 2024.🤔

The 18th of December is the new extended deadline as Eddie said to Drill Chuditch or give it back, the psc in force for several years more, the first stage years ends, the second stage requires us to conduct further work including at least one drill, that's the decision to be made, think years 1-3 became (4 years) Sundagas got the licence in Nov 2019

PSC Extract

The minimum work program in the initial three-year period includes the seismic reprocessing of 800 square kilometres of 3D seismic data and 2,000-line kilometres of 2D seismic data on the 3,571.49 square kilometre block.

The second license period will include a post-well evaluation study, drilling of one exploration well, and development scenario planning for Chuditch discovery while the third period includes geological and geophysical studies, development scenario planning, and drilling of two exploration or appraisal wells.

Think the initial agreement was 7 or 9 years psc with option to extend (production license) 🤔

Should be Eddie, just a formality as you say, now in talks on both financing and a rig/date late 2024. Would still like to think the extension and Metinaro decisions linked, suits the Island to let us carry out our planned FPSO, what else are they going to use, take what they need and we get to sell any excess to the wider regional market.

If Metinaro does not go ahead, kills their domestic security and conversion plans until at least 2030 and Sunrise supply, so perhaps that's the delay to all the background talks and a firm commitment, what's the rush, if the Island still has an all comes to the Island wait for beaco policy, likewise, what better decision could they make to get the wider sector back onside, than back up their constant stream of we are open for business, with a big fat YES to our Chuditch plan and showcase it again (not sunrise) , as they did to launch the bid round.🤔

PSC does not expire, the 18th is when they have to make a commitment to proceed into the next phase

October MOU Strategic planning and Investment dept with China overseas development corp - Gusmao and Xi meet - November China's Gas man visits Gusmao - Metinaro FID Nov/Dec - Chuditch drill or drop 18th Dec - Drilling plans now in place with anticipated spud CH-2 Q4 2024 - The islands 3 power stations to complete conversion to Gas/LNG - Supplied by Metinaro P.I.T Petroleum Import Terminal, Gas/LNG Import fac and 90 day tank farm - by 2025/26 - Long before Sunrise/Beaco operational 2030+ - Metinaro facilities stripped away from the original co location at Beaco plan.

Chuditch FPSO - Metinaro - Domestic supply security , mic drop 😉🤣

What else do they have that is drill ready and can be fast tracked by a senior offshore player, to meet the Island deadline and SDP , Quote using timor sea gas..... if it looks like , waddles and talks like, then it 🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆

With Andy B's longstanding connections with the Island, formed Sundagas and arrived 2016 , floated 2018 in Singapore, all the time assisting them in building and training their own workforce Timor Gap/ANPM , rewarded in Nov 2019, with the awarding and showcasing of Chuditch NON-TENDER for services rendered, to launch the bid round, enter Boil, nepotism related Butlers on both boards.......the rest is history, 8 years of cooperation for AB and TL, which still continues to this day. 😉

The revamped department of planning and infrastructure last year, dropped the name Tasi Mane, revealing its two main projects, the Northern project Metinaro PIT (by 2025/26) and the now Southern project Betano/Beaco Oil/Gas (2030), this is the same government department, that the Cabinet signed off on MOU with China, 3 days before Gusmao and Xi had their face to face, Xi curiously saying his BRI would now get involved on TL, strange choice of words as the BRI have been on the Island for 20 years, building the Government palace, other buildings and major roads and port facilities. 🤔

Can only have meant, will now up their game and get involved in the LARGER projects.

Looks like a set of 🦆🦆🦆🦆, last week the head man of the Chinese GAS dept, visited the Island, talking investment, our drill or drop extended from Summer 2023, to a very specific 18th December 2023, shortly after TL announced Metinaro studies to be completed and FID final investment decision, to be made by the end of 2023, some had it down as by November. 😉

Could also be a fine piece of Geological work, Tasmania is part of Australia, broke away from the mainland (Pangea stuff) and if you note the dip at the top of the Island, it slots nicely onto the coast around Geelong, just below our other assets.

That whole edge of Australia has a long tradition in Gold mining, could be a lot of those historic Gold mines missed out on the overburden rich in REE, could be a great move for the future by COBR and lead to other missed on trend deposits.

Just thinking out loud 🤔