Member Info for pasajerodeltoro

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Time/date of execution Price Currency Volume Trade value* Trade type Trade flags MIC
10:34:38 20-May-2020 24.84 GBX 2,011 499.53 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:34:38 20-May-2020 24.84 GBX 4,000 993.60 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:34:38 20-May-2020 24.84 GBX 7,000 1,738.80 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:33:40 20-May-2020 24.99 GBX 1,000 249.88 Off-book XLON
10:32:49 20-May-2020 24.95 GBX 53 13.22 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:31:01 20-May-2020 24.95 GBX 4,842 1,207.89 Off-book XLON
10:29:45 20-May-2020 24.87 GBX 4,899 1,218.38 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:29:45 20-May-2020 24.87 GBX 5,966 1,483.74 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:29:45 20-May-2020 24.85 GBX 24,834 6,171.25 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:29:45 20-May-2020 24.81 GBX 4,600 1,141.26 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON

Time/date of execution Price Currency Volume Trade value* Trade type Trade flags MIC
10:34:39 20-May-2020 24.74 GBX 15,043 3,721.64 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:34:39 20-May-2020 24.74 GBX 17,373 4,298.08 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:34:38 20-May-2020 24.77 GBX 2,046 506.79 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:34:38 20-May-2020 24.77 GBX 4,954 1,227.11 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:34:38 20-May-2020 24.74 GBX 19,755 4,887.39 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:34:38 20-May-2020 24.80 GBX 32,157 7,974.94 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:34:38 20-May-2020 24.80 GBX 5,644 1,399.71 Automatic Trade XLON
10:34:38 20-May-2020 24.80 GBX 12,479 3,094.79 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:34:38 20-May-2020 24.81 GBX 2,000 496.20 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:34:38 20-May-2020 24.84 GBX 2,011 499.53 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON

Time/date of execution Price Currency Volume Trade value* Trade type Trade flags MIC
10:43:33 20-May-2020 24.83 GBX 1,202 298.46 Off-book XLON
10:39:51 20-May-2020 24.87 GBX 25,000 6,217.25 Off-book XLON
10:36:58 20-May-2020 24.84 GBX 13,598 3,378.15 Off-book XLON
10:36:17 20-May-2020 24.86 GBX 300 74.58 Off-book ACTX XOFF
10:35:00 20-May-2020 24.65 GBX 5,711 1,407.76 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:35:00 20-May-2020 24.63 GBX 7,000 1,724.10 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:35:00 20-May-2020 24.65 GBX 11,531 2,842.39 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:35:00 20-May-2020 24.65 GBX 1,760 433.84 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:35:00 20-May-2020 24.65 GBX 7,000 1,725.50 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:34:39 20-May-2020 24.70 GBX 5,996 1,481.01 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON

Time/date of execution Price Currency Volume Trade value* Trade type Trade flags MIC
10:50:50 20-May-2020 24.72 GBX 7,000 1,730.40 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:50:50 20-May-2020 24.68 GBX 100 24.68 Off-book ACTX XOFF
10:50:50 20-May-2020 24.84 GBX 574 142.58 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:49:48 20-May-2020 24.82 GBX 1,954 484.96 Off-book XLON
10:49:20 20-May-2020 24.82 GBX 1,014 251.67 Off-book XLON
10:48:14 20-May-2020 24.72 GBX 588 145.35 Off-book XLON
10:45:44 20-May-2020 24.85 GBX 41 10.19 Off-book XLON
10:45:24 20-May-2020 24.74 GBX 7,000 1,731.80 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:43:50 20-May-2020 24.83 GBX 801 198.89 Off-book XLON
10:43:33 20-May-2020 24.83 GBX 1,202 298.46 Off-book XLON

Time/date of execution Price Currency Volume Trade value* Trade type Trade flags MIC
10:53:25 20-May-2020 24.77 GBX 8,076 2,000.18 Off-book XLON
10:52:40 20-May-2020 24.77 GBX 18,578 4,601.21 Off-book XLON
10:52:27 20-May-2020 24.72 GBX 5,870 1,451.06 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:52:14 20-May-2020 24.72 GBX 5,870 1,451.06 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:52:14 20-May-2020 24.72 GBX 5,870 1,451.06 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:52:13 20-May-2020 24.72 GBX 5,402 1,335.37 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:52:13 20-May-2020 24.72 GBX 5,870 1,451.06 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:52:12 20-May-2020 24.72 GBX 6,092 1,505.94 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:52:12 20-May-2020 24.73 GBX 7,000 1,731.10 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
10:51:54 20-May-2020 24.72 GBX 7,000 1,730.40 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON

10:45:24 20-May-2020 24.74 GBX 7,000 1,731.80 Automatic Trade ALGO XLON
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?fourWayKey=GB0001500809GBGBXSSMM

https://www.discussthemarket.com/poll/106/are-you-a-buyer-seller-or-holderlong-term-investor-dividends-or-short-term-trader-price-action/1/

Breakout very soon & Total knows it! They want this company bad.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

"Negative rates on UK gilts for 1st time".
- Bullish for this stock because of the yield hunting pension & endowment funds & venture capital will gladly buy Tullow's bonds again if they have any yield at all greater than zero.

Use this to check the trades. It's faster.
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/TLW/trades

For those without level2 access.
Set this to Realtime charts:
https://www.level2stockquotes.com/level-2-stock-quotes.html

If you want the sp to rise, keep the algorithms busy with regular dummy buy limits at rising prices.
Let the MMs front run your order. When the price drops again, reset the process with another order.
Some platforms let you do this, some don't. As you can see it breaks the shorting algorithm.

Check this regularly https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Tullow_Oil

Production remained on track at 2,250-2,450 barrels of oil equivalent per day, IGas said. Operating costs in sterling were also in line with plans. The company said it benefitted when the dollar was stronger. With an exchange rate of $1.2 to the pound, it expected annual operating costs to average about $27.5/barrel of oil.
https://drillordrop.com/2020/03/25/igas-plans-for-covid-19/

There will be bonds converted to shares, BUT...
THE DIVIDEND WILL INCREASE (AS WTI & BRENT WILL INCREASE).

CERP fell from 4.9p to 1.05p from September to March, a 79% drop in value. 80% since 2018 from it's 5.25 start.
241 to 8.306, 97% drop over the same period, but it was around 230s-240s since 2015.
CERP has dropped overall since inception. It's now around the median price of 2.5p.
TLW was stable for a long time between 2015-2019. The median over this period was around 200p.
In my estimation, CERP will hang around it's current price for a while, but TLW will double at least, possibly ten-tuple given investment bank interest in the stock.

The planned sale to Total of $575m worth of assets is part of a process to generate $1b in cash, to settle bond debt repayments & pay dividends. 2020 bonds are settled. Next up is 2022, when more assets will be sold.
https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/tullow-oil-plc-agm-trading-update/
https://www.dividendmax.com/united-kingdom/london-stock-exchange/oil-and-gas-producers/tullow-oil/dividends

2019 Full Year Results:
86,800 bopd production $355m free cash flow $1,683m sales revenue $11.1/bbl underlying cash opex
- Net proceeds from the Transaction will be used to reduce net debt, strengthening Tullow’s balance sheet, reducing ongoing financing costs and moving Tullow towards a more "conservative capital structure" (aka "dividends").

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/dividend-vs-share-buyback-repurchase/
- "Since the size of a dividend payout is smaller, compared to a buyback, it allows the company to maintain a conservative capitalization structure every quarter rather than just hold large piles of cash."

My prediction:

BOND ISSUES WILL END, EXISTING BONDS WILL BE CONVERTED TO SHARES, DIVIDENDS WILL CONTINUE and YIELD WILL BE "STEERED" TOWARDS 7% (MAX BOND YIELD). Based on $2 divi payout, PT=29p near term.

If EPS rises, divi will rise. Brent oil could easily go to $50/bbl over the next year as C-19 goes away & international trade turns up a gear. If this happens, it will increase revenue by 40+ % which will more than offset the loss of 17k boepd production from Uganda. 2019 production was 89k, it's now 72k. 17k/89k=19% decrease in production.

Brent is now around $35, and with hedging Tullow got it's effective price to $53/bbl. 53/35-1=51% increase in price.
Brent will likely rise to this level anyway over the next year, reducing the need to hedge.

REMEMBER THAT THE $575M is part of the $1B cash that will be used to settle bond repayments.
When the bonds are settled in 2022, EPS will rise again and so will the dividend payout - will probably go to $3.
At GBP:USD= 1.22, this will give a yield of 14.64% in today's money based on a share price of 25p=$0.305.

Production:

CERP: Test wells=*80->250 bopd x60=4800(min)->15000(max) bopd (total) ???
*based on 2012-15 tests & oil is in emulsion mix.
Snowcap-1 well was drilled in 2010 and a flow test performed in February 2011 during which time the well flowed 29.5-degree API oil ((29.5+131.5)/(141.5*0.159)=7.15 bbl/ton vs WTI=7.6 bbl/ton).

TLW: Producing 89000 boepd*= Ghana 63,500 bopd +CwA* 25,500 boepd =100% oil
*Total includes Jubilee Business Interruption insurance equivalent of 2,700 bopd for 1H 2019. - TLW is listed here under the CwA (Compact with Africa agreement), details: "#21 Parent Company:Tullow Oil, United Kingdom, Destination Country:Ghana Sector:Coal, oil & gas Investment:$250 m".

Resource:
CERP: 3mmbbl /60 wells = 100% oil emulsion mix : 5 fields – onshore Trinidad
20-400mmbbl potential at 12 sites (SWP). Weg Naar Zee - Suriname: 24mmbbl STOIIP.
Snowcap Field contains 1.8 MMbbl of reserves
Snowcap-1 has produced 11,400BBLs of oil on test to date.

TLW: Proven reserves & resources: 1178 mmboe = 11% gas+89% oil : 42% WA +58% EA

Sales revenue ($m):

CERP: $520k x 60/6yr=$5.2m/yr - POTENTIAL.
• Net cashflow delivered per well $520k, 85% over
first 6 years

For 1H 2018-1H 2019:
TLW: $872m , $905m - ACTUAL.

Underlying Cash Operating Costs peer boe :
CERP: $9m/yr (av. projected over 6yr) [calcs based on $45 per barrel flat]
*TLW: 9.0, 10.9 ($/bbl)
*Cash operating costs are cost of sales excluding depletion, depreciation, amortisation, impairment loss and under/over lift movements.

- TLW av. operating costs at ~$10/bbl are 56% of UK's offshore brent which was $16/bbl in 2019.
- TLW is producing. CERP is exploring/testing.
- TLW production: ACTUAL 89k boepd vs POTENTIAL 4800->15000 bopd (max)

Earnings may be more negative for TLW atm, but it's temporary.
This can be affected by increased spending by the company or market conditions.
This doesn't take into account how much cash and credit the company has to hand.
The real give-away when comparing stocks on an investment basis is the enterprise value and market cap which shows how much long-term investment there is in the company, indicates capital value of the company & will be related to how much cash the company has available.

So, if you are a short-termist and daytrader, feel free and blow your money away on CERP.
If you are a long-term investor, it would be advantageous to choose a bombed-out stock that has had dividends historically, with a higher market cap and higher average Net-Asset-Value over the previous 5 years.

Sorry, but between the two there is just no contest...
Data ; CERP Figures; TLW Figures
Shares in Issue 895m; 1,403m
Market Cap. £18m; £349m
Market Size* 50,000; 10,000
PE Ratio -4.556; -0.270
Earnings -0.45; -92.13
Dividend 0.00; 3.73
Yield 0.00%; 14.980%

*Market size is the size of the people who could potentially want your product. It can be measured in $ turnover, volume of product sold, or other measures. For lse, the product is "shares" and "Market size" determines the number of shares that a market maker can trade at the quoted price, so it doesn't mean anything if one stock has a higher size than another, except that it affects the bid-ask spread in % terms, and therefore the liquidity of the market.
CERP may be better for day-traders, but it's crushed to dust when the important fundamentals are taken into account.