Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
So i am now thinking that the trading update is not really gonna have a huge impact on SP
So either sell with a small gain on next spike / around trading update
Or hold for medium / long term??
Key question if the acquisitions are unlikely to grow value, are all bets on whether they can pull off the ingenuity play?
I always buy overpriced fragrance every year. Every year its always the same. Silly queues etc in store...its the easy win xmas pressie
Not this year.
I have the lookfantastic app for the first time. I did buy one in store as its not yet on the app....but £53 was my total retail in store fragrance spend this year ie 1 item.
There is going to be pain in Jan in the bricks and mortar retail sector with reduced footfall and much less spend. I noticed in other areas too compared to last year.
Note charlotte tillbury repaid furlough cash after exceptionally profitable online beauty trading.
Some analysts are suggesting online xmas day and boxing day will be stratospheric this year.
All in either people have have reduced overall spend or online has gone nuts (or maybe local smaller retailers have cleaned up too)
Time will tell
Nuri... a gap in my understanding which two profitable parts have been spun out?? Thanks
All decisions are based on incomplete facts and by definition take into account a finite set of information at the point when they are made
I won’t call anyone insane, because taking a punt and blind luck are not invalid strategy’s. Its a matter of keeping perspective. Someone might be looking for a quick 5% return against inflation.....if you don’t know the objective, then you can’t really judge
Nuri...i am fairly new to THG having got in at £1.87. Someone posted a really good video link last week...it was a interview with the chief financial officer @homebase. I’ll summarise the video
1) execution risk...significantly cut...over using trad development methods. I think homebase mentioned Easter go live
2) Most important....NOT and I repeat Not a retailer (Homebase) talking to an IT partner (Ingenuity), but a retailer talking to a retail partner with deep knowledge of both retail and tech.
Looking at high st footfall people are worried and seem to be being cautious.....ermmmm buying online.
All in short term it looks like positive expectations are building for the xmas trading update.
Ingenuity...jury is still out, but dismiss CFO’s at your peril. If you understand the IT partner market, you will know skills retention / domain knowledge is a significant issue. THG ingenuity with a few more successful “ go lives“ with major retailers, might look like an Altogether different proposition. Confidence and customers for ingenuity might start flooding THG.
Just a view and a very limited one...dyor
Key point is reassess mando. I am still in. I have stop loss at 75% of my outlay (peanuts compared to you guys) ie £1.40 at which point i really think about next steps
I did say i would look closely at the CRM strategy / digital space which takes 6 months. If anyone wants to look at at a stonking operational update, have a look at the dunelm operational update from a few months back. That looked really good to me. They pivoted pretty quickly opening centralised fulfilment and offering thousands more Product lines during lockdown when most of their trad sales sq ft was closed and product lines constraint by shelf space in store. I decided against them, but the point is the ability to execute on a strategy at pace, with a clear vision / leadership.
I am much less clear about what is most important for THG, no doubt others have better understanding feel for the journey. Hoping that good news and a more positive assessment emerges in 2022
Okidoke don’t forget about the development risk. Have been around panr for years, so long memories. In The near term it has not been mentioned much, but i would like to see what they say around the wet oil strategy following last seasons findings.
Beyond that Hats off to scot126 has called this very well, his early note on the fund raise stating it was Both a trade opportunity and a long term invest.
Anyway i posted in response to scot i though they had divested another 1% of shares so to see it down to 66 instead of 96m shares, well Happy days....whose to say it wont be £1.20 this side of xmas
Ignore the day to day. Good or bad the basics will win out. Enginuity will either be something or nothing. Moves up or down short term matter not. I hope the rump of the business justifies £2.50 longer term...with an outside bet Enginuity might come good!!!
Scot i simply compared mcap and resource estimates for both.
Is it pointless to think both companies are more realistically valued relative to each other in Q4 21 than in most of H1 21
Well Mr reality won the argument hands down
No news on chair -
No news on sales
No news on ingenuity
No news from softbank Re options
All interesting variables, that will become clearer in time
I will average down at £1.05 otherwise switch off till new year and reassess then.
It will become clearer soon enough one way or another
No urgency to read details for this morning, but i concur that getting very familiar with the numbers is very valuable.
For my money i think they show 88e & Panr sp /mcap now be broadly consistent vs earlier in year, where it was much clearer they did not appear to be