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Ermmm. Please not history repeating
- world class asset
- just need to drill
- drill goes on and on, all sorts of unexpected unforeseen stuff.
- then bump goes The Texan play
What makes you thinks calcs all shot???
If it were then All i would say is FUBAR
Re the flow test
1) farm out will get process going
2) risk is there for re flow test, but may be i am hearing what i wanna hear on this front, but they are confident because the depths 10k feet and on land position mitigate risks
3) the price is what is, and i am sure many remember the cracked the code hyperbole here re austin chalk and polk etc etc. World class assets etc etc and then one problem after another with the drilling.
So you pays your money............and
Here is my take.
1) validated 302m boe worth $2.7bn in the bag
2) Jay reckons it 500m boe pro rata worth $4.4bn
3) two further plays as yet unexplored. They are releasing details next weeks according to video
4) 2 additional players have approached them. Bob says at bit late in the day. This was a bit kind of smug but no bother, the clear read across for me imho was
A) they were in advanced state re existing players.
B) again i read that personally to indicate farm out a real forth coming possibility.
They kept talking 1bn boe. Which if exceeded is $8.8bn npv.
I am in at 15p just shy, but for my tinkle i am gone at 90p. I said i would go at 50p, but i cant bring myself to chuck towel in at this point
Guys this was 24p a couple of weeks back. The risks we saw in March are now better understood, so why would we see this as anything other than a pretty normal rebound. The spread is a little wide, which might be saying something, but would love to see this push above 40p this Autumn. Are there any realistic SP expectations if an RNS re a farm out were to come with perhaps a double whammy re resource upgrades. Would this be £1+ in those circumstances?? Opinions please
Or.......
The spreads being ridiculous along with the periodic sp spikes then fall backs, were indicators that MM’s were trying to lure retailers in leaving them with virtually no meaningful exit.
I am no chartist but, i was not happy with what I observed and thus stayed out.
There were no RNS’s showing thresholds passed.
I think this is being portrayed much better than the reality of it.
Lets see what happens, but my guess is delisting
Kynance cove so an hour down the A30. I think everyone is just socially distancing on the beach this year. The weathers lovely.
I was sitting on spanish steps around this time last year, but in The circumstances you cannot beat Southwest England. I never tire of its beauty.......
Steadydanny i have been suspicious of the spread for a long time. Its been A major put off.
i stayed out so the only thing for me to learn here is whether that was a good or bad move.
Hard times are coming when greggs are only selling 72% of their 2019 sausage roll volumes. Down here in Kernow people are on their hols, but it’s definitely not as it was.
Hence I have fingers crossed for people. When people roll out emotions it usually their nuts are on the block.
Bobby F - should try and help people see facts clearly not goad them. This board has been so fact poor its hard to be solidly for or against
Kettle i got slightly more that 6k on panr and the punt there is around the farm out, so 24p is good but I can point to many facts on that one that indicate its worth staying in.
I just got back from beach thinking i would have been proved right in my hunch on this one, or been congratulating some brave souls.
Fwiw i hope the inconclusive RNS is followed by an astonishing RNS tomorrow. I will still be tracking this to see what the SP ends up at if its not suspended. In many ways thats where i can get value from this board.
I am amazed at how the same stupidity either ramping or deramping a share with the same sort of views carries on from board to board. I watched many board do the same.
Here i tracked and looked at things and it was the rather limited evidence base, that made me shy away.
Anyway have a go all you want, just remember there are people out there genuinely working hard to try and get a better return on their savings than the miserly interest rates or the rigged highly leveraged platforms, which are just excuses to take mug punters money off them.
You would have thought bb’s might have been more of a helpful place, rather than making it much harder to see wood for the trees.
No de ramp here. My posts will affect nothing and no-one.
Not investing is just as acceptable as taking the plunge. If anything once your money is on the line its much harder to be objective about a situation.
I would love the scenario of a 3pm RNS and a share price of 20p. I would be over the moon for everyone and kicking my self for holding off.
Sharedealer2019 i am not a holder. As i said i am here for one reason only. Because i think its a possible. I am in Panr and I invested not quite at lowest, but 14p. That has a solid asset, but it won’t be going multi bagger. Here could. But the facts are thin on the ground.
I have no agenda here, other that to see if I can make a few quid, I have followed the board looking for glimpses of insight. Bobby Firmio has been playing you all, but he knows the essence if his line is basically true.
1) that without a RTO this must suspend
2) if it does, liquidity is an issue
3) upto now the spreads have been heavily against the small guy
All i am saying is there is very little to warrant a punt here as even if RTO occurs then nothing suggests 10p. If 1.5p is it worth it? Youall tell me
I see some really worrying messages on here. Stick a few grand in get £15k out in 6 months.
That is barking mad. Firstly
1) you need to be more specific. Lets £3k in, so you expect a return of 5-1 after suspension?
2) look at say panr recent low of 7p. Sitting on concrete asset, now 23p. So 2-1 return since march lows and minimal risk of suspension.
3) i am sure your all better investors than me, but at least try and quantify your risk. For me something like this has to be a 30-40 bagger to justify risk. Today you would probably want 75 bagger, yet price does not reflect risk reward.
£5k sunk into this today is most likely to be never seen again, yet die hards refusing to sell or at least manage some of the risk down
Buzzarreeeeee
????
Look I have read this board for months. It’s been no different from so many other boards. I didn’t take the plunge. Why? 1) Bobby Firmio’s opinion 2) the spreads seemed to me to be permanently ridiculous and designed to lock you in. 3) the potential return vs risk didn’t seem high enough.
I am praying Bobby is wrong and that in the next few mins you get a positive outcome, but please...you need alternative views if these boards are worth much at all.
Re the RNS
I do not think this changes much short term. However it is an astute move. All yours and my money is riding on these 16 people, doing a first class job.
I sleep better tonight knowing these people have just been incentivised, rewarded and motivated. You should too!!
"In spite of a retooling of many deepwater projects that reduced their break even costs to the high $20’s in some cases, most of the project sanctions we’ve seen have been “advantaged oil.” This term refers to oil finds that made economic for development by the availability of existing production infrastructure. These typically are smaller, satellite fields with reserves of a couple of hundred million barrels".
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/This-Could-Be-The-Beginning-Of-A-Tremendous-Oil-Rally.html
I saw this quote taken from a article a few hours ago by David Messler - is this not exactly what sums up the PANR story in Alaska, especially re the proximity of the infrastructure and Dalton Highway etc etc.
If the hypothesis is that big players are going to have to fund multi billion dollar deepwater CAPEX programmes, why would a biggy like BP, Exxon or Chevron not be seriously be looking at PANR's assets given they are
1) On shore
2) Contingent reserves - 76.5m barrels
3) Right on top of infrastructure
Thoughts please on the Data Room. Surely some North American based execs can still get a internal flight down to the relevant office??
On the last Webinar from PANR, there was a forecast of $45 per barrel, I think I recall by 2030, ie 10 years out, but this article suggests WTI at that price 10 months out.
DYOR
just doing some simple maths.
A number of Oil tankers have been hired recently to hold 2.2m barrels of oil. At current price lets assume $12 a barrel discount to market price. So to fill up these tankers and it costs you $26.4m to acquire the asset.
M.V. ARCTURUS VOYAGER is just an example of a large tanker, with 2.2m barrel capacity. This costs you Lets say you get a Deal at $200,000 a day. That is $1.4m as week.
if you do
High 2.2m bbl *$60 = $132m dollars -
MId 2.2m bbl *$45 = $99m dollars
Low 2.2m bbl *$32 = 70.4m dollars
So drop the tanker speed from max to say 10 knots and and it takes you 4 weeks to get from Mid East to Charlotte NC. So lets say docking 19 May 2020.
By the time I offload on the 19/5 if the price of oil is $20 I get $44m - so I paid $26m+ I incurred £7m in transport costs - So I made $11m
The best case is just daft. If oil some how bounces back heavily to $60, I make nearly $100m on just one tanker.
Cargo shipping has caved in due to Covid-19, apparently there is a mad scramble for oil tankers
Some people ain't daft
So I am now at the 18p target - I think with a bit of luck I could actually get 20p. So my options are
Option A - Sell and take a small but respectable profit
Option B - Stick in the hope of a 10 bagger+
Someone possibly Macolmy was talking about a 20 - 50 bagger. So at 13p baseline that is £2.60 and £6.50.
After all the Texas shenanigans I remember the V Blog a few years back with Jay insisting on £7+ a share.
Honest views requested - Is £1 a realistic near term target. This has risen 36% on a day when WTI and Brent have both fallen by around 7% and sub $20 barrel prices are threatening again.
I get the 76.5m contingent, but would £1+ rely on one of the other potential reservoirs moving from OIP to contingent reserve ie another 100m contingent proven.
Thoughts please