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I don't think people fully appreciate the implications of the China export restrictions and how much if an impact it will have on TGR. There will be very strong demand for the shares as one of only two listed graphite companies that are actually in production. It won't be easy (or cheap) to take a big position - it will be like when BAT was selling but in the opposite direction!

How did you calculate the cost overrun as the company are still saying Kouroussa was built on budget?

When looking at the figures you have to take into account the company is also developing an underground mine at Yanfolila. I'm not sure of the overall cost but I assume around $20 to $25million which may account for your cost overrun. I think the company said in an RNS earlier this year that it had ordered equipment/machinery for the underground mine for around 11million Euros plus there is a lot of digging and concrete involved in the development of an underground mine

Bonker can advise the company about when is the right time to hedge some ounces

The call set out exactly where the company is at in the development of Kouroussa. Betts said several times there are now no obstacles in the way of reaching steady state production by year end. The plant is performing at capacity without problem and the mining volumes are what is taking the time to ramp up. The low production so far is because they have to remove the overburden in the pit. Once they reach the high-grade ore body production will ramp up very quickly

The guidance now is 80-90k from Yanfolila + 10k from Kouroussa

The guidance is for Yanfolila production and doesn't include anything from Kouroussa

H1 production was 4,508t

People now know that you have to take what he says in an interview with a pinch of salt.

If you watch the previous interview again, he must have known about the ongoing problems but chose not to mention them and instead set people up to expect good progress in the quarter. Today's RNS revealed:

A fall in production from Q1 (when a rise was expected)

A significant reduction in guidance for H2 production

A lower head grade than expected. The last time head grades were mentioned, a while ago, they said the problem would be resolved. Today we are now told to expect lower grades to continue for the rest of the financial year and additional capex will be required to try and rectify it.

It will be hard to achieve a recovery in the share price until the H2 results and full year accounts have been released and that's dependant on whether they show the company is starting to deliver on its promises. There is also the worry about whether BAT will need to continue selling when it receives the next tranche if shares in December

I'm not at all surprised by the reaction considering the unexpected fall in production in Q2 and that the company has told the market that is cash constrained. This will put people off buying until the cash required has been raised

How did they end up producing less in Q2 than Q1 when production was meant to be ramping up rapidly?

You have to read between the lines in these operating updates and the performance and outlook is significantly worse than expected

Very poor compared to the guidance given by the CEO, particularly in interviews. The 3% head grade compared to the 4.5% expected is a big problem and full year production will be significantly lower than expected. The company is clearly cash constrained and burning cash so it is a big gamble whether debt can be raised on reasonable terms or whether an equity raise will be necessary.

I can't see this rise being sustained given the level of dilution shareholders are facing given the maximum conversion price is 0.275p and it could be far lower than that!

With Neil Herbert leaving I think the funding from the Lithium deal with Ricca is unlikely to materialise especially now lithium companies have a lower valuation. At least the company has managed to pivot towards limestone

It's a totally unreliable measure. The same pattern keeps repeating with the initial headline number very high, which is probably politically motivated (Biden will attempt to make a speech pumping it today), and then gets hugely revised down at a later date.

I haven't looked in for a while but I am a bit shocked that the cost of building the Tulu Kapi mine has balooned to $390million!

I remember the feasibility study in 2015 put the cost at $120million this then increased to $160million in 2017 although this allowed for an increase in capacity of the plant.

Are people really willing to invest such a large (& inflared) sum to build a mine in such a risky jurisdiction or are the directors merely stringing everyone along to keep the company afloat and thrm in a job?

Hummingbird just completed the building of a gold mine in Africa which will produce up to 140,000 oz per annum and it cost $115million. Admittedly Hummingbird was lucky in that it got a fixed price for building the mine a couple of years ago before inflation took off.

The results were only for rock chip samples so don't get carried away!

Look at ORR for example, at similar market cap, which has had similar results at over 130g/t and has already had success with the drill bit

The final accounts last year were distorted by the sale of Assynt. The underlying business makes a significant loss. If you analyse the more recent interim accounts released on 8 December 2022 it is evident that Falanx is likely to run out of cash by now

The cashflow statement shows the company burnt through £1,527,575 in the 6 months to 30 September 2022. That's an annual cash burn rate if over £3million. The last disclosed cash balance was £1.96million on 30 September 2022. It's been a year since that so the company will clearly be out of cash by now. This is obviously why the company is delaying the release of its accounts

People obviously worried about holding shares whilst suspended.

I doubt they will be in a hurry to release the accounts as they will likely show the company doesn't have enough cash to continue trading and service the debt and the accountants won't sign off on the audit. It's a big gamble on whether there is any real interest in buying the business and if so whether shareholders will see any of the proceeds after the creditors are paid off

Just making stuff up as you go along to try and pump up the share price

ECSC was around £6 million annual revenue and got bought out for £5.4million so nothing like 2 or 3 times revenue

Falanx has high cash burn so it would be lucky to get 1 x revenue especially as it is out of cash so in a weak bargaining position and has £2.5million debt at a 11% interest rate that it may be struggling to service