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I'm sure he said it's a shame the 5% will be done before the FS is out as it would further enhance the valuation. Well we know the FS is scheduled for Q4 this year so realistically it could conceivably be signed, sealed and delivered within the next few months. Then the financing will follow on in quick order and we are all set to go.
Couldn't be happier - SP can do whatever it wants in the short term.
GLA - Paddy
I've said on a few occasions that the window of opportunity for anybody shorting the share is getting smaller and smaller and as soon as any uncertainty about 5% or financing is out of the way then it will be slammed shut.
I'm reckon that they thought that by now a lot of people would have capitulated and gotten bored and went to rainbow chase somewhere else. The bad thing for them is the PI's have been buying more & more recognising the opportunity here.
If the decline ground is now in the tillite layer of rock then they should be able to motor ahead and hit the Byrnecut target rate of 154m or better per month then we are looking at getting to the orebody sometime in the next 10-14 months.
That leaves plenty of time to start getting the cross-drives and stopes into the orebody to haul to Telfer for bulk trials on the processing circuit so they can optimise it ready for the pouring of the "Havierons" by the end of next year or early 2024.
Realistically - we've held through the pure and utter dross over the last 18 months - the next 18 will be a doddle.
GLA - Paddy
There's nothing in the first 420m of cover. It's just permian sands and sediments that have built up over the millennia. The good rocks start at around 420m and it will be very, very, very good rocks.
Yes the usual results that we expect from the SE crescent and it seems they are continuing to improve the results from the Northern breccia where it sits next to the sulphide zone.
There are a lot of outstanding drillholes into the Eastern breccia too that could make for some interesting reading at the next update.
The big takeaway for me is that the decline rate has improved dramatically and the ground is now good enough for them to begin the first spiral which should get them into better ground even quicker - we should see a corresponding speed up of the rate as Byrnecut can take bigger cuts at a time.
That's another unknown behind us now as far as I'm concerned and once the 5% and financing is sorted then it's blue skies all the way to production. Lovely stuff Shaun....
ATB - Paddy
@zoros - you forgot to mention that Shaun has been dropping hints about the "base metal" opportunities that exist at Havieron.
There could be some good news about another commodity being found in economic quantities....
ATB - Paddy
They show their calculation method on the website - they use a DCF model using the broker estimates for the first five years and then assume the company will grow at a stable rate into perpetuity. The second assumption is a little too difficult for me to assign to a company at GGP's stage but having said that using their DCF model for the first ten years gives GGP a valuation of around the 48p mark - more than achievable IMO.
ATB - Paddy
Good interview released today by Willem - I'm sure GGP is one of his biggest positions and we won his discovery fund prize last year. He mentions about companies that will be moving into production within the next 24 months - tick.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ObZh12SyP0
ATB - Paddy
Shaun has mentioned in a couple of recent interviews that the current growth drilling is targeting the "Gap" zone between the SE Crescent & the Eastern Breccia.
You can see the area that he is referring to on the two images in this tweet - one from the MRE upgrade and the second from the latest drilling report.
https://twitter.com/paddygall1/status/1531989961678929925?s=20&t=yxyA6MdxI1Kp-PNx7S0HSg
He is trying to point out that if that area proves to be contiguous and the grades are constant then this whole area will be able to be brought into the mining plan for very, very little additional capex because of the proximity of the decline to this area. That's not even including the additional tonnes that will be added as the SE crescent is proven at greater depths too.
Havieron - the gift that keeps on giving - Paddy
Love this bullet point on page 6.
"Independently assess
Havieron resource and
work closely with Newcrest
to maximise alignment of
resource size"
In other words
Just in case you are in any doubt Sandeep - we will continue to assess Havieron independently but would like to "maximise" alignment of resource - so don't think we will be accepting any lowball estimates or offers.
Love it Shaun.
Joubert - this conversation has been had before and we're pretty sure it's some of the big ETF's like Van Eck that put their GGP shares up for loan. Seems counter intuitive to me as it hurts the SP and they bought the majority of their shares at over 20p but I guess they earn a fee on them so they are happy doing it.
Agreed @GoGreen - the company is absolutely in rude health and is on the very cusp of being "FULLY" funded to first production regardless of the outcome of the 5% negotiations.
There was a good post yesterday (slips my mind who it was from) that said no doubt Shaun would have gone to the banks with a range of requirements depending on the outcome of the negotiations. That would make complete sense to me and knowing that Shaun is not the kind of person to overlook any eventuality entirely plausible.
So Havieron is a done deal - we have clarity on the progress with regard to the Juri operations for 2022, it just remains to be seen what our plans for Scallywag and the other 100% tenements will be, It's curious to me that after the positive results from Scallywag earlier than we haven't made any concrete plans yet - I wonder if there might be some overlap with the negotiations in regard to Scally??
Anyway with the revelation yesterday in the email that things seem to be moving into the final phases of the negotiations then we hopefully shouldn't have too much longer to wait.
Enjoy the remainder of half term and the long weekend everyone - ATB Paddy
Agreed MFU - I can't see the sense in that rebalance either TBF.
I haven't got time to research the underlying index and how the rebalance was performed but the fact is they sold a big chunk insensitively last week which has pushed us down to where we are today. The good news is there seems to be a lot of appetite at these levels.
ATB - Paddy
Look here on morningstar - you can see they had 29m
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/ggp/ownership
Scroll down to distributions on here and you can see it's now at 4.27m
https://sprottetfs.com/overview/sgdj
It's an ETF @Jigglepuff - they blindly follow an index and rebalance regardless of the valuation or prospects of good / bad news. They are a price insensitive entity that will dump or buy shares so it's a double edged sword.
The good news is that they will be buying loads of GGP shares when we reverse direction at some point.
ATB - Paddy
If you have a spare 15-20 minutes this morning then have a read through this article about how the large institutional players can manipulate and influence share prices in stocks. GGP would have been largely free from this until it got into the position where it was understood what the prize at Havieron would eventually entail.
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
Looking at the action over the past 18 months and overlaying it onto a typical Wychoff chart shows some very compelling similarities IMO but please DYOR.
https://ibb.co/2Zywwyh
ATB - Paddy
I think it's been confirmed by a few people Strudel that there is no 12 month deadline for agreement of the 5%.
The 12 months only referred to the time limit that NCM had to inform GGP of their intention to take the 5% after delivering the PFS.
It's still in both NCM's & GGP's interest to get this sorted in the shorter term IMO - with the amount of news that NCM have lined up for the second half of 2022, it would make total sense to have the 75% wrapped up before they hit the market with their upgraded MRE in August, the DFS in Q4 (probably) followed closely by the decision to mine. There will probably be an outline of the possibility of converting the starter mine to a bulk mine included with the DFS so that 5% will grow & grow from an exploration upside the longer that it's left to sort IMO.
ATB - Paddy
Ignore the line that says GH still has shares - it hasn't updated for over a year for some reason and he personally told me that he is fully out of GGP. No reason other than he had other ventures where he felt his capital would be better used and if truth be known I don't think he liked the idea of someone else pulling the strings where he used to be top cat.
GLA - Paddy
Here you go Jiffy - these are the top 100 or so holders from the Bloomberg print on the 19/03/2022
There are almost 1billion shares held with Hargreaves Lansdowne alone. PI's are by and far the biggest holders of GGP.
https://ibb.co/pdZ2nBj
https://ibb.co/dK56WkG
https://ibb.co/B6p5JqM
https://ibb.co/Bydw7wg
GLA - Paddy