Member Info for Oxgodsby

Hi manu17
I'm not convinced that the BOD is "totally unreliable" now that Paul Smith has gone. But the business is probably univestable given its exposure to sub-prime borrowers and continuing regulation, as I have commented previously. As to the recent RSN. It tells us that the 2022 finals will be released within the (extended) legal 6 month time period.; it doesn't give any further information. I think we are entitled to infer that there has been no material change in trading performance including the volume of claims, otherwise MCL will be in breach of MAR. However, I do find some previous RSNs rather odd. The Feb 21st RSN stated that PBT " been impacted in recent days by a rapid increase in claim volumes". But the half-yearly claims report to the FOS showed a reduction in claims volumes from the previous 6 months. A subsequent RSN on March 3rd reported strong trading in spite of the increased claims volume. And on Dec 17th MCL released an RSN informing the market that its proposed restructuring was being abandoned "because it could not complete by a revised deadline of the end of the year." No clear rationale had been given for the proposed restructuring in the first place and the December deadline seemed arbitrary, unless the aim was to ring-fence Digital division from HCC claims already in the pipeline. Paul Smith's departure can be explained by the failed re-organisation and increased in claims compounded by his failure to inform the BOD of his intention to sell his shares. Now, we shareholders are exposed because the BOD has very little 'skin in the game' (Marshall has some 500,00 shares now worth the best part of b****r all) and Hay Wain has 36%, so I can see MCL going back to being private again.

robizm
Even if you're right MCL is probably finished as an investment for three reasons:
First, any increase in SP will allow holders to get out. Second, the business model is a hostage to regulation. And third, it falls foul of ESG investement because high cost credit is socially unattractive and its reputation is likely to decline further during recession. I hold and am likely to fall into the first category should there be any good news.

robizm
Even if you're right MCL is probably finished as an investment for three reasons:
First, any increase in SP will allow holders to get out. Second, the business model is a hostage to regulation. And third, it falls foul of ESG investement because high cost credit is socially unattractive and its reputation is likely to decline further during recession. I hold and am likely to fall into the first category should there be any good news.

Stockopedia again reporting "Full Year 2022 Morses Club PLC Earnings Release" expected today. We'll see.

Stockopedia - the subscription based stock screening service.

Stocko has taken down the note that results update is due today! Amati seems to be selling down holding in AIM IHT portfolio. All very curious - looks like someone knows something is up.

Stocko is showing there should be a full year earnings release TODAY! Will it be post close to 'bury bad news'?

At 2021 YE MCL carried £2m provision for FOS fees & reparations on 'lost' cases. The Feb RNS warned of a 20% - 30% fall versus consensus earnings of £7.5M i.e £2.25M. This implies that the volume of problematic loans had more than doubled in a few weeks. Trouble is, we don't have any case numbers to go on. Best case is that CMCs were putting through as many claims as possible before the new cap on fees. Worst case is that, if the number of claims dealt with by FOS has risen sharply, it undermines the business model - MCL has always maintained that its regulatory procedures are very robust! Remember MCL has to pay FOS £750 for every case it investigates, win or lose. Hey ho - not long to wait now. In the meantime a penny share.

I may be missing something here but aren't the numbers petrencf refers for the half year to August 2021 - so they don't really tell us anything about H2 claim volumes. MCL reported a significant increase in claim numbers in Feb 2022 . We know that profits were expected to be aprox £2.25M below consensus ie a 10% uplift to average IFRS9 impairments. What we don't know is whether the FOS fees are included.

In addition there's the matter of the CEO's share dealings and the abandonment of the proposed business restructuring. I'm guessing that the aim of the proposed restructuring was to insulate the Digital Division from the problems in HCC. And it look like it was overtaken by events. So for the present I think the market is telling us all we need to know - but fingers crossed because I topped up recently.