Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Morning CW, I hope you are well?
In the sharesoc webinar RM said we are going through a licensing process to create a global franchise for the annual business (broad spectrum use for anyone of any age who gets hospitalised for a respiratory disease). He said it was a “big name” partner running this process and if he said it we would all know it. I don’t think it’s numis or consilium, I took it to mean one of the big boys. Perhaps Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs... that is purely speculation. I wouldn’t be surprised if the share price moves on hearing who is conducting the process if it is one of the truly big names.
Here’s a few of the pharma specialists (it’s talking about mergers not licensing, but the big players are profiled)
https://www.idealsvdr.com/blog/22-advisory-firms-shaping-biotech-mergers/
Hi Tiger,
Yes in p2 some patients were on oxygen. You need to look at the lancet paper for a breakdown of severity of disease in patients, the paper is on the Reddit site.
From memory aroun 75% of patients were on oxygen (OSCI level 4) and 25% were OSCI 3 (moderate case). So in this trial the patients will be similar but slightly more severe disease. O2 results were great for these patients so I think level 4 is a good target for seeing improvement in symptoms, time to discharge and mortality.
Hope that helps?
Here’s the Reddit link...
https://www.reddit.com/r/synairgen/
Apologies I used the wrong link earlier, here is the testimony to the senate committee about SNG and Activ2 trial
https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Testimony-Jha-2020-11-19.pdf
Things are going downhill so fast in USA. Those 214k cases yesterday (3000 deaths) will lead to 4000 deaths per day in 22 days from now.
Here’s where I think the next SNG news comes from.
Dr Jha (Dean of public Health at brown uni) gave evidence to the senate committee that SNG are on the Activ2 trial. This is a government funded home trial where they monitor drugs for effectiveness and then grant EUA.
This is backed up by our Prof Holgate who said that the FDA has asked us to run a USA home trial.
My prediction is:
1) RNS about FDA interest and participation in Activ2 trial.
2) Short wait for data - Activ2 and Global phase 3 trial
3) Data reviewed FDA grants EUA and preorders as limited supply
What do you think?
Links for the above:
USA stats:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1337195908279267330
Senate evidence (page 3):
https://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Jha.pdf
Activ2 trial:
https://www.nih.gov/research-training/medical-research-initiatives/activ/covid-19-therapeutics-prioritized-testing-clinical-trials
Welsh- post if the day. Thank you for your realism.
We know this works, we know a trial is about to start, we also have some strong clues from Prof Holgate that there are some juicy surprises from the FDA (minimum being a USA home trial).
We need to stop lamenting the lack of updates and hold onto what we know. And if you can’t do that, just sell.
I would certainly say no to £5. Imagine if you had said that with your Amazon shares?
FDA support, Broad spectrum antiviral, global licensing, government stockpiling...
They will have to use violence to get my shares off me and even then I have a high tolerance for pain.
£5 a share? Read the well reasoned thread this morning about what it takes to get to £100 a share (spoiler alert- it’s doesn’t take much!)
Agree matml, well explained.
Also, we certainly don’t know RM failed at licensing after p2. He has said the opposite, he wants all the revenue for doing all the heavy lifting. All the revenue sounds good to me.
Josh, I agree. I missed it first time around. I think I was more surprised by the talk of going it alone and missed the licensing piece. He also said this:
“We want someone to take this on as a global franchise, the thing they will be most interested in is that annual business”
So looking for one big licence, where they could develop the broad spectrum piece, not just a distribution type licence. Huge possibilities here.
Interesting post Josh.
I would have said we are going it alone until takeover middle of next year. However this morning I was rewatching the sharesoc webinar and found a little gem we overlooked. We all heard going alone for covid revenue and there’s a process being run by a third party, but I had missed it is actually a licensing process, not takeover. Here is the quote from RM:
“This drug should be considered every year for every patient, every age, with all sorts of comorbidities, that ends up in hospital with a viral lung infection. We are running a LICENSING process, we are talking to large pharma companies and the terms for those 3 different revenue streams [covid treatment 21/22, stockpiling, annual viral lung infections] are quite different. We would demand more of the action from covid 19 business because we’ve done more of the heavy lifting”
Now it may be that he can’t say takeover, but I am not sure we have factored into our thinking that they may sell a global license for the drug for viral infections - with the necessary p3 trials for other uses that go with it, but keep the company not TO.
I think we get profit share of the cash cow, rather than sell the whole cow.
Oops forgot the Reddit link!
Anyone else considering investing or topping up, have a browse here...
https://www.reddit.com/r/synairgen/
Lurker you are welcome here. Synairgen is a great company with a great product. We have a reddit site hosting lots of information about the company, product and key videos from the CEO. Start your research here and we are all more than happy to answer questions here (or on the Reddit chat room) too. Good luck!
Thanks Phil, I know one awesome PI who sent cakes to the team at Synairgen to give them a boost and show appreciation. Actions like that have more chance of helping the team than berating and pestering them. They are the ones on the pitch, we are in the crowd watching. Least we can do is cheer them on and not stand in front of the goal asking when they are going to kick the ball.
FFS please will everyone stop phoning and emailing Synairgen!!! When they have news they will tell you and before that, they won’t. If you really feel the need to pester like a 6 year old, do it to Consilium who are paid to give you the standard answers.
Synairgen are busy launching a life saving drug LEAVE THEM ALONE.
And if you were so outraged by the lack of information, admit you have no patience and sell. For the rest of us, we will wait and make money when Synairgen have done their very important work.