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Sea boy- you asked a reasonable question and I don’t think you deserve the answers you got. I will try my best. I think the truth is that no one here knows where the share price will get to. There’s some short term pain as PI’s price this as a covid treatment in the face of a magical vaccine. Once we are past that with some sold p3 data (the science is top class), we should start some serious movement. The next step is probably long covid treatment with 10% of covid sufferers experiencing this.
It will be a covid treatment, but the stockpiling of a broad spectrum antiviral is the more important commercial market to me. Some big orders here from governments )any or all) and we will see a massive rise. The next phase is TO/JV with big pharma for them to take the drugs into the many other uses. At this stage it will be approved, in use and making lots of money, so the price could be a big one. I’m not foolish enough to put £ guesses on the share price for each of those stages and if you extrapolate to the world’s only broad spectrum antiviral “viral penicillin”, I’m not sure how you would even value that.
Short term it will be bumpy though and the magical vaccine is going to buffer the share price. I hope that helps?
Here’s a great article about vaccine testing. It is a few months old but shows that the writer was spot on with his concerns. Some good detail about the trial protocols too.
If you are over the age of 65, this vaccine is probably worth the risk to you, under that age it’s a tricky one.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/opinion/covid-vaccine-coronavirus.html
Not sure vaccine passports will work- the vaccine is not mandatory, the app where they are proposing to hold the certificate is not mandatory, so what will happen if you turn up at the pub and say you haven’t got the app? They have been closed for months, will they really turn away at least a third of the population? I don’t think so. It’s just a scare tactic to force people to take a vaccine with limited testing
Good morning,
There’s some interesting research from uni of Pitssburgh about virus mutations. This is terrible news for humanity and could affect future effectiveness of vaccines/mAb. It won’t affect SNG as it works on the immune system.
I will try and summarise the science and also paste some relevant quotes. The paper link is below
As the virus comes under pressure from vaccines/mab it mutates and effective mutations may make the vaccine and Mab less effective over time.
The ?69-70 variant has rapidly increased in abundance, from 0.01% of all viral sequences in July 2020 to ~2.5% in October 2020
COVID-19 typically resolves within weeks, before the full maturation of humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 (22–25). During pandemics neither the infected patient nor subsequently infected individuals impart an immunological pressure on the virus. However, during a long-term persistent infection, virus replicates in the presence of endogenous or supplemented (e.g. convalescent sera or therapeutic monoclonal) antibody mediated immunity. Viral evolution in such patients may foreshadow preferred avenues of adaption in immune experienced populations. In individuals, multiple variants with distinct deletions can arise over time, essentially existing as an intra-host quasispecies (18, 19). Comparisons between deletions arising independently in persistently infected individuals show striking recurrent and convergent evolution. At global scales, similar variants sporadically arise in different geographies and viral lineages. From these data, it is evident that SARS-CoV-2 is continuously exploring sequence and antigenic space in different genetic, environmental and geographical contexts. These processes have produced at least once a variant that accounts for 2.5% of the viruses sequenced and deposited in databases as of October 2020.
The most recent sequences in our dataset are strongly biased to the UK and we show many variants with deletions in RDRs 1, 2, and 3 circulated widely across England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. These deletions alter one antigenic site (16, 21, 26) and likely alter another. The UK is a site for at least one Phase III trial of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Given that deletion variants alter the antigenicity of SARS-CoV-2 S protein, potential mismatches between circulating and vaccine candidates may confound estimates of efficacy
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.19.389916v1.full#ref-18
Here’s why SNG is worth holding (or adding).
1) covid is not over. Look at the global stats. This is not going away anytime soon. We have a scientifically proven treatment that works. It will be approved shortly and 100k treatments A month will be fought over.
2) The vaccine will not be 90% effective in the real world. But let’s just assume it is. How long will rollout take? Will it get to every country in the world? Will it work for all groups of people? Even if it works to 90%, there’s still 10% of the global population needing treatment.
Now the really important stuff:
3) governments will not want this pandemic chaos to happen again, their short little attention span is very focused right now. Think of the stockpiling opportunity that SNG Offers as a broad spectrum antiviral against ANY future viral pandemic, and there are a few on the horizon. Monoclonal antibodies target one virus, SNG organises the immune response against any virus. Which would you buy for your “nuclear bunkers”?
4) worthy of its own point, SNG is a broad spectrum
Anti viral. If the COPD market doesn’t get you excited, think of it as the “viral penicillin”. Do you think anyone told Alexander Fleming that bacterial infections were solved? There is no broad spectrum anti viral currently. You are invested in a highly effective one.
Finally and very very important
5) long covid is affecting people of all ages all over the world. It’s debilitating for the individual, and healthcare systems. The numbers are growing rapidly. Scientific papers have suggested that interferon suppression is involved in long covid, leading the immune system to be hyper alert (google covid interferon and Rockefeller university if you haven’t heard about this). We are ideally placed to treat current and future cases of long covid. RM has added a review of patients in the p3 trial at 30,60,90 days. Genius. We could be the first drug proven to help long covid. Take a minute to think of the value of that.
That’s why we are holding here. These prices are ridiculous. The market thinks we treat only hospitalised covid patients and the numbers may decrease with a magical vaccine!
As WedMe used to say, this drug has more legs to stand on than a caterpillar.
I tho k this article is positive coverage in the readership we want to see. It says we are oversold at 40% drop, says IF covid goes away, mentions other uses and kindly slips on 11 times upside from the broker. Many people will spot those facts amongst the vaccine stuff and good publicity for investors who haven’t heard of us.
Let’s see if it helps to SP today/tomorrow
Patience, I would not write off stockpiling at all. Imagine you are governments not wanting this situation to happen again. You either buy expensive MAbs for every strain of virus and some you won’t have treatment for because you don’t yet know about it. It costs around £5-10k per treatment Or you buy a broad spectrum anti viral and you are covered whatever comes next. Not so unbelievable.