Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Tony...to be fair re funding...If I was right yesterday (and that's a MASSIVE IF) and this goes for another 4 to 8 weeks without funding - then - only THEN they will miss the boat as the SP might get catapulted upwards at any time.
But for now...we might get jitters up and down for the time being....as probably everyone and their dog is in standby mode.
Yeah - "raise anything" vs raise "raise required level" with a loss making company of size of CYAN is a make or break situation either way so doesn't make much difference. But fair point.
Re going concern - it IS a legal requirement if a company operates on a going concern basis which most AIM companies are. There are lots of examples of AIM companies with values of upwards of £500 million (100+m revenue / 25+m profit and lots of cash in the bank) to have those statements too.
ITT - I can't believe you actually quoted a "going concern" textbook statement which is a template for virtually any company on AIM - and has been for years and years, regardless of the revenue, profit etc.
It's a legal requirement to put this in ;)
As for the "significant risk" - from the annual report - that was before the recent $14m of orders from India and when the SP was 7 pence? Surely you agree that the risk for not being able to raise anything has reduced.....SIGNIFICANTLY? ;)
And still no RNS....the longer it goes without funding......the higher the chance that it might not be actually required? ;)
Interesting...
Hardly readable....below link to actual screenshots from the table
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1tAlwVpnkOsysLbfzzwHf0yoR3kmLnhmI
Just had a quick look at various KPIs in past periods vs current and was thinking whether funding will actually happen anytime soon, and will it really be with a dilution. Maybe the "market" arrived at similar conclusion hence the re-rate?.
Quick summary - with a caveat - as working with assumption that Finncap £8m revenue for the year is correct(!!!)
They need £6.37 revenue for the 2nd half to fullfill the forecast. If we take into account gross margin evolution over the last 2 years and assumet it will be in line for the year - they will be left with gross profit of 5.02 million at the end (cogs of 1.35 million).
If that was true it would have left them with £1.06 million cash (after taking 6 months of fixed costs (6*0.66m) and Cogs out of the equation.
That is NOT INCLUDING the cash that they had at end of half year (which was 2.75m).
Total cash at period end assuming forecast will be fulfilled at similar margin would be around 3.8m.
Also what I haven['t taken into account is potential tax credit receipts. You see there was £1.4m for whole FY17 but only 350k in first half. Not saying that 2018 will be similar but only small amount (250k) has been recognized in 1st half. If it follows hte same pattern...then it'll make an impact.
Usual caveats apply - revenue doesn't meant cash in the bank....I simply missed something...yada yada.
It's just a theory - but ...if there is no funding by beginning of November....then I'll start to stand by it ;)
Food for thought guys - now pick holes please.
...a thought about funding size until end of the year - and doing "fag packet calculations"
Estimated FY rev (m) £8m Remaining revenue (m) £6.37 Fixed costs = 660k per month
£M' Rev Gross Prof cogs tax_cred Margin % Cash at period end
2017_FY 1.17 0.47 0.67 1.4 43% 5.39
2017_H1 0.57 0.18 0.4 0.35 30% 3.04
2018_H1 1.63 1.3 0.34 0.25 79% 2.75
£M' Rev Gross Prof cogs tax_cred Margin % Cash at period end
2018_Projection 6.37 5.02 1.35 ??? 79% 1.06 NO FUNDING
Not sure if it will be readable....but explanation will follow in next post....
...are not interested in this stock ;) Let alone their reps coming to a BB chatting about it ;)
But yeah - interesting the number of 1-2 posters all of a sudden ;)
...fall a bit today - before "expected" funding RNS tomorrow......
...alternatively - the longer it goes without funding - the higher it might go - as it might indicate that other options are being explored / worked upon, and maybe some other revenue streams are opening?
Tony....
curious how did you arrive at that (40p) value based on the order book? - that's £52m valuation.
Genuine question as my understanding was that you can't CALCULATE a FAIR value of the loss making company with non executed potential - it's all 100% subjective.
Both ^.^
On goes along with the other really well ;)
Sted,
I'm not sure I understand - you are saying goodbye because it might be a turnaround so you won't have any more stick to shake at?
And if this rise turns to be a dud too, then you will return to moan even more?
I simply....do not get it ^.^
And I've been in this share for years and years too so know the feeling all too well ;)
No one is getting happy clappy - I certainly not as I'm still almost 15p from breaking even.
And you of all people shouldn't be telling anyone to get a grip CB - you haven't had one in the first place.
And yes - I agree with one thing - I'll get happy clappy when it gets to half a quid - been there too many times to get too excited too soon.
My my all those new voices singing in unison ;)
CB, ITT, WW, Sted are now completely outnumbered ;)
If anything....shouldn't funding be announced on Thursday? ;) Like most important CC things are? ;)
Very insteresting that it hasn't dropped yet - sustainability of this rise is quite unprecedented in Cyan's terms.
Well - it actually has a precedent - back in time when TNEB was announced....it took some weeks to get from 0.2 to 0.9p ;)))
We all know what happened next ;)
I do hope that you are 100% right.
It's been far too long for this.
Tony,
.."flying off the shelves"? - that's not too subtle even for you. We have had 3 or 4 orders since it's launch in June. Yes total is $18.9 million - but in perspective of the roll out it's hardly "flying off the shelves" - more like it's a good take off for a good product. In an (almost) absence of any other solution being taken by any utility....you could probably get away with such statement....but we're not yet flying off the shelves.
In terms of meters manufactured per year - my guess would be - 3 of them put together - couple of million?
CB.......You call 2cv comment a blatant ramp CB? You of all people?
...while at the same spitting rubbish along the lines of...."....view cemented since we lost the largest commercial rollout the world has witnessed so far....". How is that not based on a thin air....
I forgot - it's all a waste of time, but by that my view is cemented as well....you either are a f**** idiot (which I very much doubt to be honest).....or someone indeed keeping an constant watch for some other other reasons.
Being pleasantly surprised...a blatant ramp. Geez man....you are quickly running out of ammo on that one.
And still....there are people who actually still believe you can short this..... (^.^)....an £10-£15m market cap loss making business which you can't even buy / sell on leverage ;))
...to start of the week ;)
Will prevent SP fall to where it was ^.^
Hi Vas,
To be completely honest, I haven't bought a single share this time around (since I last mentioned I did).
Neither when it was 7p the other week, nor now after the order / presentation.
To be fair I did expect placing to happen anytime in next few months, so I was refraining from buying. Regardless of that, I have so much exposure to this, I wasn't even sure If I'm gonna buy AFTER placing, even if I was absolutely sure (can you ever be?) that was the last one. Too many things can and have gone wrong.
So no...nothing from me this time - it actually might be that new investors joined the fray.
I'm actually a bit gobsmacked looking at the (finally) sustained rise. Whether it's a beginning of something better than to-date....remains to be seen.
Jinxed it now, I'm sure.