The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Careful with this lot. The torture looks like ending at 10.8p mid price unless some miracle gets it above 26.75 soon. Near term, anything above 23p mid should prove capable of coming close to that level. In my opinion of course. No idea what they do as I only run numbers.
Made a few slight changes in that commentary once I read the data map. Nothing too drastic though...
This is the commentary I'm publishing pre-market for Tuesday on RRR. Essentially, the suggestion given is if the intraday movements were without a negative RNS, it was probably a fake. But the numbers alone say it's stuffed! Please keep this opinion close as our stuff is supposed to be confidential. It's a bloody scary movement though and I "get" your ANGM analogy. "The new chart below suggests this is utterly stuffed. We're calculating an ultimate bottom at 0.33p due to the price both failing to make any breakout motions and by the fact it was forced DOWN at the open on Thursday. What puzzles us slightly is there was no need for the drop as the share would have required to exceed 0.925 to become interesting. As a result, there's a risk we're viewing fakery and if it exceeds just 0.925 near term (BLUE) recovery could be quite swift with an initial 1.02 and secondary at 1.22p"
I'm obviously a bloke who tends to focus on dangers and this lot have a couple. 1. It's trading lower than at any point in its history since 2005 - never a good sign 2. Ultimate bottom is at 0.63 if 1.125 breaks However, 1. Jan 28th was important. The share was manipulated upward, above the long term downtrend from 2011. Generally this is done to stop a price heading to ultimate bottoms. 2. The spike on Feb 18th was stage managed, a perfect initial breakout movement confirming the price is under control. 3. Next time it exceeds 1.675, common sense suggests a gap closure movement will be probable giving an immediate target at 2.17p 4. That's when it gets interesting for the longer term as 4.05p calculates as the first long term target in the absence of negative news. We'd run a report on this for a client recently, so I guess folk are watching the share closely.
One of my subscribers (pedant) asked permission to post a report on BZM. I've zero problem with this but will ensure it does not happen often. (This share is not one we comment on but I do not want folk spamming forums. The spikeydt thing left a bad taste <grin> ) Alistair
Not looked at this for an age. Something weird happened with it on Wed. Promises to be interesting with any moves above 1.01p as 1.22 then 1.5 enter the frame.
Bottom potential at 21p. Need only exceed 37.5 to cancel the prospect thoughs. (Looked at it for a customer)
Duh moment. Last comment related to BKIR...
You might be interested in the commentary I'll be releasing Monday morning. It will read; "Target met. And exceeded slightly intraday. Goodness knows how the route toward 0.215p will pan out as a few more days data will be needed to map the potentials. Curiously, we notice the share has executed an effective double bottom over the last few years. Arithmetic associated with such suggests 0.22 is possible longer term. Currently, the share would require to slip sub 0.131 (RED on the chart below) to enter dangerous territory." Old hands here will know I work daft hours, hence the time of posting. Only another 107 shares to do write ups on <grin>
Just took a look at JLP. By going below 8.6, it triggered a logic permitting ultimate bottom at 5.875p. Needs a miracle RNS or some ramping urgently. Visually, the calculation looks wrong as the shares lowest price was in 2009 at 6.7p. Who knows.
BKIR is not daft for a near term move. It HAS closed above the blue line which is mentioned. We wrote on Wednesday "The two year chart below illustrates what seems to be a problem. Once the share actually CLOSES above the BLUE line, initial target remains at 0.16p with a longer term 0.215p appearing viable."
Hi there, Welcome to Prem. Doubt any of the folk here would be comfortable tipping anything. You're probably best scanning the Regular Chat forums, then posting a question here to ask opinions. Premium may not be full of chat but I tend to be impressed by the level of analysis. If you're asking about a gooseberry, you'll be warned promptly! My own perspective tends to be somewhat weird. I only go after 'safe' things from a particular logic. RRL features in regular chat but I would not be willing to touch it until it closes above 5.405p. Similarly, ACTA has a 'safe' point by closing above 12.5p. While both shares are currently trading below such a level, my logic makes them dangerous to go after as they are not cheap but instead, dangerous. Sounds silly missing a rise toward the breakout point but many shares are not breaking out !
Think it might be a relic from days gone by. My daily data download does not include it (I pull in data for 2691 items)
A few shares you are nattering about are ones we watch. Recent comments read... Careful with WSG "The danger now is that the share will begin to reverse all of the good work done this year. Initial drop target is at 30p (which came very close on Tuesday). Our secondary drop target should the price continue would take the price back to where it was at the end of last year, at 25.5p" CNR "CNR has now managed to trigger a drop toward 148.5p with a possible secondary at 138.5p. There is a small possibility we could see a stutter/bounce at 154.5p. The price would need to exceed 171.5p in order to confirm the bounce and cancel the drop targets. "
It's easier to keep track of the natter if you post against the correct epic code. Personally, I click share chat on the top row, then choose Premium. Keep getting the idea MOSB is doing something interesting <grin>
This was from our commentary published last Monday on EME "EME has managed to close in comfortable territory where a near term 7.62 is viable with secondary - longer term - of 8.75p. It's probably worth taking a glance at the big picture chart for this mob as it illustrates something important. On Dec 14th, the share (chart inset) briefly broke its 5 year trend and was slapped back into place. The second break of a trend usually provides some entertainment and movement above 7.62, while capable of reaching 8.75p has a theoretical breakout target of 10.75p. What interests us is the share was manipulated downward (gapped) following this breakout so a second chance with CLOSURE above BLUE on the chart is liable to produce a fascinating result as a longer term 12.25 becomes viable." Dunno if this link will 'take' http://www.trendsandtargets.com/img/eme090213.jpg
We'd a report on SUN regarding the closing price glass ceiling at 7.5p. When it breaks, probably worth ignoring breakout target 8.7p as acceleration toward 12.2 looks about right.
Bit of care with TIG as it's due a stutter anytime between 25 & 28p. However, once it closes above 28p it looks like hanging on for a longer term 39 is viable. A cracking acceleration curve on it and the price would need sub 20p for it all to go wrong.
Panic below 79.1p. First stop is around 69p but bottom at 44.5p. Current trend dates back 11 years and a break will be volatile. However, near term trend is to 87p which, if exceeded, allows for 93p. Will need +ve news to get higher as it runs into a gap down.
Hang about for a moment. Will check it. Running forex simulations at present.