The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
I think the drilling is just good practice from ARC. There's possibly multiple scenarios and types of deal which are possible all of which have their own complexities. The absolute worst thing for me would be to miss out a drill season waiting for AA to make a decision/get sign off for a deal. The risk reward for ARC on spending another million or so to start drilling and potentially post up some more good grades prior to deal completion, could be quite a lucrative decision by the BOD.
I was the one who said regarding the email. He said 2 weeks ago that they were planning an investor call within the next few weeks so would be expecting something fairly soon but given ongoing discussions there’s probably some slippage possible.
Honestly this share just needs some patience. When I do my yearly reviews one thing I also was notice is >100% of my gains come from less that 5% of days, the other 95% of the time it’s just about sitting tight and not doing anything stupid like talking yourself out of a highly asymmetrical risk reward position such as this.
Just a few notes on my email to NvS. Questions asked were about Casa (answered by todays RNS), drilling dates and a question regarding the details surrounding the license splits.
Response was short but positive and obviously commented on an upcoming investor call that they are planning within the next few weeks.
The biggest intrigue to me is the license splits and getting a response to that question stating they would be answering this in due course personally conveys to me positivity regarding that development. In my mind if the license split come about by a 3rd party outside of ARCM AA then they would be deathly quiet trying to resolve that issue, getting a response to the question so quickly suggests to me that the license split is proactive measure from Arc/Rothschild et al in preparing the company for corporate developments. However this is just my take reading between the lines.
With regards to Casa i see todays news as positive, less about any potential money we may or may not receive but just removing a cloud over the sentiment of the company. Personally i couldn't care less about Casa but having a dispute there would have no doubt muddied the waters in possible talks with AA. This has now been removed until a week after EA expires, read into that what you will.
In summary we are in a complex negotiation with a major which will take time and involve many moving parts but the crux is AA have done the DD and technical review and are happy, as long as nothing major comes from left field then in a few short months we should be in a very strong position.
I also don’t believe the drilling is for AA. They carried out their technical review and found it satisfactory to ‘commence with commercial negotiations’. In my mind that means they have seen all they need to see.
The timing of the licence splits are intriguing and have come about since appointing Rothschild who are operators of the highest caliber. I’m sure they are pulling all the strings here.
On another note I emailed NvS this week a few questions and he has responded saying that they will all be answered in an upcoming investor call in the next few weeks.
Watch this space is my feeling.
I think it doesn't help with peoples expectations being set that AA will come take us out for 50p. Was never going to happen.
However we are indeed on the 'slip road', the IC was mere 6 weeks ago which is nothing in this game, but we are at a busy juncture, scoping study, drilling, AA talks all to be started/concluded within the next quarter. Its a very busy time for the BOD and i know its easy to speculate after a few weeks of radio silence but lets sit back and let them do their job. By this summer i suspect the picture, and the SP, should be greatly improved.
Disagree, with some sentiments here regarding JV. A $20m for 10% stake would be Anglo American a tier 1 miner valuing Arc at $200m. The mcap would be at $200 within days IMO. Not only that it is a major miner rubber stamping the asset and Arcs thesis that there are multiple teir 1 in the licenses. Plus would remove all financing/development risks which are associated with small miners. See SOLG on their JV, company went up nearly 1000% in the following months and went multiples of even what the JV investment was made at.
First time posting on the board. Just wanted to add I'd be wary of expecting news prior to conference call. Whilst it is more than possible they did a call after the initial exclusivity deal with AA in July during the technical review. Im sure there will be some excellent snippets and clues from the call regardless.
Also some seem to think a JV would be negative for the SP. If AA decide something like £20m funding for a 10% stake, do not think for a second the SP is not going to react extremely positive to that news. Just look at SOLG after they got a similar investment for further drilling.
Bottom line is the probability of a JV or buyout is high but lets not get carried away with imminent timelines as they will only lead to disappointment and a sentiment drag on the SP. You only have to look at First Quantam buyout of Kiwara to see valuations we are looking at so its sit back and let it play out IMO.
Themis, CFO already gone mate few weeks back obviously for this reason. Been reported too late IMO but been dealt with. Seems negativity on this board overdone. Q3 revenue low due to inventories stored for transport and also ongoing drill programme. Facts are this wasn't great from the company however now been addressed, production of circa. 8.5k bopd remains on track which is verifiable by 3rd party on PetroPeru website. Company operationally continues to exceed expectations, can understand the negativity to a degree but the drop today is nothing more than a top up opportunity prior to drill results , capacity upgrade and reserve upgrade.
Well done to the IOG BOD for successfully defending a takeover offer.....by diluting existing shareholders 100% lol.
Sorry to all IOG holders but this is going single digits. RRE on the other hand have dodged a bullet IMO.
Under the takeover rules fincap and cantors as both parties respective advisors must disclose trading activity in either share. Cantors disclosure is that of normal market making activity (513k purchased vs 509k sold) Fincap’s purchase for ‘book flattening’ looks as though they were net short. I very much doubt this purchase was on behalf of either company. If they wereshort, looks a bit naughty.
Not sure they are UT, 513k purchased vs 509k sold. Looks like they are just disclosing their trading activity on the share