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https://angola24horas.com/economia/item/26326-sonangol-alienou-ja-24-ativos-e-espera-privatizar-este-ano-outros-sete
Article i believe Donmac is referring to. Sonangol confirming all going ahead subject to paperwork essentially.
'Serene' as in peaceful and as an alternative to the 'bored' and 'excited' in the previous two messages i believe.
Hi Tom,
I've seen a few comment regarding the name of the application not being in the name of the JV. In the initial RNS regarding the Anglo deal they said the following:
'Upon signing of the Joint Venture Documents ("Effective Date"), a Joint Venture vehicle will be formed with initial ownership interests by Anglo American and Arc of 70% and 30%, respectively ("Initial Ownership Interests")'
Therefore there is no JV company so to speak until the deal is signed and as such no way an application can be made via a JV company that doesn't exist yet.
Personally see the fact that application is being made by Anglo explo Zambia (also referenced in 3rd of Nov RNS as the partner company) as the biggest hint that the deal is all but nailed on.
Obviously never say never but its a bout as clear cut as it gets.
DYOR
Ollie
ODR, just need to look at volume decline over last few weeks. Absolutely nothing to do with leaked delay there is no volume to support such a theory. Its complete boredom selling if that, stock gets moved between ranges to find liquidity at the extremes. We are currently at one of these extremes.
You've just said you don't buy its people selling because they are inpatient whilst at the same time questioning timeframes and suggesting a sell case for the stock. I imagine there are many PI's like you having these thoughts, some may sell and some may continue to hold, all of them know absolutely nothing with regards to any inside info like the rest of us.
Check out below tweet from Karl on twitter (arc largest shareholder) looks like the injunction/court case finally been thrown out in Lusaka and MM and Brian Chisala been sued for mis-informaton. Should mark the end of MM's nonsense.
https://twitter.com/Trisseswe/status/1430089122216038441
I believe this has been discussed before however from the 13th Jan RNS it states that the 180 days was from the notice given on the 6th of Jan. Working that through it means that deadline would be 5th of July (Monday)
I'm aware that NvS said 14th in an IC but surely the official RNS is correct?
Woah come back from a game of golf and the boards gone crazy.
The talk that selling is from people in the know, believe me if anyone knew we wouldn’t have sub 10m volume days, you would know about. Furthermore, average selling in recent weeks in £ terms has been half that of what it was when we were trading 7p+. The market is **** at the minute and running to the end is shaking out people who trade price rather than actual fundamentals. You need a brass ring piece in this game otherwise you get slaughtered. If your so certain the deal won’t happen then sell and move on and I wish you well. There is literally no incentive to keep posting, unless…
Hi Ella,
Ive just gone through the cash position also like you and with regards to the Block listing on 23rd of Feb it appears that these have not been issued yet and as such no consideration has been received. The note below the table in the RNS reads:
'The New Ordinary Shares may be issued from time-to-time pursuant to the exercise of existing warrants. If and when issued, the New Ordinary Shares will rank pari passu in all respects with the existing ordinary shares of the Company.
The Company will make six-monthly announcements regarding the utilisation of the block admission.'
My working out on the cash position are very much inline with your first post however however I have deducted 10% of the gross proceeds from the placing to cover costs which gets me to a 9 month spend of £1.6m which I think is about right looking at previous cash burn. As with you happy to be corrected.
Anglo's copper exposure is 100% Chile and Peru and i would imagine that they would be desperately looking to diversify this with recent election results showing both countries leaning further to the left with much higher tax rates being discussed.
Very much doubt they will stop looking in Africa to focus on either of these countries.
The selling is really not a big deal that some people seem to think. In terms of value sold id say its probably below average of the last 6 months, its just volume overall is very low. Furthermore strong selling or buying is definitely not a precursor to any further weakness/strength in actual fact I've found it to be a bit of a contra indicator.
I was in Rockrose and there was huge selling around £5-£6 with institutions openly selling down positions. A month later they announced a deal which saw them relist at £18.
I'm more than happy to accept a contrary view however please provide some back up to substantiate your thoughts rather than just say ' someone's selling' 'investors jumping ship' as they're really just nonsense comments.
I get people frustrations but you have to ask yourself would these be the same if the sp was 50% higher and we had a few blue days in a row? Arguably not, we would all be patting ourselves on the back saying it’s a build up pre drilling and deal. So really the frustrations are really not down to the underlying company and are down to the Sp drifting lower and lower yet we are trying to rationalise this and play the blame game.
We would all like a deal done by now but let’s face it they gave themselves 6 months for a reason, AA used the entirety of the 6 months for the initial exclusivity for tech analysis and dd. So in actual fact they have form for running it to the wire and the most probably scenario therefore is they do indeed run it to the end.
The drilling started last year end of June. Nick said it was a few weeks away early May so yes we may be in the window right now but we are still dependent on weather and covid restrictions as a kicker, and are still potentially running ahead of last year.
The selling has been there for weeks but it’s not aggressive and would not be even noticeable if the volume was up at 10m a day which was the 3 month average a few weeks back.
It may make us all feel better to look at a red SP and aim our frustrations at this bulletin board, but in essence the bod hasn’t put a foot wrong in the last year imo except a missed timed placing.
I cannot stress enough that those making sell decisions at this point are doing so because of a red share price which in the long term is a recipe for disaster but on the flip side it takes the 90% of pi’s to make emotional low probability decisions for the 10% to prosper. The more the merrier I say.
Drilling update this week is my guess, the rest is up to the bod. Good evening all.
Yh your right Tom, when drilling starts & a JV with a major is announced worth multiples everyones going to go, 'na your alright ill stay away that chart looks a bit iffy' haha
You sold just above 6p which is your prerogative and good luck to you, however no need to keep popping with a little negative comment. Just shows you're a tad insecure about whether you made the right decision.
This is why boards are quite good are determining sentiment. Can see the emotions permeating through some peoples posts as we now enter the last 4 weeks.
You've done the research and assessed the risk reward, nothing is ever 100% certain in this game so you need to look at what is known in the public domain and place your bets.
Do you have the stones to trust yourself or do you puke your holding at the low of the range just before a very news rich period based on no info other than a low volume drifting share price? We all know what you did Tom so its down to the rest of us to live and die by our decisions. GLA
They have answered this in the investor call. Licence changes are part of a potential transaction and would therefore be confidential until deal concludes. I wouldn't expect to hear anything until outcome has been RNS'd.
I get we are getting close and its squeaky bum time but every time I listen to the last IC its very clear that this is a very competent BOD operating with top level players in AA and Rothschild. You either trust them or you don't.
Max you are correct we do need news but we are entering what should be a rich news period. Never nice watching the share price stagnate and drift but then again it only takes one 7am RNS to make up for 6 months of flatlining.
Personally expecting drilling commencement within next 48 hrs, Scoping study within next 2 weeks and AA news within next 4 weeks along with first drill results from Fwiji maybe. Reckon news will come like buses now.
As mentioned on twitter this morning, with Botswana deal and consideration being the issue of shares at 10day vwap prior to close then Arc would want SP to be as high as possible in the 10 days proceeding to minimize dilution. With the deal being put back to 23rd of June one could assume this was a tactical ploy by Arc who believe that a deal will be across the line a couple weeks before the 23rd. In other words this week, in order to allow SP to react accordingly.