Malcy17 Jun 2020 10:55
I recently took the opportunity to have a long chat with Tom Kelly, CEO of Empyrean Energy, I have written a bit recently on their Indonesian assets where the recent CPR was exceptionally good across the board. Whilst the 1C and 2C were dead in line with the Conrad expectations the 3C number at 817 Bcf were some 30% higher than the operator had expected. This leads to what might happen in the case of a potential liquidity event at Duyung, a lot would depend on Conrad but I suspect a big payday might tempt EME to cash in some chips and concentrate on China.
Talking of China, I still believe that there is transformational potential here and recent results from the seismic inversion project were ‘as good as they could have been’. Excellent quality carbonates were better than hoped for with porosity and permeability rates at 20-30% and with CNOOC sharing their data comparisons to the log data of a crucial well, LH-23-1-1d, located approximately 12 km southwest of the Jade prospect in a permit operated by them were made significantly easier.
Timing of this drilling has been made easier by the granting of a 12 month extension to drill the first well so EME have until 12 June 2022 should they need it. Tom Kelly was at pains to point out that this is primarily a COVID-19 issue, they have made it very clear to CNOOC that if it is possible to execute the well earlier it would indeed do so.
This gives a possible window of Feb/March-May 2021, subject to cyclone activity, or a back-up of November 2021-May 2022 in which to drill, as of yet it has not been announced which prospect comes first. I have been looking at 29/11 with Tom and the enormously impressive Gaz Bisht for what seems many years and my excitement level has if anything gone up as we approach drilling.
As for valuations, Empyrean probably has one of the biggest potential upsides in the sector, there may be some corporate activity in Indonesia where Conrad, Empyrean and even Coro may have a decision to make should a decent price for cash or carry be offered but in China the numbers are without doubt mind-boggling. At 5p and a market cap of £23m any success in China would dwarf those numbers, with my risked valuation of c.55p and on an unrisked case I would multiply that by 10, I mean there could be a billion barrels out there…