Cenkos research note16 Aug 2019 14:00
also out but you require access to see it, snippet below.
Valuation In lieu of the recent headwinds around the commodity prices we have reduced our long-term oil and gas price forecasts. The net result is a reduction in our RENAV from US$179.9m to US$177.7m, but we maintain our target price at 33p per share. Amongst the Company’s existing assets, we see the greatest near term value coming from the Duyung PSC, where we value the Mako prospect (pre-drilling programme) at US$13.6m or 2.5p per share. Following the result of the upcoming drilling programme, we would expect a significant shift in this valuation as the Company looks to further de-risk the potential resource base at Mako. As part of the drilling programme, the partners will target the Tambak prospect, containing 250Bcf of gross prospective resources (21.3Bcf net). We currently conservatively risk Tambak at US$3.3m or 0.6p per share, whilst unrisked this number increases to US$24.6m or 4.6p per share. Elsewhere, it’s hard not to miss Block 29/11’s potential, where we have very conservatively ascribed a risked valuation to the Jade and Topaz prospects of US$46.5m and US$90.7m (or 8.7p and 17.0p per share) respectively. Unrisked, this valuation increases to US$489m and US$954m (or 91p and 178p per share respectively and assuming CNOOC backs-in for a 51% interest),