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Was hinting at the same point earlier re moving more towards Sum of Parts valuations.

Two sets of approaches now. 170p the first. And a "good offer" and valuing THG Ingenuity alone at more than todays Market Cap.

Kelso "active" on SoP being much higher

Sparta the same

Bloomberg (detailed) SoP over 200p

Now Liberium now 220p

Let it catch up whilst in the meantime the Golden Share times itself out.

Let the penny drop and it catch up, whether that be today, tomorrow, next week, next month ...

Midst of the pandemic share pricing when oil got to $20 - $25 per barrel.

Only difference is today your barrel of Brent is sitting between $70 and $75 per barrel.

Munch munch.

Canary3,

There will be others before Apollo get to return.

Next up for me will be an attempt to take a stake in Nutrition by a FMCG Food or Drinks manufacturer.

"They were “amazed Apollo were even interested in THG”. Well, they were, and they did hours of research, resulting in them wanting to make a good offer."

Acknowledgement that it was a "good offer" made by Apollo.

Good to see him and THG calling out those commenting yet not fully informed.

"“All the stuff about Ingenuity was ramped up hyperbolic rhetoric… it was nonsense and ended in tears”. This analyst has never visited Ingenuity’s operations. I did offer to set this up some time ago, but they were too busy. For the record, Ingenuity is good enough to have (big) contracts with multi-nationals/massive enterprises such as Allbeauty, Matalan, Homebase etc. but, it’s “hyperbolic rhetoric”? It’s got a pipeline to die for and already transacts billions of GMV profitably. We look forward to demonstrating that this hasn’t “ended” and certainly not “in tears”. Apollo’s offer had it valued at hundreds of millions. But what do they know, they’re just one of the most successful PE houses on the planet."

And the indicative prices involved with those bids and surrounding information are telling all that the market makers have got the pricing of this share wrong.

~170p lowest of last years Bids. more but some not even making the public domain

~ Kelso in as Active Investors. Lengthy rationale given being Sum of Parts far above here.

~ Sparta likewise and having stated mid Apollo approach shareprice would need to be at least double to succeed

~ Apollo bidding for the whole of the Group.

~ Bloomberg. Sum of Parts valuation of over £2.00

~ Matt Mouldings linkedin post informing all that Apollos valuation for just THG Ingenuity alone was higher than the market cap / share price for the full group prior to their approach.

You even had virtually all the short positions close right down to under the publicly viewable >0.5% threshold.

65% seem to be LTH Instituional holders and sticky shares.

So why are we here?

Not many other players left in any share price equation.

Has to be to a large degree down to the market makers who control the direction of any share price, the share price itself and its spread.

Next capital event please and the instant jumps to fill that glaring valuation gap.

I think he got a D and an O mixed up

"and pushing BDO to get over the line."

Good post btw Hosai

MM has told us all that PE when they get involved try to draw things out so the initial soundings may have gone on a bit further before announcement but for a leak and the Takeover Panel forcing an announcement.

16 weeks and counting till the Golden Share expires points to there being other approaches in between.

Like I have said before, between the last bids, Fridays RNS and MM's linkedin post you have a comprehensive list emerging of what requirements are needed to succeed.

Next up for me - an approach for Nutrition.

And in the meantime we know that the present market cap and share price isn't even where Apollo was valuing THG Ingenuity on its own.

Just to keep things kind of up to date with chronology

Matt Mouldings linkedin post informing all that Apollo had valued THG Ingenuity alone at higher than the present THG share price and market cap for the full THG Group, including Nutrition and Beauty.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/matthew-moulding_nothanks-pe-onwards-activity-7062681230554591233-gaz_?trk=public_profile_share_view

Kelso's response to events.

"Kelso notes THG's announcement whereby it has terminated discussions with Apollo. We note the comment about previous views of the board being on 'public record' which we take to mean the previous rejection of 170p a share from a year ago.

Kelso is pleased to see that the current positive trading momentum has continued during 2023 with improved profitability and cash neutrality in the current year. We note the comments about cashflow positivity in 2024 and a 9% EBITDA target in the medium term, which would produce £200m EBITDA on c.£2.22bn of sales.

Kelso previously made a clear statement setting out what we would like to see THG do. This included a focus on cash generation, a move to the premium index of the LSE from the standard index, a share buyback which we would urge the company to enact rapidly, clear shareholder communication and a clear value realisation plan.

Kelso invested in THG because it believes in its strong underlying value. We believe more strongly in this view following this morning's announcements (RNS and LinkedIn) which clearly show the board of THG and Apollo also share this view. We also note the tailwinds from reduced whey prices and logistics costs and reiterate our previous comments about the sum of the parts valuation of the business being well above the current market value. We commend Matt Moulding on his open and honest LinkedIn post and look forward to being able to remain a shareholder of this exciting company."

There will be others imho

How long before we see them?

The two easiest ways to reduce the 35% "fast cash"

1. Share buybacks and

2. Keep Good and Positive communications going and then more become inclined to hold.

Let the dust settle and No 1 has to be on the agenda.

No 2 itself has been a continuing theme since the Active Investors showed up and also the VP Investor Relations.

From the end of Apollo's statement.

"Apollo, on behalf of its managed funds, also reserves the right to acquire shares of THG, subject to, and in accordance with, the Code and other applicable regulations."

I mean if you (Apollo) were valuing THG Ingenuity alone at more than the present market cap and share price why wouldn't you be looking to buy ....

HeresHopin

"I don't know exactly what the sp will do in the short term, over the coming days and weeks. I am pretty confident what the sp will do over a slightly longer time frame, and I certainly expect it to hit a new 2 yearly high later this year."

The market shouldn't need much reminding.

1 year ago 170p and several bidders turned down.

About 1 year to the day Apollo make a preliminary approach. Talks off but we know they valued THG Ingenuity alone at greater than the present market cap.

Kelso highlight the glaring gap between the present share price and the Sum of parts

Bloomberg have even done a most recent detailed Sum of Parts valuation which was well North of here.

You would think the market would get it by now.

Only a matter of time before either the share price starts to attract more and more investors and move closer to the Sum of parts valuations or the next Approach or proposals drops this way.

In the meantime I'm happy to wait for the next information piece after information piece whilst the Golden Share times itself out on the 16th September.

By the way, only 3 things wrong with what Matt Moulding did and said.

1. Not including the prices behind Apollo's first Bid and improved bid. In reality though based on a valuation for Ingenuity of say 65p or higher they must have been at least x3 the present share price.

2. Appreciation / Mention that it is some of the 65% of LTH's have been lending their shares out to help create the "fast cash" make money.

3. Fair and valid point made my many in that why the need to consult with all or most of the 65%, and not the other 35%. Should be all or none and thereby avoid any accusations.

Lol.

Reflect on 18 months of silence prior to his arrival.

Complete nonsense thread.

I find it always interesting sometimes rather than engaging in the debates to take a step back and just view things from outside the arena and asking why THG gets virtually 300 to 500 post per day, sometimes more, when the likes of Burberry is lucky if it gets one or two posts per day. Gets made a little harder to summarise it quickly when you don't have thread view.

Here's quite a few from the last 24 hours.

Being Vocal against Charles Allen

Being Vocal against Matt Moulding

Being Vocal against Greg Feehely now

Reference Charles Allen and the Chairpersons role. He, indeed they all operates at a "higher" level within the organisation and are not involved in the day to day runnings of things. They are however all ultimately responsible for RNS contents and of which his name was attached to the one on Friday.

Reference Matt Moulding. No disputing his "attack dog" mentality in defence of the company but in actual fact good enough to come out with a Linkedin post which further clarified matters and told us that Apollo in its improved Bid was valuing THG Ingenuity at greater than its market cap / share price before the Apollo Bid. So that puts THG Ingenuity's valuation somewhere higher than the 65p to 69p range. (Then add Nutrition and Beauty valuations on top) Great umbridge and pantomime taken at interpretations of the 35% "fast cash" available shares. It's undeniable that it is this element of the total shares that causes the disconnect with true value and which only comes to light each time there is an approach or a bid. But away from everyones need to personally opinionate, Kelso actually thank him for his honesty.

Focus now turning too Greg Feeehely and a thread saying he will effectively be gone in 2 months. Wtf !! Have we actually ran out material. It is this highly acclaimed PR Executive, along with Kelso arriving as activist investor that transformed the communications and information flow from virtually nothing in 18 months to an off the scale feast of information.

So who next !!

Perhaps better to keep the focus back onto the more pertinent bits all were told rather than the D in FUD postings. THG Ingenuity alone getting a first ever valuation higher than the present share price / market cap. Improving Q2 momentum and the now tailwinds of reduced whey prices and transportation.

With successive approaches now repeatedly drawing attention to Sum of Parts valuations far higher than the present we its only going to be a matter of time to the next capital event. My guess Nutrition.

The suns blinking out so for me time to get outside and enjoy it.

Apologies for my absence yesterday. Couple of days in London negototiating a rail strike and with some tickets to see Al Murray at the Royal Albert Hall last night. Always handy to not lose the perspective that we do all have lives to lead outside anonymous boards.

Take out the emotion from Matt Mouldings linkedin post and all the emotion of the interpretation thereafter, here and in the media.

Then you are left with the fact that Apollo valued THG Ingenuity at higher than the present share price and market cap for the full group. That is the first recognition of any value being attributed to Ingenuity at all. Then add value elements for THG Nutrition and THG Beauty on top. They also had gone away and come back with an improved offer - so had / have serious intent.

Based on that, the offer I think was pitched at a higher level than some think. Higher than 170p - 200p level for me. Stumbling block control of Beauty and Nutrition wished by PE. The 2 best bits at the moment and could have been sold off by Apollo if and when they decided.

Bit by bit everybody is getting more and more information towards identifying truer value for Parts and Sum of Parts. But over and above that the BoD / Moudling is also letting everyone know what constituents are rquired for any bid to succeed.

Apollo's proposal was probably the best of the proposals received to date,

Golden share continues to tick down so we wait for the next development. Share buybacks as urged by Kelso would be the next logical step to reduce some of that 35%. Thats not a dig incidentally at retail shareholders btw but rather the world of hedge funds, media and the circus that values it less than the truer value of the 65% held by longer term institutional shareholders.

"Like all previous bidders, Apollo were told their bid valuation and structure was unacceptable. Yesterday Apollo set out how they could raise their bid further, ahead of a deadline set by the Takeover Panel. Their latest view on Ingenuity had it as being significantly more valuable than the whole of THG the day before the bid leaked! "

Hang tough, we'll get to true Sum of Parts value one way or another.

Hopefully we get a leak on the price Apollo had offered which will show us how North of here Apollo were prepared to pay.

Like I said disappointing we didn't get to an intention to bid.

But its the start of many I suspect.

Most of the fall had already happened so it presents a buying opportunity on the dip imo.

The Q2 momentum is reassuring and it will be interesting to see if there are now share buybacks and or any Moulding top ups. Closed period as such should be over with the takeover deadline at 5p.m. on Monday.

Just got up and read the RNS. Looks like Apollo gave them an "opportunistic" price and proposal.

If so then in the interests of shareholders its right to decline if there wasn't further improvement or clarification of terms.

Thought we might have been able to squeeze out an "intention to bid" off Apollo and then work from there. Noted Apollo have still to make their statement.

The reassuring bits are that the price offered would have been North of where we are (my guess 125p to 140p) and it has resulted in large scale coverage and attention brought to the Sum of Parts being far in excess of where we are.

Will continue to hold and add and wait for the next to appear as the Golden share continues to tick down.

Be nice to know what number was offered.