Just to remind everyone26 Mar 2025 19:28
Thanks Dicko80 :
Mkt cap £8.65m
Current valuation
Cameroon
$15m / 42.5 x 100 x 57.5 net x fx 0.8 =
£16.2m
Namibia
$2.5m / 25 x 100 x (60%net) x Fx 0.8 =
£4.8m
Total £21m
Cash from farm outs
$4,375,000 x fx 0.8
£3.5m
Cash from placing
£1.188m + £0.275m
£1.463m with warrants £0.073
£1.536m less 5% equity bought for Namibia - £0.3m
£1.236m
Total
£21 + 1.236
£22.236m
Just for deal values no value for any oil within our licences
SA we hope will also be farmed out but we don’t know details of potential numbers , I think $15 - 20m for 50%
$5-7m for 3D
$10-13m back costs
I will go with $20m (7 + 13m)but not add any value for a major and what that may add to the sp
$7 / 50 x 100 x 25%
$3.5 fox 0.8
£2.8m
Plus cash
$13m x 50% x fx 0.8
£5.2
Total £8m
That would take us to
£22.2 + £8
£30.2m
Deal values
Then focus shifts to the drilling
35mmbbls x 57.5% x $3per bbl in the ground
$60.37m x Fx 0.8
£48m
Running total
£30.2 + £48
£78.2m
This based on just $3 per bbl , on a success case and once flowed , you could argue $6 per bbl is fair
We know discussions are ongoing with the banks to get into production and the company have or are taking on additional resource to deal with that so on bank financing $6per bbl into play
£116m
So around 12 bags from current levels in 6-12 months
Company believes thali is over $10 per bbl so we are applying at least a 40% discount if not more
And also nothing in for any oil which we know there is 111mmbbls low risk follow on in Cameroon, 600mmboe + in the deeper targets
Multi billion bbls in Namibia and SA
So we then hopefully get bank financing and drill 3 further wells
Plan is to have 4 wells into production
looking at 8,000bopd gross ph1
16,000 bopd gross ph2 when we can utilise the cost recovery pool to drill the deeper potential reservoirs
Further beyond that drilling in SA - basin fan play and deep water slope , very large structures could be over 1 billion bbls recoverable and Namibia we could have that 5 - 10 times
Longer term view to see Namibia and SA could really pay dividends with spangle broker note had a target of c22p overall from memory, so worth holding on to a few to see it play out
Have to remember the journey hasn’t started yet
Please DYOR and calcs