Member Info for Olmsey

Hi Homer. If people want refunds they will be paid from separate cash deposits and this will not affect the group's cash position

Thank BB for this and all your other great posts. I'm a 2 year holder (not LTH but have suffered pain) and believe in this business and it's future - and that it is grossly undervalued. I agree with your analysis of this group but fear the short term share price is driven by sentiment not logical analysis. The only way that I see that share price rising tomorrow (other than a bounce from today's fall - as at 08.34) is if they exceed brokers estimates (profit and cash) - or say the right things. To that extent does anyone have access to what the market is expecting tomorrow?

By the way BB I agree with you that the net debt figure is going to be really interesting - as to me it should be net 0 change as insurance offsets travel burn. If that is not the case and the net net monthly burn is still £6m-£8m then we have a real problem. I have felt for a while that the Board have been vague on this issue.

Well what was that spike all about? Probably flushed out a few shorters. Will hopefully continue the upward trend now

Thanks Rox. I would add that the maximum market capitalisation of this business was around September 2016 at £3.1bn. There have been changes to the business since that date but it is clear to me that there is potential for this to multibag - and by that I mean seriously increase - if the world ever gets back to normal again. DYOR as always.

Thanks FJG. Good work and thank you for your posts on this and the other "infested" board.

One quick question from me regarding the inaugural - Are they planning to sell every cabin on the ship or have they reduced the number of cabins for covid related measures. I'm trying to work out whether the 63.1% can only ever get to, say, 80% - or in other words is 800 cabins a full ship in "normal" circumstances. Cheers OL

He bought the shares from Saga so Saga must be defined as a vendor????

Important milestone. Hopefully this will bring it onto the radar of some funds (which might trigger buying). Still some way to go before key next buying trigger (for funds) of FTSE 250 which is about £600m (although there are a few less than that in the index). Could be interesting if we get to £4.50 a share

Looks like the drip drip from Setanta will continue for a while. The share price is holding up very well in the circumstances. Does anyone know anything about the holding?

Rox. Following your excellent calculations work this morning it made me start thinking about RDH and what he would have to pay per share to make a bit IF he went over the 30%. I think we all agree (sorry if i'm wrong) that if he bids within 12 months then he can only do so at his max price paid (due to stock exchange rules) which was 27p in old money. So actually the price isn't far from that number 0.27 x 8.12 (from your numbers) = £2.19.

Welcome anyone's thoughts on this as it is a vast difference from the often quoted £4.05 per share.

Well said Rox. Another way to look at the offer from the PE firms - From memory it was £270m (forget the old money share price). If they came in and offered exactly the same £270m (and shares in issue are now approx. 140m) it would equate to a current price of £1.92 a share. Even if they offered £270m + the new cash of £140m = £410m = £2.92 a share. Please be careful with your "simple" £4.95. Back of a fag packet works for me too.

Thanks Rox for a very useful bit of work. Everyone will have their own variations so please don't take some of the comments to heart! I always find using the Market Cap as the easiest way of getting my head around this placing and consolidation. The market is aware that there was £140 raised so using the logic in some of the responses to your post and using current M/Cap (11.25am 26/10) of approx. £210m, the value of the old business would be 210m-140m = £70m. And this compares rather poorly with the £270m offered (albeit highly conditional etc etc)

Hi Pers - It's defo showing on mine. Just need to do a new search (on the right hand side)

RNS now says Tuesday 13th with no reason for delay

It's now not possible to buy this stock through my HSBC Invest Direct account. They have put a block on until after the consolidation (hopefully lifted on Monday). HSBC said they could only sell. Maybe it's the same with other retail brokers and this could be a reason for the weakness in the share price. DYOR. Good luck all.

Agree with you Bat. As stated on the other board by me "When is a 33p offer not a 33p offer? The offer was heavily conditional. I know we are all tempted to be cynical (about the BoD looking after their jobs) but what if the offer was "we'll pay 33p to take this over if the Bank's write off half their debt". I suspect that we will never find out the true reasons but please look beyond the BoD protecting their jobs."

Hi Fevertreeman. What was your source for this article and when? Or was it your own work :-)

Thanks Pianista. That means they have cancelled it not suspended. Weasley words used IMHO

SW1000. Not sure you got my point. Suspend means we MAY pay it at a later date (i.e. Might pay it later or cancel later and use it in the business), Cancel means not pay at all

Divi - Interesting that they have used the word "suspended" rather than "cancelled". Or am I reading too much into it?

jl5006 - see my more recent post. That is the FCA website. Some might say they are not much of an authority though :-)