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WeWa: You are right that within 30 days it would be difficult to organize such a vote. But: A big company like Origin does not decide impulsively within 30 days or some weeks to sell a complete asset as the Beetaloo. Such a decision is approved by their board. I assume that Origin prepared the playbook for selling the Beetaloo already since a year perhaps if not longer. Just the passive FOG management in Ireland, without secondees within the operating project team in Australia, overslept the new strategy of Org completly. POQ even did not get any information from his own share holder Sheffield (!!!) that they are preparing to buy the 77.5% together with TBN. POQ was completly left in the dark, and was in the same position as a mushroom FOG shareholder (leave in the dark and feed with horse shi$).
If POQ would have been a sharp CEO he would have known this new developments since ages and he could have informed all share holders in time. Which could have ended up in a vote. (But I understand as well that Mr Sheffield is not interested in such a development )
I would welcome the posssibilty to vote if FOG`s near or midterm sale is off the table or not, and if FOG goes for the 100% Beetaloo asset share or not.
I can live with the situation that Sheffield is the new dominating Master in the whole Beetaloo. At least we see less poor management from POQ in the future because the important decisions will be done by Sheffield. (Perhaps thats good for POQ as well and his dream job anyway: he has to wake up in his FOG-shell in Ireland only when Sheffield gives him a call about a new development in the Bettaloo)
Thank you for advising me.
But I got a much better idea.
According to lse.co.uk, not even one trade was executed.
Here we got some guys , who use adjectives like brilliant, best etc for the current deal and if you are convinced as you say, Y'all should buy more shares that I can sell LOL
sugar coating a deal for selling the ROFR for one of the world wide largest prospective resources in Australia at a too low price does not help neither.
The only hole I can see is the cratered share price of FOG that lost 75% since drilling is allowed in the NT again in 2017 and although the natural gas prices, LNG prices show all time highs in Australia and Europe today.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ca%3Afog&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=13
Unfortunately POQ has taken the low risk low reward option. He had the chance to bring back FOG into the E&P headlines with a better deal in October 2022 as he has done in the times when he played hard ball with Hess.
But this time he dropped the ball.
interesting for me to read the text from some people here some weeks ago that they think that FOG should overtake the 77.5% and today the same people think that it is a good deal to give the ROFL away for cheap 6.75 million austral $. or as I say to give up the fight for 140 tcf gas = high reward option. Already some weeks ago I did not really dare POQ to beat Sheffield during negotiations. But today I am displeased that this 6.75 million austral $ deal is way too cheap for the FOG share holders.
And a standard sole risk clause in E&P contracts is standard, nothing to get excited. Sad that this is used as an argument to sell this cheap deal.
Anyway you can expect this will become a boring forum and we will see a depressed share price as long as we will not get any real good well test production data. But POQ prepared us already today that we will have to wait till 2023/24.
By the way newto
I always appreciated your writing here and there are many points I agree.
But today you write just a claqueur because the voting machine from mister market shows a low share price for FOG which does not overlap the saying of a brilliant deal or POQ.
"I think this is the best outcome we could possibly have expected in such a short time frame, and in the longer run -- maybe the best deal that POQ has ever done. "
Newto, for my this sounds like a cynical joke.
It was POQ´s management not to get better results or offers.
Frack me: it is even worse than
"What they got for not exercising their ROFR.
Was $30m carry that gets them through the next 4 wells (which should boost the share price) allowing them to save possibly tens of millions when raising further cash."
Fog sold the 77.5% for just 6.75 million australian $
If FOG would have managed to have a contigency buyer in the bottom drawer, this new partner could have bought the share of ORG plus a more substantial offer for a free carry for FOG
ITguy, thanks for the link
my conclusions:
- Now it is obvious Mr Sheffield, the new puppetmaster and Mastermind in the Beetaloo has Mr POQ by the short and curlies (at the drilling rig the rough necks would say castration). Question: do we need Mr POQ as CEO, who is famous for his negotiaton skills when there is nothing else to be negotiated anymore in the Beetaloo. We need now a cheaper CEO who just says " yes Sir", when Mr Sheffield dicdates the next steps.
- I think that Mr Sheffield got a good Master plan for the Beetaloo. But we could have had a better plan and result for FOG
- I am not happy that they are not going to sell FOG as we were told for more than one decade. Now POQ tells us that the monetizing by selling FOG after proving a commercial production rate is off the table. I think it is Mr Sheffield`s strategy to earn mony with gas production from FOG. With this new strategy it can take perhaps another 10 or so years till FOG earns real money. As I understand POQ does not expect a substantial cash flow from commercial wells before 2024. When you have wells with commercial test rates in 2024 , FOG will need many hundreds of millions $ even for the 22.5% share to finance development. And I am tired to wait. But it will work out nicely till Mr POQ is in the age to retire (was this the sweetener Mr Sheffield offered cheap Mr POQ for not being a trouble make for the too cheap selling of the ROFR too cheaply?)
- This video is full of gosh selling bullshi$. The clause for sole risk and come back into participation of a well or not is an absolute standard clause in joint venture contracts in the oil patch. And gosh Mr POQ has the guts in explaining us that FOG has achieved something fantastic, full of advantages for FOG. Gosh what a bullshi$. FOG does not have a team of geologists, geophysicists, seismic specialists, drilling, production, reservoir, facilities engineers to assess the risk if it is a good idea to participate drilling or not to particpate before a well is drilled.
[[[I admit it would be an interesting and gosh a funny concept if FOG would join the free carry of perhaps 4 more wells till end of 2023 or so and than leave the sole risk to Sheffield and TBN. And than if the additional wells are successfull FOG could be sold with the option to join all the successfull wells - gosh, I have never seen someting like that but I can bullshi$ as well LOL]]]
Not happy with the results and just for Mr Beetaloo from Germany, I will not follow your unique and smart advice (which is competely new for me) to sell FOG and buy some pension fund because ... (I won`t tell you here)
It is super cheap to sell 77.5% of the Beetaloo for just 4.2 million US$ respectively
It is super cheap to sell the ROFR for just 4.2 million US$ (that means for not to spook Mr Shefffield and Mr Riddle with the option that POQ becomes a trouble maker for them and the 77.5% Beetaloo deal)
POQ did not go for the HIGH reward options.
Not for the 100% szenario
Not to get a substantial amount of money for more free carry for the next well (for not being a drouble maker for Sheffield and TBN because he sold the ROFR for a low price)
In all cases
high reward options (as discribed)
and low reward situation (as the situation looks like now for us FOG share holders (but POQ will keep his high paid easy job = it was a good bargain for him IMHO))
we will lose everything in the Beetaloo when we can not achive a commercial test production.
Frackme: "Like I said I've done a lot of deals in my time (not in the oil and gas space) and the golden rule is to take each LOI seriously if you can't sequence them to land together."
Frackme, I know only oil&gas. What you see there: you always go for or have to take risk / high risk and always should go for HIGH reward.
And because of the risk, high risk to lose high amount of money, major oil companies dominate the E&P. If you are a small player and you go for risk and low award you will always be a small player or even go bankrupt. And for the low award you will lose the money for drilling as well when you have bad luck and drill a duster only . In both cases i.e. low reward and high reward, you always will lose the money for exploration and drilling when you drill a duster. This is for the classical exploration, drilling situation.
Some oil companies think they can outsmart such a situation. They say we invest only when there is 100% oil, gas. Such a strategy is possible, but when there is commercial oil, gas the price is higher (and thats the reason FOG is waiting for a commercial production test to get a higher price). Very seldom these risk averse oil companies have the guts to invest when the oil price is at minus 37 $/bbl. And thats the reason this outsmarting strategy does not work very often.
I did not join the conference this morning
But I am dissapointed.
Obviously POQ did not have a prepared contigency plan, buyer for the beetaloo. Therefore he was not able to present a partner within 30 days to go for the big price the 100%. With this deal TBN will have taken the 77,5% of the Beetaloo for a song. Congratulation to Mr Riddle. Congratulation to Mr Sheffield who is going to implement his own concept for the Beetaloo. Shame on FOG and POQ who were not prepared and surprised.
Obviously POQ did not present himself as trouble maker for TBN and Mr Sheffield. Because outherwhise FOG would have got a bigger amount of free carry for the next wells. Shame on POQ for not getting more money for FOG`s ROFR.
In my opinion a super outcome for Mr Sheffield only, not for FOG,respectively POQ. I think Mr Sheffield is the shark and Mr POQ with FOG is a toothless passive pilot fish only.
I wonder that it is not the case that we as share holder are not asked to vote for the passive or for the go big option???
Obviously Mr Sheffield did not even need to invite Mr POQ for a breakfast, because POQ was not able to prepare a bargain situation within the 30 days, that would have ended in a better deal for us FOG share holders. POQ even did not want to take the risk to go for the 100% Beetaloo option with the high price, the high risk but the real very very high reward worldclass 140 TCF scenario. Such a deal would have impressed me and in this case FOG and POQ would have been in the world wide headlines.
For me there was a big chance at the beginning already that Mr Sheffield will be the winner as we see now but I am dissapointed that POQ was not able to get more money for a bigger free carry in the Beetaloo - not the result I would have expected from such a sharp negotiator and CEO in Ireland, as he is discribed here on the forum.
The only good point: we do not have ORG as operator anymore. Instead we have Mr Sheffield who hopefully will bring the best technical know how and more texas style operations to the Beetaloo. Org had the advantage that they were good in stake holder management (politician, indigenous, farmers , Lock the Gate, etc) in the Beetaloo. I hope the Australians working for Mr Sheffield in Australia at TBN do not make too many mistakes with this topic.
At the end of the day in my opinion the situation of FOG in the Beetaloo did not become worse or substantial better (because we are not carried for another substantial amount of money, nor did POQ go for the real big price, the 100% Beetaloo).
I would say that FOG will not put more effort into the Beetaloo when TBN is the operator, compared to the effort when ORG was the operator. In the new situation we even have the guarantee that Mr Sheffield will kick the TBN employees and we can be sure he does not want to lose his money with his FOG share neither.
I hope that Mr Sheffield can see the big picture for South Africa as well and keeps kicking Mr POQ to become active in South Africa finaly.
HardRockFracer
I am not any more a specialist for oil based muds. But I know that the mud companies offer since many decades oil based muds that is called synthetic i.e methan molecules are used to design the molecules for such a synthetic oil based mud. And in such a case you could get an oil based mud without BTX.
Some years ago I was at a conference where the Qataris together with Shell fueled an Audi with synthetic diesel made from methan molecules only.
Of course the mud bill will be lower with a water based mud and I know only one well where napalm was used for hydraulic fracturing. But I have seen wells using a better performing oil based mud reducing the whole well costs as well.
copied from HC TBN forum, as TBN shareholders see the situation:
It's difficult to foresee FO:
1. Being prepared to operate
2. Being prepared to agree to a gas supply agreement given 1
3. Having done nothing to push the asset forward, and suddenly being simultaneously capable and taking action.
4. Being totally unaware this was coming.
5. Tamboran announcing this deal if a threat of Origin executing ROFR was real
6. Tamboran not structuring the deal in a fashion that makes it virtually impossible for FO to exercise ROFR
yes the Beetaloo resource is massive
with 3 TCF you can feed one LNG train easily and here we dream from more than 100TCF
Will know soon if FOG gets 100% again or follows the strategy with less ambitions