The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
By the way, I know another well, that got a monster potential which is in the drilling phase now and should be tested soon, if successfull. It's a conventional reservoir target and if successful I a expect a hughe flare.
Will be exciting days in 2022 when the horizontal wells will be drilled by Org (hopefully successful, hopefully by applying the lessons learned, hopefully by not repeating the same mistakes I.e. casing diameter restriction etc), During testing we will spot the infrared satellite images from the well site again.
Perhaps Fog could install some web cams on the well site as well?
And by the way, I still think that POQ should do his homework in South Africa, where the political and economical boundary conditions are changing.
https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Opportunities-for-Gas-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa-Insight-44.pdf
I didn't watch the activities of Fog's neighbors closely as you. But do you get the satellite signatures as well with Effis using CO2, Methan, black carbon using VIIRS?
https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis_current_situation/index.html
https://www.farmoutangel.com/assets/south-africa-south-western-karoo/
Exploration - appraisal - development and production:
As long as commercial production rates cannot be demonstrated, we will not see the share price for the billion dollar price/value of Fog.
A buying oil company will ask: where is the sweet spot of the Beetaloo
And secondly: which completion, how many meters for the horizontal section with how many fracs, which spacing etc do we need to get the best production
At the sweet spot you earn the most of the money because there you get the highest gas production and the highest hydrocarbon condensate production. Sadly we cannot answer this questions and we are far away from having presented such a sweet spot with a commercial production rate.
Amungee fu#k up:
6 from 11 plugs not milled out and not removed at the Amungee NW 1H is grossly negligent.
If the operator would have cleaned out the whole horizontal section, there would be a good chance that a commercial production rate would have been demonstrated already and Fog would be in a much better situation ( no oil company would put money on the table for a hypothetical normalized production rate)
Perhaps somebody like Poods could mention this at the AGM? And what actions POQ has started to tell the operator that this is not okay at all.
As I said: a new completed and fractured well and 6 plugs are still in place. This is grossly negligent against Fog and even Org share holders.
What's the plan from Org to improve this situation at Amungee NW 1H ASAP? What's the plan from POQ to motivate the operator?
Strange Kyalla 117 operations:
Oh, sorry we have a restriction in the horizontal section of Kyalla 117 and have to wait some months till the rain season is over. And after some time: uuhmm, no there is no restriction there. Hmm, so why Fog and Org cannot communicate clearly what is going on there. Are they still not able to run a tool in hole to total depth as I would expect as quality control with a caliber? Or do we have a fu#k up there because the water saturation is too high or because a natural fracture full of reservoir water has been hit? Or do we just have to lift the spent frac fluid out of the hole? So, what are the plans for Kyalla 117 for the next steps or do they still not understand their problems downhole? Do we have a problem that can be solved, like installing a pump for the spent frack fluid? Or do we have a complete fu#k up at the Kyalla 117 because we drilled into a formation full of reservoir water (and not enough gas and condensate)?
LOL, gave you a thumb up. And POQs English should be much better than mine.
Today I saw an article about the Vaca Muerta. I watch the Vaca Muerta as long as the Beetaloo. My bet was and is the Beetaloo because I thought it is a big advantage to have a shale gas basin in a western country, compared to the dead cow reservoir in bankrupt Argentina. But now this dead cow produces about 175 000 bbl/d and the Beetaloo zero.
Thank you for the podcast link.
Since many years I was thinking that Fog got the sweet spot, the filet mignon of the Beetaloo Basin.
But when I watch Empire and Tamboran I get new thoughts and questions like:
- is Tamboran the lucky guy who got the filet mignon and not Fog
- do we have the rumpsteak part only
- does our operator in Australia know how to prepare a steak or will the operator fail to deliver a perfect steak (even if it is just a rump steak)
- what do you think: could it be a better idea to sell at least some Fog shares and buy Empire and Tamboran
instead of holding Fog?
Tnbird,
Before I repeat my old comment. Be careful with the oilfield units. 5 MM cft means 5 million cft.
IMHO the 5 MM cft per day calculation is not trustworthy!
First, physics is wrong.: You cannot say if we get 1 MM cft /d from 200 m, than we should get 5 MM cft/d from 1000 m in a horizontal well because friction loss, pressure drop etc. work against this simplification.
Second, geology is always full of heterogenity , that means if you have a certain geology, mineralogy, stratigraphy etc at 200 m, the other 800 m will never ever have the same geology, mineralogy, stratigraphy etc as the 200 m. And that means the reservoir parameters which deliver the production rate will be different for the 800 m. So second, the geology works against this simplification as well.
If you have 2 producing horizontal wells and you want to compare them, then it is possible to say well A got xx cft/d/m and the other well B got yy cft/d/m (here I mixed up oil field and SI units and m means meter). But you should not present calculations as Fog and Org.
I do not know if Fog does not know that, or if they know it and sold it to investors whose field of expertise is not reservoir engineering. And it becomes worse when a company as Org echoes this 5 MM cft/ d bull$hit.
"shows. One of the wells, drilled in 1968, had an unstimulated flow rate of 1.84 million cubic feet of gas per day from fractures. 'The acquisition of the permit gives Falcon access to another potential unconventional energy basin and an additional option for Falcon's exploration portfolio,' stated Marc A. Bruner, CEO and President"
Unstimulated, vertical well in SA, and now compare to the vertical 0.364 million cub feet per day well in the Beetaloo from recently.