Member Info for OldRascal

Polyminer2

Maybe I am wrong. I have been wrong many times in the past.

My reasoning is that an operational WS would produce 13mtpa compared to Boulby’s 1mtpa. It would be produced in the most economic manner using a modern, state of-the-art facility.

What are your reasons for disagreement?

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Even more special for those who’ve only held for a week. (Sadly not me).

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Crossrail achieved an average rate of 38m per day through somewhat more challenging strata.

http://www.crossrail.co.uk/construction/tunnelling/meet-our-giant-tunnelling-machines/

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It’s usually not to a good idea to bet against the shorters. They know more than us and are better qualified on all things market-wise.

But I share your wishful thinking.

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Gina may hold millions of shares. Just not 4%.

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As the tunnelling rate increases (50m per day more than possible) they’ll need a lot of segments. We cannot risk the TBM outperforming the segment factory.

The bolted TBM is only setting off from the Woodsmith end. Do we know how the spoil from Drive 3 will end up at Teesport or is most of it being used as screening around the WS site?

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ICL are looking after their business. Nothing wrong in that.

For farmers to be converted to Poly4 (or ICL’s equivalent), there needs to be sufficient supply. Farmers won’t be convinced to switch to a whole new system if there is no guarantee of future supply. Welcome Sirius Minerals to the stage.

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Well, people are generally a bit thick. Labour promise everything will be free and people will vote for them. A bit like Libernum saying SXX shares are worth 9p.

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I thought it (2 x TBMs) was confirmed on Monday.

I just wonder if they could use just one (TBM) and line ALL of the tunnel. Worth investigating if there are any further delays to the project.
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The gripper saves the transportation of a lot of concrete segments.

If the spoil is to be sent to Teesport it’ll need to be stored at Woodsmith. I reckon it’ll be Stella Rose all the way.

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Drive 3 (I don’t think they’ll rename it Drive 2 as Stella Rose will complete Drives 1 and 2) is a less sturdy tunnel, offsetting performance to make cost savings. When in full cash-printing mode I hope we don’t rue the decision.

I think any more delays and they’ll settle for just one TBM. At 40m per day Stella Rose could reach Woodsmith by 2022/3 - depending on downtime for maintenance.

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Heat and mining the polyhalite. Two known risks, well understood.

It’ll be easier to mine at Woodsmith because of the thickness of the seam. Air conditioning?

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Fortunately, the RNS wasn’t issued to alleviate your fears.

It was an update on where our company is.

What will be will be.

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Labour will say anything. It’s easy when they are not likely to win a majority. But MPs local to Woodsmith May have had their day.

The government of either persuasion will be constrained by the same rules and have the advisers.

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Let’s assume that one day SM has a valuation of $18bn. The number of shares could rise quite a lot before each one is worth $1.

And if shares are issued, that is less debt to repay. In theory, that could mean dividends can be paid sooner. Of course, some profit will need to be invested to reach 20mtpa so early dividends might be a pipe dream.

I’d still be happy with 2p per share by 2028.

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Oops, that should read $2,500 million (RCF).

It’s early.

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Oops, that should read $2,500 million (RCF).

It’s early.

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Hi casapinos

Good to read your balanced view of the current situation.

Stage 2 in April 2019 required $400m (OO) + $400m (New convertible bonds) + $500m (Initial bonds) +$500m (RCF). A total of $3.8 billion.

The new plan is cheaper but has traded performance to deliver something less perfect.

As with any delay to a project of any size, there is a cost of that delay. Ongoing staff costs, building costs and other fixed overheads all need to be paid for. Then there’ll be the cost of recruiting staff that have been laid off. Lots of small costs that add up to something more significant. The longer the delay, so the greater that these costs become.

But SM must believe that this latest finance package is achievable. At what cost to current shareholders is unknown. That there will be a cost cannot be in doubt.

Personally, anything other than total wipeout is good news as I have mentally already written off my ~£45k initial investment (which is now £11k -ish).

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Somebody on Yorkshire Coast Radio’s FB has asked why Sirius didn’t use the harbour or train to get the product to Middlesbrough. You know, the ones in Whitby.

I can’t believe SM didn’t think of that :) :) :)

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It’s not just about the cost savings. It’s about revising the project plan to start delivering product to the customer earlier in the overall spend.

If the plan works, they’ll be delivering product before the tunnel is fitted out to final spec. So, shaft(s) sunk, tunnel built and polyhalite being delivered through the tunnel to sell to customers.

I think the plan is a pretty good compromise. Pleased to see that Rolls Royce of tunnels is being brought back to what is needed (at least for half of it). Someone led the company down the garden path with Drive 1.

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