Member Info for Oldone

The issue is not whether AVAP services airlines in Russia, but the possibility of Russia seizing aircraft of AVAP clients entering Russian airspace. airBaltic, an AVAP client, from memory, has suspended flights to Russia and Ukraine, which accounted for circa 7pct of its capacity. Even if it doesn't 'lose' any aircraft, operators such as airBaltic will be hit hard, which will flow on to aircraft lessors both directly via loss of revenue and indirectly by suppressing lessor charges just as the industry was edging towards recovery.

At last: some director/ senior management buying.
It sends the right message, and is a start to helping to improve sentiment towards the stock.

Point taken.
The half-on-half revenue (ie H1 '22 vs H2 '21) rise of just 3pc, which is itself half the 6pc rise for the previous half, (ie H2 '21 v h1 '21) makes clear the loss of momentum, irrespective of the explanation that it is mostly low margin SMS revenue that has disappeared. Along with anemic revenue growth, H2 of '22 will be hit with higher costs from new hires (higher wages) coupled with renewed marketing spend.
The briefing did make clear DOTD was hit by a talent raid in the U.S. (private equity got the cheque book out), that share options for staff is on the agenda, with a question re share buy-backs batted away by lumped it in with the usual debate over competing uses of capital - vis funding growth/M&A and buy-backs. Anyway, any decision must await the hiring, and onboarding of the new CFO, which is at the very least several months away.
Given the shares are trading at around 12x (annualised) earnings, DOTD is almost trading at cyclical value stock levels.
But without the board and senior management going into the market, it is impossible to expect a rebound anytime soon.

What a mess: in one fell swoop DOTD is now trading ex-growth. H1 revenue growth of plus 10pc to fade H2; H1 operating margin of 29pct to drop to circa 20pc in H2. U.S. revenue growth is minimal, even with strong market dynamics. It took a while for the company to admit that margins had been slashed thanks to the surge in SMS demand and, now that ship, too, has gone out, leading to faltering revenues. With Stg20m on the balance sheet (20pc of the company's worth) a buy-back should be on the agenda - but only after management puts some of their own money on the table and buy some shares, to signal their faith in the company. If not, why should anyone else buy? A fleeing CFO is never a good sign.

Mr Patel has some explaining to do at Friday's investor presentation. Revenue rose 23pc, but the pretax profit was up just 5pc. Ditto the rise in EPS which fails to impress. Clearly, he has yet to find the key to unlocking the way to offsetting the earnings squeeze from the surge in SMS volumes which is shredding margins of the broader business. There is some growth in SMS volumes through what it calls 'premium' SMS channels but it is unclear whether this carries fatter margins.
In this context, the hit to the share price should come as little surprise, and it may find it difficult to quickly regain upward momentum.

Fear of heights is not surprising, the way this good'un has run the past long while now. Part of the reason is strong execution by management. Also, it is in a sweet spot, given the surge in online transactions thanks to the Covid pandemic. Just as important may be residual takeover optimism. Management has made it clear in recent presentations that all of its rivals have been taken out by bigger groups. This presents opportunities as competitors form part of bigger outfits with differing growth objectives so they may lose their focus. It also means that DOT-D is the only independent left, so potentially ripe for the picking.

With three weeks to go to finalise a deal, will the outcome be subject to the outlook for tech shares in the U.S. if the sell-off there deepens? The bidder, Dye and Denham, has been issuing scrip like confetti the past few months as it tries to buy its way to glory. Its latest raising, at $C50.50, is well and truly underwater, which will make it difficult to issue more scrip anytime soon. It has raised $C1,075m and spent $C800m over the past few months, which doesn't leave a lot left over to pay for Idox, if the deal goes ahead.

Unsurprising, really, that the shares are off around 10pc from their recent high, given the H1 numbers which disclose unimpressive profit growth and soft cash generation. Gross profit rose just 7pct to Stg23.2m, hurt by an unexplained surge in the cost of sales to Stg5m, up 3.5-fold, which left cash generation at Stg2.2m well down from the Stg3.2m generated a year earlier. Rising software development spending is fundamental, but there are other factors at work which need some explaining. Hopefully the forthcoming presentation will fill in some of the details.

Less any dividend....

I wondered why the share price response to the trading update last month was so subdued; now we know why. Revenue is going gangbusters which is unsurprising given the market sector it is playing in, but a fair chunk of that growth is from SMS services, which has poor margins. Overall margins shrank 3 percentage points as a result, to 87pct in the year. Just how it will get on top of that squeeze requires an explanation.

Today's RNS doesn't read too well.... Hopefully there will be a clarifying statement sooner rather than later...

Thanks for that. If it is five, then that should be manageable.
Given the update came when the shares were at all-time lows, it will be interesting to see if management topped up their holdings ...

Avation was built out of leasing aircraft to Virgin Australia. Over the years, AVAP has done well to diversify customer and geographic risk. On the back of the C-virus, Virgin Australia is wobbling badly, and has gone to the government for a bailout. It seems accessing results presentations on the company’s website is no longer possible. Does anyone remember what portion of its assets are tied up with Virgin?

Now remind me, brains trust, how many AVAP aircraft are leased to Flybe? Five ATR’s, or is it more?

So, Stg39m from the Slater & Gordon settlement, plus Stg22m already in the swag from the Canada sale.
Pretty much clears the way for liquidation, so after costs a little over Stg1 a share??

The modest premium to the bid price is encouraging, although could just as easily be short covering on news of an offer. This share has attracted a fair bit of attention from short sellers 8n the past ...

At last, after 18 months consolidating just shy of 100p, this has finally broken out. Amid healthy volumes, to boot. With a trading update not due until mid-July, sentiment here has turned unusually bullish..
Let’s see if it can close some of the gap with Canaccord’s 140p target price.

Thanks. Well over a month after the release date of the past few years ...

Anyone have any idea when the interims are due? The past few years they’ve been out well before now ...

Putting the macro issues to one side - and there is a cornucopia of possibilities to chose from - there is a trading update due over the next few weeks so quite possibly some position taking is underway ahead of that.
The reality is these shares have traded sideways for 18 months now, focusing the mind on whether a ‘reversion to mean’ is underway, with the shares set to go nowhere for a few more years yet, or whether there is more to come on the upside.