Member Info for OldManHeats

What’s the source?

@Wiscos Don't think there is cash on hand currently to do that, there will be soon now that capex is dropping but will just take time.

@billyvalentine If you think the price is undervalued then just be happy that the shorters are giving you the opportunity to buy at these prices...claiming market manipulation just sounds like a sore loser. If they are wrong and you are right then they will lose a lot of money

Nothing corrupt about it and if i didn't own mine within an ISA then i would lend them out too, why not get extra cash and just hold the stock. If shorters wanna keep paying you for the privilege of being wrong then why not take their money?

Monzo do that same too, on their paid tiers they have free greggs as well. I think likely greggs does those deals for cost and then hopes that as the customer is there anyway they might buy other things

Can't see any deadline for it anywhere on that if they change it, it will be for April:

Next steps

All responses to this consultation will be reviewed and analysed by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) as well as relevant representatives from the Scottish

Government and Northern Ireland Executive. We will publish a joint response to the consultation, which will provide a summary of the views expressed by the respondents. It will also detail whether the UK government, the Scottish Government, and the Northern Ireland Executive intend to proceed with the proposed changes, in what form, and when.

Subject to the consultation outcome and ensuing legislative process, the respective governments, intend to make changes to inflation indexation before the start of the next scheme compliance year on 1 April 2026. The UK government, the Scottish Government, and the Northern Ireland Executive will lay their own secondary legislation to change the inflation indexation. The proposal would, if implemented, affect all accredited UK generators (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland).

I have a position in greggs but much more conviction on UKW, 10.5% div yield with great coverage even in very low wind years such as 23/24:

https://substack.com/home/post/p-183021998

What a wild ride this stock has been on since i sold in 2023

Yeah fair point, best of luck all

Https://www.gov.uk/government/news/record-breaking-auction-for-offshore-wind-secured-to-take-back-control-of-britains-energy

Lots of new assets to be built, will hopefully give more opportunity to buy and increase NAV per share

@Trenners Nothing wrong with being a trader dude, but you are letting price action dictate your decisions, that is literally trading. If you think the underlying business isn't strong and decided to sell that would be one thing but you seem to think that greggs will come out the other side so selling now is just hoping the price goes down so you can get back in, that is by definition trading. I'm on the side of those willing to wait as there is no way to predict when shorts will lose faith and start closing.

They can only keep pushing the price down as long as they keep increasing the short, it's not sustainable and those that are closing are just helping them. Guess you are all traders and not actual investors :)

What do you mean when you say pushing the price down so they can pick up shares? How do they drive the price down without dumping shares eg doing the opposite of what you are saying.

Even if it’s fairly valued then at some point 11% of the outstanding shares need buying up by shorter which will certainly push up the price

I didn’t get any fee notice from trading 212 when buying 20k shares, I wonder why it’s different for you all compared to other stocks?

Shorts still increasing, baffling

They did price in a 2.4% reduction in average windspeeds compared to previous assumptions but i think they are referring to climate change reducing average wind speeds long term:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/uk-wind-power-potential-could-fall-2100-because-climate-change/

2021 they used 7% but up to 11% in 2024 as stated previously in the comments

The main confusion here seems to be that Bunsen is describing a situation where SP drops and eventually goes back up to NAV or higher but others are thinking on the lines of SP goes down and stays down. Theoretically it is always better for the SP to be lower for a company that you know without a doubt is worth more and will return to that value (Market being a weighing machine in the long run). The market tends to be relatively efficient though and if the SP is dropping it is likely due to some real risks or issues with the fund and people no longer trusting the calculation of NAV.

For example Bunsen you say that higher interest rates is why the price is dropping and while it does acount for some of the reduction of NAV, the NAV should also be boosted because higher interest rates is because of higher inflation which means higher future cash flows. In the most recent half year report they state that 0.5% rise in inflation has more benefit to the NAV than 0.5% rise in interest rates. Either way I'm glad they are now using 11% discount rate as i think the 7% they were using back in 2021 is not conservative enough and that rate should be used regardless of 10 year guilt yields but i'm not a financial professional...

Anyway, back to the point about people distrusting the NAV calculation. Bunsen do you have any thoughts on why every year since 2016 the generation has been lower than budget estimations? Page 8 of the 2024 full year report says from 2016-24 they have been: -2%, -1%, -2%, -7%, -1%, -19%, -3%, -11%, -11% of their expected power generation and have compared this to the uk weighted average wind speed of which some years was higher than expected. At some point you have to start to question if their predicted generation is accurate? There seems to be a trend in declining average wind speeds which is hard to pin down to climate change but these are real questions that create real risk for the investment.

Personally i do think this is oversold and have bought 2 10k tranches under £1 but will keep digging as to assume the market is just being irrational is to to make an ass out of me or whatever...

The price would slip after the ex-dividend date not the payment date as you can sell after ex date and still get the dividend.

I also agree about a lower stock price being better for returns especially as I'm assuming you didn't account for buybacks with excess cashflow that the fund is now doing. The lower the price the more effecient those buybacks are and the lower the dividend cost to the company eg the better the coverage

You are down on your investing as a whole through one of the longest ever bulls runs? I don't mean to be a dick but i think it's probably time to just bogglehead invest. In fact it was probably that time about 5 years ago

"In the recent disposals, the NAV was that established a couple of days before the sale. So we have no idea whether a good price was achieved or not."

What do you mean, you think those assets weren't included in the NAV before the sale and the value was calculated just days before?