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Hold this thought for 3 months then let's all re-visit these sentiments and see who was nearer the truth.
Well, maybe so. It certainly is the case that we have reached the "show me" stage now, with no place else to hide. I fully expect positive testing results to be followed by one or more commercially lucrative deals in short order, otherwise the sp will continue to track along a broadly sideways pattern that it has over the past 2 years or so. For me, the risk/reward is off the scale, but nothing is guaranteed in life, except you know what....
Legalwolf, eat your heart out.
We are going into a news-rich period in PRD's life cycle now. Hold onto those golden tickets for dear life, tempting as it may be to trade, take profits after a sudden jump or become obsessed with near term developments. This is going to be a full year story, at the very least. And thank you to the very knowledgeable posters who put in time and effort to explain their thinking about the potential enormity of what we have here. My 0.8% of the company isn't going anywhere, soon. GLA.
Yes, good news albeit another legally non-committal LOI.
The waiting game will go on, unfortunately, as the bulk sample requested by various Chinese entities will not be tested and purified until the end of this quarter, and then BRES must wait for commercial responses, however long that may take. So, best outcome is probably supply offtake deal(s) by mid-year?
The numbers underlying today's RNS are solid from a cash flow generation point of view, but hardly transformation along the lines being discussed regularly by the leading lights here all last year. $80mn discounted npv for CM isn't. A 10-20mmcfpd CNG operation isn't.
This whole RNS is uninspiring, but maybe that's the point. Bring us all down to earth in terms of expectations, which went too far the other way last year, and then pleasantly surprise on the upside.
I can't see any explosive reaction in the sp from this one. But it should provide a much needed floor from which to rise through Q1.
Gudin, your 10.37 post is spot on. There was some wishful thinking in the last PRD rns on this subject.
I can only conclude that an outright sale of the Moroccan interests is being worked on as soon as the flow tests come back as expected, or better, OR, another placing will be required in H1 2024, to fund more drilling. My only wish is that future placings, inevitable for development stage small listed entities, will come at progressively higher prices and that we finally get out of this two-year long trading range around 8p.
Yes, Gudin, there are grounds for believing the last rns, hyping near-term cash flow from CM and a revised CPR, was fluff to soften the blow of no flow test results from Guercif in this quarter, or indeed this whole year.
The flow test numbers now need to be timely, and robust economically, as posters like Jimmy believe it will be, and then the focus will shift right back onto the upside of the Guercif licence and cash flow creation, away from CM.
It seems patently obvious that more drilling at Guercif needs cash from a CNG operation, as the logical funding source. I cannot countenance yet another placing at this level to move things along. Who can?
Fingers crossed that there will be no more regulatory or techbnical obstacles in the way of a January flow test.
That's why, with investor sentiment here so beaten down by delays, regulatory hurdles, technical obstacles, when the flow test results do come out and likely surpass measured expectations, PRD could witness a standout valuation uplift almost immediately, that will surprise by its momentum as little is built in now.
Any guesses on opening spread next Friday/Monday week, assuming things work as they are supposed to?
Mine's 15-19p.
That's a mighty big sample, SS!
The missing link to make all this happen, given that funding "seems" to be a non issue now, is to find the right industry partner to be the project builder and operator. MR has indicated before that running a graphite processing plant is not in his skillset. Presumably it has to be non-Chinese. POSCO, perhaps?
Not looked at rbw before, but a cursory glance at that company shows a current MC of £89mn, and a business looking to give up between 15% and 33% in exchange for a DFS-determined project equity valuation range of $150mn to $333mn. Is that all that rbw has? If so, it makes bres a screaming buy given the project equity upside at OC, and current MC of some £10mn with funding quite possible from the same source.
What a day. What a disappointment for us LTHs who believed, based partly on this discussion board's thoughtful posters and certain others, that silence meant big things going on in the background. And partly being led to believe that flow testing was about to happen after the previous RNS, as part of MOU negotiations.
Now, I can't believe that there is a finite probability that PRD might actually end up losing the Guercif licenxe, after February 5th 2024, through inaction/no flow testing/drilling in the next 9 week window.
Yes, it may seem fanciful, but no, it cannot be dismissed as dangerous thinking. We are dealing with a 3-persdon team, stretched between Morooco, T&T and Ireland assets with all their necessary regulaory hoops to comply with, funding to assign to, and indicvidual responsibilities to carry out.
For the first time this year, I now believe that GRH's categorisation of PRD shares as being "options" has never been truer. THe upside Trillions of Cuft of gas underling the license must be balanced against a real, but slim, chance of seeing it slip through our fingers. I can't quite believe the opposite pulls of momentous/ominous importance in this corporate story, which is slowly unfolding but reaching a pivot point.
Is this why PG has today upped the importance, scale-wise, to CM to match that of Guercif? Is CM his safety bunker?
I note this paragraph from today's RNS:
"A further extension of six months to 5 February, 2024 was agreed with Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines ("ONHYM") to allow for the completion of the MOU-3 and MOU-4 drilling programme and associated reports and studies and for a potential rigless testing programme to be executed subject to a review of the drilling results."
I am reading this as PRD having just 9 weeks, to February 5 2024, to complete the rigless testing and submit a report to ONHYM.
Are we down to the final strokes now, after all the extensions, delays etc? I.E. is it a realistic possibility that PRD may lose its Moroccan licences through this key date passing uneventfully at Guercif?
I sense an element of urgency in today's RNS that underlies this new panic to get over the wire in time.
Or is yet another licence extension a mere formality?
PRD is fully funded for a rigless testing operation but not further drilling of MOU-5 , which will depend on revenues coming through in a timely manner from CM. How likely is that?
Never mind us PI shareholders. AK will come out of this all right in the end, with his multi-million $ bonuses and free shares. That's what really matters, for him, eh?
On behalf of the silent majority of PI investors in PRD, who read this bb, I thank you, @KeithOz, for all your input which is of the highest order of objectivity. Patience will reward us handsomely, imho.
I wasn't aware that this interview was going to take place, otherwise I woud have asked questions.
Anyway, it was a customary coherent and articulate explanation by MR of the Blencowe opportunity.
What was new to me was the first time mention of POSCO, as a possible offtaker. This would indeed be a major plus for Blencowe, giving added credibility and financial backing to the project. and away from Chinese sponsorship, which the DFC would clearly prefer. My only concern is that this could be a two-edged sword, if the bulk sample testing by POSCO fails to meet their internal specs. What then? Is there another non-Chinese credible graphite-using entity out there that might take Orom Cross material, as a back up to POSCO?
Anyway, that's an issue for mid-2024. We won't know much until around then. In the meantime, the DFC payment instalments and progress on the initial DFS should support the sp. An insititutional investor coming in for a size block of new equity at a premium to 5p would also boost sentiment.
So far, so very good, MR.
What a f...ing disaster this has turned out to be.