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But you just know that GRH will put a rosy twist on this shocking RNS.
Not even one Twitter post from Blencowe in the last 6 days. Mike's keeping his thoughts close to his chest this time.
This whole thread has become very very silly.
Why not just wait a few weeks for the real numbers to come out of PRD, and then discuss the new reality?
Let's wait and see what Mike R reports back from his visit to DFC (and other places there, like AETC?).
This is the first time I can recall more than one poster contemporaneously de-ramping BRES.
Interesting.
Wow. That has to rank amongst the most informative RNSs I have ever seen from a micro-sized UK listed company.
So many throwaway lines, but they all add up to ringing a bell for the start of the next leg in this evolving graphite story. It boggles the mind that BRES is still valued at £10mn. The wider market is going to discover BRES over the next year and the true value of Orom Cross will become apparent. SPG grade material, equal to the best in the world, with superior environmental credentials, is the green light for a valuation sea-change, imho.
Well done Blencowe!
No, that would be inside information.
But I did have an interesting dialogue with Mike about the SPG testing process, to satisfy my own lack of understanding, reprinted below:
Me:
Now on to the next stage, getting Orom-Cross material to pass the SPG quality threshold test. I note in your last comment that this is being assessed in the USA, but that “further OEM SPG testing...will be required as part of our DFS”.
I don’t quite understand why one, industry-standard test by a reputable industrial entity won’t be sufficient for this testing, rather than multiple tests.
MR:
"Plenty of reasons (1) having two experts say this upgrades fantastically is better than one, (2) both experts have different methods for upgrading so we can hopefully choose the best, (3) cost differences, (4) environmental differences, (5) choice of JV partner for downstream processing, (6) strategic implications (if we only rely on Chinese IP that may be an avenue cut off ahead). Ultimately the OEMs themselves want to see as much met test info as possible so as to move to offtake contracts. "
Me:
Also, is passing this SPG test the next phase criteria for releasing the next DFC money tranche?
MR: "Not on its own but it is one of the key deliverables within the next milestone payment."
All in all, it sounds like BRES is keeping its options fully open as regards commercial, funding and geopolitical aspects of the decision to invest (including in a higher value added downstream processing plant at Orom Cross).
From e mail correspondence with MR, I believe he will be in the USA next week, talking to DFC about "the broader project funding".
As Mike said to me, "We could not ask for a better partner ahead and particularly in light of the recent moves by China to restrict graphite exports (this will have a profound impact on the US Govt and its graphite policy)."
Whatever happened to those timelines offered in the December 2022 corporate presentation?
Another AIM company underdelivering.
Merchantbanker,
In a world free of serious trade spats between China and the US, you are perfectly correct in your analysis. I do hope it turns out that way. We all win then.
I am looking ahead to a quite possibly more difficult superpower trading standoff, as China flexes its economic and military power more aggressively. Don't know when exactly, but this graphite export license business is a very real starter for ten, of their options being considered.
The sooner the West wises up, makes a determined effort to produce SPG grade graphite in quantities needed for their Western EV production plans, the better. Otherwise, we will be a hostage to fortune, as recent developments noted above, exemplify.
Jimmy,
Under this scenario, presumably PRD would also start to receive net revenues much earlier than with a CNG solution. By Q1 2024? $270k/day of net revenues equates more or less to $100mn p.a. The market would quickly assign a multiple of that to the equity valuation, imho. Plus, being simplicity itself, this wellhead sale solution would make for a clean and straightforward corporate transaction for the MOU-Fan and other hydrocarbon reservoirs. Again, speeding up completion of/monetising a transaction.
I know it's Saturday evening, but, oh, I do wish posters could write in English with the correct grammar/spelling.
So the DFC, supporting US businesses, is going to sit back and allow BRES to ship graphite product back to China, when US EV manufacturers can't access Chinese graphite exports from December 1st?
That doesn't make sense. Something has to give.
The only thing that will keep Chinese graphite users in the loop will be if BRES requires Chinese technology transfer to enable it to process raw graphite in Uganda, at Orom-Cross, to SPG grade and enjoy a quantum leap in revenue generation.
Seabright, sir, your level of understanding of the Guercif Basin is on another planet compared to mine, and I thank you for trying to explain the potential here for us non-geologists. Truly.
But please help me out here. I'm assuming that you aren't the only person alive who has made this interpretation of seismic movements and their massive import. I just don't get why, apart from one failed deep drill by, who was it, Conoco a few decades ago, the big O&G companies haven't thrown $millions at this area to validate what you understand to be there, pregnant for discovery. Until PG took over the licence, that is.
Sincere best wishes for unlocking the secrets of Guercif in my lifetime.
Michael Caine sounds just as chipper the age of 90 as he did 50 years ago.
Long lived assets.
Jimmy, there are many on here who really appreciate your total objectivity, keeping our feet firmly on the ground, but aware of the blue sky above. Thank you.
Well, that's very interesting. It's the first time, as far as I can tell, that the SPG testing will be undertaken in the USAS. I had thought all along that it was being tested in China, as an extension of the bulk sample testing.
It makes the likelihood of a US-financed and partnered downstream processing plant for the higher value added SPG material, that much more likely.
Tesla, anyone?
You lot continue to discuss the"wishful thinking" shopping list, because you are stuck in the invested mode, but maybe you should pay more attention to RR's "ouch" case scenario. Quite likely, imho.
Lol.
Good to see from my Seville holiday vantage point, the armchair pundits air their wide of the mark speculations about what has been happening in Guercif of late.
Just let PG get the equipment he needs to finish the job and then update us. It will be slower and quite probably smaller in scale than some of the outrageous figures being bandied about, but nevertheless well worth waiting for.
Thoughts, vernet?