Member Info for Okehurst1

I wouldn’t worry Rock, we are up 42% YTD
More to come

Guess it makes no odds to the share price what we think/say

The activists are driving this one now and will the Shorts keep feeding them ? Plus we await Sparta’s TR1 and their letter to follow

Going to be an interesting month

With the Golden Share expiring soon Mouldings grip won’t be as strong
It’s also in his interest to get the share price up, gets the Activists off his back and avoids bids in a few months time

More of the same this week as II buyers step up and test the Shorts to double down

MM’s mark down a penny or 2, mop up weak hands and we grind towards 70p is my call

Rock
Suggest SB is correct

Items like the 10% share buy back require input from the CFO / banks etc
We don’t know the terms of the covenants for example
Plus we are in a closed season

We are expecting an RNS this month, the BoD have been given time by Kelso to consider their recommendations, think the market has to wait until they receive a meaningful response

I think the Chairman should respond when the timing the right, that’s his job not MM’s
will he interesting to see if he pops his head above the parapet?

Good points OSG

Markets work on cycles/ momentum

Think we can say last October was the low for the Nasdaq and for THG, we have jumped 42% YTD already, the cycle/ market has moved to risk on

As Kelso say after meeting THG management ‘ we have tailwinds behind us - good heads up in Q1 for us PI’s that info

The II Shorts are generally smart, they can see all this, Marshall have reduced a tad this week but still need a whopping 21M shares alone to exit their position which we believe is 90p average ?

70M to 140m share buy back - if enacted / possibility
70M index funds
21M Marshall
36M other disclosed Shorts
Plus Shorts under .5% ?

Throw in Kelso / other activists adding

No idea how the Shorts close out as we wind down the clock up premium listing, anyone selling at the moment gets their shares snapped up

My take

April RNS

THG BoD push out the Boat and announce FCF positive Q1
Premium listing - think this is 100% cert
Golden share expires by default
Disinvestment non core
Improving margins / further cost cutting

Suggest good chance for all above, if they add below

Overseas listings incorporating independent fund raise / self funding for Ingenuity
Share buy back - tailwinds of cash getting thrown off especially Ingenuity self financed
And possibly the nuclear option, separate listing for all 3 companies

It’s all bets off at that point as the share price rockets and MM stays in control

Rock fully agree, Shorts feeding the buyer

Sparta will show their hand soon, just a question of timing and how long after crossing the 2.99% can they keep accumulating before issuing the TR1 ?

Wouldn’t be surprised Kelso and Sparta are speaking but not yet joined as a concert party

The concern for the BoD would be a Bid for £2 a share - as a figure - and the bidder goes public over their head which is possible with activists now making demands public

That may test the resolve of the II’s IF at 65p a share

The share buyback would support the share price alongside index funds buying in afterwards - 10% would be 145M plus shares , plus 70M for Index funds

Without the full £80M intangible capex due to Autostore JV THG could manage - personally I would like to see debt brought down to Zero but take on board the BoD are under pressure to get the share price up and head off a Bid, that would do the trick

Don’t think the market has fully woken up to Autostore JV

In effect Ingenuity can sell / project manage / a service to automate warehouses in installing robotics to pick / handle
30% of normal capex to 3rd party then PAYC
Ingenuity manage the API’s and User Interface between all parties using their extensive experience
Close to zero capex , cash positive
We signed a deal with GOAT Labs to promote in India

THG can do the same in any country globally leveraging their in house skill base and experience

It’s a smart deal/ nice opportunity and a big market

When it’s laid out as below ,THG is one exciting business

‘THG has achieved some major commercial accomplishments such as a burgeoning relationship with Iceland, which exemplifies the brand value of MyProtein, the formalisation of a technology partnership with Autostore, the increased presence in several large German retailers and the move into the gym sector’

It’s not the CFO he’s becoming a CFO, he’s not on BoD
Been at THG for years

Good luck to him with his promotion

That got taken out easy enough …

Autostore were suing for patent infringement, had they have won Ocado would I guess have had to pay a license fee on those patents in question

Doesn’t affect an Autostore customer mind

Let’s wait and see Steve

Agree on your main point

MM is an Entrepreneur, he hustles for the deal and works the grift, it’s what entrepreneurs do, he’s built 1 business generating £1B plus a year and he’s close to having a 2nd

He’s also building a 3rd with Ingenuity

Personally I hope he raises the funding for Ingenuity and builds his 3rd multi billion $$ business.

Nb via one broker, big slugs at a time, has to be them

Not sure if they have hit 43M shares as yet though

Yup

One spreadbetting firm owns 12% of Kelso

Suggest we will see more conversions to platforms,
the beneficiaries can then add gearing so £300,000 original investment over 2 placings and they could in theory secure £600,000 of THG shares ,privately and through Kelso

No CGT as well

We have to thank John Goold for the work he had put in on this one, he knew the value of THG having been working for 6 months last year managing institutional investors after leaving Zeus Capital

Don’t think this would have happened without John, he’s played a smart game, this has been well thought out and we can now see their game plan and Sparta by default

Sparta letter next ….

Tbh didn’t see the share buyback in their game plan, prefer we chip debt but when they raise $$ for Ingenuity / USA listing they will be churning cash

We will know EBITA margins for Nutrition & Beauty this month post them paying Ingenuity for their services

Brokers think 12% and 5% and no rent of note of course as Ingenuity pay that out

Finance costs are £60M but this will be offset with cash on deposit with interest rates higher as net debt £160M ,if they have completed the disposal that is.

Set up quite nicely from here