Member Info for OilViking1

Agreement for Kirkuk oil

Agreement only for Kirkuk oil. Watch the following from Barzani's twitter or X.

"In parallel, our discussions with Baghdad will continue with urgency to lift the restrictions on imports and trade into the Kurdistan Region, and to secure guarantees for oil and gas companies so they can safely resume production."

As I have written before, Stevo12 is wrong about Enquest. He talked about a company that was going bankrupt, what a joke. I wrote that it is not true. Since then the stock has gone up almost 100%.

He is wrong about Enquest needing 80 USD per barrel to make free cash flow. Oil price of about 70 USD per barrel gives Enquest about 140 million USD in free cash flow. He is completely wrong.

And I agree, the timing of the Magnus deal couldn’t have been better. What a damn good deal. Well done Amjad and the management

Stevo12

We don't have any bet on net debt. However, we had a bet for berakeven oil price for 2026. You said 65 USD Brent. I'm lowering mine from 58 to 50 USD due to the new operation update. Nice hedges, nice purchase of the entire Magnus field and less Capex for 2026.

You've been wrong all along. Your talk about a financially stressed company was not true. You've lost.

According to my calculations, the share price for this company is still too low. There is potential to go up several 100 percent if the right producing assets in the UK are purchased.

Full PSC terms are against the Iraqi constitution. It doesn't matter what some CEOs or those who talk up the stocks say. The day I see signatures that full PSC terms apply, I will believe what Garret Soden says. But unfortunately we have been hearing that for almost three years.

As usual, Garret Soden is talking crap. How can Shamaran double the free cash flow if the companies are still getting about 16 usd per barrel. Who is he trying to fool? Can a CEO of a listed company really express himself like that without having papers signed by Iraq?

$16/bbl payment on 100% of produced barrels

‐ Roughly equivalent to local sales revenues

He is talking about full PSC terms. Will Iraq agree to these contracts? Probably not going to happen as long as Iraq lacks an oil and gas law

2025 has passed and now it's time for the coming years. Enquest is growing organically very quickly. In 2026, production will be approximately 55 thousand barrels per day and in 2027, production will be approximately 65 thousand barrels per. Brent oil at around 70 USD gives FCF around 350 million just for 2026-2027. Compared to net debt of approximately USD 430 million

The net debt for Harbour is growing rapidly. About 7 billion USD is no joke.

Enough about Enquest. We'll see.

Sekforde

All your calculations are wrong. From the time you were invested in Enquest until now.

Harbour's net debt would have been greater than about 7 billion, but the company also gave away shares for about 700-1000 million USD depending on the true value of Harbour's shares.

Enquest requires around 55 usd brent to break even. The company will receive about 10 thousand new barrels per day starting this January and about 10 thousand more in 2027. Production will end up at about 65 thousand barrels per day.

How will Enquest be able to report the exact net debt when all the figures have not been received. In February, the company will show the net debt. It will be around 400-450 million USD.

Are people really talking about insolvency regarding Enquest. Hahah

A comparison between Enquest and Harbour:

Harbour:

Production approx. 500 thousand barrels per day (approx. 60% of the production outside UK)

Net debt approx. 7 billion USD

Enquest:

Production approx. 55 thousand barrels per day (approx. 50% of the production outside UK)

Net debt approx. 400 million USD

I think both companies are good and undervalued but the fact that people are talking about insolvency shows how stupid people are.

Krakenoil

Enquest and Amjad are doing everything right. Production is increasing and the company's production will probably be around 55 thousand barrels per day in 2026. That's incredibly good, but unfortunately we are unlucky with the oil price. The only thing the company can improve right now is a purchase of producing assets in the UK. The company can do nothing more.

An oil price of around 50-55 USD per barrel is in the death zone for almost all oil companies worldwide. 50-55 USD works for no one. Therefore, in the long term, the oil price should go up and be between around 70-90 USD per barrel. In the long term, I am not worried about the oil price.

In addition to the above, we can only hope that the gas price in the UK will drop by about 15-20 percent. Then the EPL will no longer apply.

In my opinion, Enquest's stock is grossly undervalued. Even calculated for today's low oil price, the share is undervalued. Production in Southeast Asia will double from January 2026. In 2027, the company will hopefully also receive production from DEWA, ​​probably at least 7 thousand barrels per day. All of this should bring the company's production above 60 thousand barrels per day, which is incredibly good.

Calculate for the above production and an oil price of about 65 USD and PE ratio 6 (2026,2027,2028,2029, 2030 and 2031) gives about 1 billion USD in FCF. About 4 times the current market capitalization.

The share should not have been below about 25 GBX.

Stevo

1. All the info is directly extracted from Serica’s financial statements.

2. Triton was a disaster even in 2024. Triton has nothing to do with Dana's work. It is a rusty and broken platform. It will take a lot of money to fix the problems. A big financial burden for both Dana and Serica. The problems will probably continue.

3. At the end of 2024, Serica's reserves (2P) decreased by approximately 10 million barrels in addition to what the company had produced that year. Serica CAPEX for that year did not added any 2P reserves. They lost more than they produced. Really weak

4. As I wrote, even if BP's reserves of Magnus are excluded, Enquest still has more reserves than Serica. Serica needs to waste a lot of money to catch up with Enquest. Probably reach almost the same net debt.

And to be completely honest, you're the one who needs to cut down on Brandy source.

Wouldn't it be better if you log out of here and stick to Serica and Harbour's chat. What are you doing here? You're not adding anything except presenting crappy numbers that benefit your agenda.

Stevo12

You're playing with numbers and making things up. Everything you write is not true. Enq has an annual cash obligation of perhaps approximately 50m usd higher than Serica. Because Serica also has many liabilities and many problems, especially with production.

1. Serica pays a whopping 78% tax on half of the production. They cannot use their tax deductions against half of the production. Big minus for Serica.

2. The entire Triton platform is rusty and could collapse at any time. About half of the production is from there. The day it collapses it will cost the company a huge amount of money. If it doesn't collapse it will continue to cause problems for production. That's why Serica is aggressive with buying new production.

3. Enquest CAPEX approx 10 usd per barrel compared to Serica approx 20 usd per barrel.

4. Serica increases net debt to be able to pay dividends. And not because the company makes a lot of money.

5. Serica has no geographic spread. The company has tried to buy in Norway but they can't afford it.

6. Enquest has more 2P reserves even if BP's share of Magnus is excluded. So BPs share is not a liabiliti, it is their share.

According to my calculations, Enquest shares are worth approx 35 GBX and Serica's about 220 GBX per share.

So the answer to your question is no, both companies are equal and should be valued equally.

The discount is injustice

The market is often wrong. There are no Einsteins buying and selling shares. And in Enquest's case, the market is grossly wrong. In my opinion (everyone should make their own assessment), Enquest shares are currently very undervalued.

Take the current oil price (along with the hedges etc) and do a calculation for the next 6 years gives FCF of approx 900 million USD. More than double the company's net debt and almost 4 times the company's current market value.

But I agree with you the company needs to start showing this.

From 2026 onwards we will all see this. As long as the oil price stays at reasonable levels.

Nothing more from me until the operations update in February.

Stevo12

you are wrong on every point.

A comparison between the companies is as follows:

Harbour: Reserves (2P)-approx 1,5b barrels, production-approx 500k barrels per day & net debt approx 7 billion. Total shares approx 1,6b

Serica: Reserves (2P)-approx 145m barrels, production-approx 35k barrels per day & net debt approx 200 million. Total shares approx 395m

Enquest: Reserves (2P)-approx 160m barrels, production-approx 50k barrels per day & net debt approx 400 million. Total shares approx 1,9b

With no changes to EPL and according to me net asset value per share is as follows (Everyone should make their own assessment, should not be used to buy or sell shares in mentioned companies):

Harbour: Approx 275 GBX

Serica: Approx 210 GBX

Enquest: Approx 30 GBX

Stevo12

No boy. You began at 70 usd per barrel and now you are at 62,5 usd. But Ok I am on.

People you see Stevo is becoming more positive.

If Enquest is currently not undervalued then both Serica and Harbour are definitely overvalued. Harbour doesn't make any FCF in the UK unless they halve CAPEX. We saw that in your calculations.

Brent price below 60 usd is death zone for almost every oil company. Below approx 55-60 usd works for one one. You put it as if this only applies to Enquest but you are very wrong.

Stevo12

Closest to outcome wins bet (me $58/barrel, you $62.5/barrel) and loser pays £200 to charity of winners choice.

You are wrong again. The oil price is not the only thing that can make the share price go up. There are many more things.

Just calculate on a production of approx 55 thousand barrels per day. Brent oil price of about 70 usd. For PE ratio 6 (2026,2027,2028,2029,2030 and 2031) gives a share price of approx 40-45 GBX

Stevo12

Regarding why Cobas, Schroder and Aberforth have all increasing their holdings. You are wrong again. It is absolutely not about conviction that oil prices are going to return to and stay in the $90’s. Now you make me laugh HAHAHAH.

They are increasing because the stock is significantly UNDERVALUED.

Stevo12

Nope you say 65 USD per barrel and I say 55 USD per barrel. I'm sticking to $55 per barrel for breakeven FCF for Enquest during 2026.

And if Enquest also halved its CAPEX, breakeven would have been at around USD 45 per barrel.

Just admit that you are too negative about Enquest.

Stevo12

Thanks for your calculation regarding Harbour. I can see right away where Harbour gets its "FCF". It is not FCF but a halving of CAPEX. The company is cutting CAPEX to make a profit. Without investments, production will collapse and sooner or later the company will have to invest again. Money saved now will have to be wasted later.

This proves what I have said that Harbour needs plus approx 85-90 USD for Brent oil to breakeven for the UK production. Without tax deductions, there's no point in pumping oil.

If Enquest had done what Harbour does regarding CAPEX, Enquest would have made FCF of about 150 USD in 2025 and about 270 million USD in 2026, calculated for a Brent price of about 70 USD. But then you would have been on this chat and daily pointed out negative things about Enquest pulling in on CAPEX and so on.