Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Great post, Proselenes. It astounds me that people are not listening and reading, and then sensibly analyzing as you are doing. It is good that you seem to be able to add a bit of professional oil knowledge as well.
One thing has become certain with Captain Jolly Roger in the past few years. He is the last person you would want to be in the trenches with.
Not going to post any more? "I changed my mind".
All is rosy for next year. Let's charge!!! "I changed the plan".
Steady as she goes chaps. “By 2pm however I'd changed my mind.”
Now, "we are all doomed" as he cleverly gnaws away like a rat at his latest de-ramping scrap, a placing.
25 Oct – “But on the upside in 10 years time I'll be able to honestly say that I bought in at the very bottom. “
28 Oct – “And I'm afraid I haven't changed 180 degrees. I was always planning to move to UKOG after the Heron result”
“The only strategy that works I find is not to be fixed to a plan and then stick to it when it looks to not be going the way you thought it should.”
25 Oct – “CPR and oil reserves are a certainty. …………..More wells, more oil, a steady income stream and a steadily improving understanding of the geology with increasing chances of finding more oil in the block.”
And now cleverly talking up the possibility of a fund raise by placing.
The shame is that 90% of his commentary is soundly based and his arguments are smartly mounted. But 10% is utterly self-serving and deliberately misleading. Caveat Emptor/Venditor. He is not an investor, he is a day trader posing in self-righteous clothes.
It would also help if the board published their formal business plan and a general, updated mission statement. Obviously it would need to be flexible and not be too restrictive and dogmatic. Also allow for deviations as opportunities arise and avoid any commercial sensitivities. To have a general direction of the company laid out in the form of a business plan should be a normal part of business, and the shareholders and investors deserve to be informed of such. It could also cause a cessation of the constant uninformed speculations on this and other bbs that damage the company and its reputation.
Beware Captain Stanley, as I (and others) have pointed out many times over the years. He sails up close to the good ship Matad and at the last moment hauls down his “Serious Commentator” flag and raised the skull and crossbones, showing his true colours.
In complete accord with his three year record of posting on the MATD board, he did exactly what he always does - albeit much more cleverly and subtly than other rampers/derampers: Traded shares the opposite way to his recommendations and writings.
When taken to task always has a clever, self-justifying reply, getting closer to fooling the sailors on “Matad” that he is a friendly ship from a friendly fleet.
Witness his latest disingenuous reply to Ojay when tackled about his 180 degrees turnaround. A week ago he was furiously defending MATDs financial independence and lack of need for a placement. Today he is adamant a placement is needed. And into the bargain smoothly lies about it to Ojay and others.
He spent most of 2017-2018 picking faults with MATD management. Despite his arguments last time, they were minor faults, as history has shown. (And despite his statements, he wasn't even posting on this board during the Bergen times). I have no doubt he was buying during those cleverly phrased postings.
Then in 2019 he gradually converted to full-on praise for MATD, its prospects and management. In the past month he was posting positive reviews about the company and its long term solidity.
Then sold.
No doubt he is a clever day trader and we should admire people who pull a profit from short term trading in "our" company. No problems with that. MATD is turning into a good trading stock with a lot of liquidity and traders cannot be denied.
And they are welcome to boast or cry about their successes and failures anywhere they like. But the “good” Captain and others who practice their dark arts of decrying or promoting for their own ends are different creatures.
You have to ask yourself why does he engage on the BBs? Why doesn't he just sit in his captain’s cabin and read the postings and do his clever trading from his own research, not needing or bothering to share his views with the world? There are two correct answers:
He likes to show off his knowledge, successes and his insight and secondly believes that he can affect the share price to his own ends. To be honest, I believe that most of his writings are soundly based summaries of the company. Crucially, he is not consistently correct and is prone to falsehoods or false leads. Those inconsistencies expose his true intentions, if you can pick them.
I would advise all readers and contributors to read him and admire the prose and the elegance of his arguments and lies. Just be aware his enthusiasm, criticisms and even comments are written for his own purposes and he always has hidden agendas. He has the Jolly Roger ready to hoist, and cannons primed as soon as he reaches optimal proximity. And takes no prisoners.
Oiler87 – your recent posts stamp you as either a massive troll, a professional de-ramper or an ignorant investor.
“Not a country known for oil” – every major study of Mongolia by various bodies (including the first by Conoco Philips in 1990) has concluded that Mongolia is prospective for oil. It has only been exposed to limited exploration , and then only in about the quarter of the country in the southeast and east. Apart from MATD's two brave 2018 wells in the centre of the country (which demonstrated that petroleum systems exits there).
“No majors in the area” – The second and third largest oil companies in the world (Sinopec and Petro China) have both exploration and production acreage in Mongolia
“A commercial discovery will take millions to put into production” – It costs about $250,000 to purchase and install a pump, and I understand that MATD already have two in stock. So Heron could be in production at well below your wild estimate, and either being sold to the Petro China collection point 20kms north, or picked up by a tanker for China as the haul road runs right past it. No infrastructure costs apart from a 5km power line for the pump.
“Russians and Chinese abandoned Mongolia oil search” – The Russians found oil there in the 1960’s (and those are still pumping for Sinopec). They did no countrywide search in their soviet days as they had sufficient resources in Kazakhstan and Siberia. The Chinese were not allowed into the country until 1990’s and they immediately entered on the back of SOCO’s discovery, and have since pumped and exported millions of barrels of oil. Other smaller Chinese outfits are currently exploring in Mongolia, and Russians are looking out in the west of the country.
“Massive dilution to fund next year’s campaign” – As of 4 months ago, MATD had $12m in the bank. As a worst case scenario, let’s say their current 2020 campaign and administration costs have eaten up $4m of that. That leaves $8m going into 2020. More than enough to cover the fourth promised well in 2020, or a more focussed and cheaper drilling campaign near Heron with a view to more early production. No fundraising of any sort needed.
To my surprise I find myself admiring Captain Stanley’s latest works, and in particular his “battleship” analogy. And kudos to Proselenes for his excellent technical input.
But you, sir, are ignorant.
Terrific idea Hallowed. I have never filtered anybody before (despite being tempted at times), but will make an exception here. Why someone would stick around making and answering endless threads for no other reason than predicting when he/she will buy or not buy is beyond me. The posts contained no information or opinions of value at all. He/she may as well go onto the BP bulletin board and spout about how he will buy when they declare a dividend or will not buy if they don't. The very definition of a "troll" I think. Enough......filtered for the sake of a cleaner board, like you.
I've got to hand it to Captain Stanley. He is one of the cleverer operators on this and other boards. Well written, never too much over the top and constantly re-writing history to make himself look like the seer and a savvy investor. He has been repeating this formula for at least three years now, whether he is buying or selling. He takes a sliver of light in the door and jams his foot in it, creating confusion and hesitation in order to drive his agenda.
Long live OneRule and Sharedealing who seem to have CS figured out as well
His constant harping on small issues in 2017 and 2018 were in the main designed to keep the share price down and make the management look incompetent. No phrase in an RNS was too small for CS to jump on and magnify in his smooth manner. In the end none of his harping was consequential. Broader history took its course. He no doubt had a few minor wins along the way with his hurtful games.
After two years of knocking he took to being a super-bull earlier this year. Nothing Matad could do was wrong according to him.
Now he has taken a sp fall and magnified it into a possible share placing, or gawd knows what. I'll be standing by for an urbane and sophisticated response from him but the bottom line he is a very smart operator, utilising this bb and whatever else to sow seeds and manipulate the sp to his own end.
CS - you may be shocked to know that the fall over the past few days has most likely been caused by on-site delays to the drilling. Stuff that happens in any drill program.
The irony is, I've now opened another crack in the door for him to jam his foot in.
Below are extracts from the October, 1996 Far Eastern Economic Review. That comes just after SOCO discovered oil in the Tamsag Basin. One kilometer north of where MATD is about to commence drilling three wells this year in the same basin. SOCO subsequently sold their contracts to Petro China for about $100m and over the next 10 years the drilling proved the story correct.
"Black Gold".
Industry analysts now believe that Mongolian oil reserves are "much larger" than initial
estimates of 6 billion barrels of recoverable oil. "Giant" by industry
standards Tamsag field in which several Western corporations including
New-York based Soco have exploration rights is estimated to have between
500 million and 1 billion barrels of recoverable oil. And this oil is of
"top quality". It is much better than any oil yet found in China for
example. Soco is expected to start exporting "large quantities" of oil
this year.
What implications this could have on Mongolian economy? Let's start with
basics. The world price of oil is 20 dollars per barrel. Total oil from
Tamsag field alone is worth between 10 billion and 20 billion of US
dollars. Mongolia has only 2 million people and its GDP is 1 billion
dollars. Yes! Oil from Tamsag field is alone is more than TWENTY times
larger than entire GDP of Mongolia!
SOCO raised more than 200 millions dollars on London stock markets for
Mongolian project. I am not Ed Story and I don't have access to Soco's
business plans. However, it would be logical to assume that they plan to
make money and to do so within next five years.........200 million dollars
invested into Mongolia within next 5 years would mean 3.7 per cent
annual growth in GDP even if the rest of economy stays flat! Remember,
Mongolian GDP is only 1 billion dollars. Now, we did not even take into
account oil production! Let's assume that Tamsag yields 15 million
barrels of oil in the next 5 years(One of Soco's wells has exactly that
amount of oil). ........................And what about other discoveries in Tamsag,
what about Tsagaan Els, what about Zuun bayan, what about Nescor Energy,
Tsagaan Shonkhor and this newcomer Mantaur? Surely they too would start
production in the next five years (It is already proven that these fields
have oil). And what about the next 20 years?
Now we will talk about the rest of the economy. No one yet fully
realises the vast difference between Mongolia's economic potential and
present. ................................"
I echo Spainish's comments Mr P. Your enthusiasm and positiveness is a welcome additon to this board. You seem to do your homework as well.
Take no notice of your detractors and the Mr Negatives. The MATD story is as basically sound as you relate.
Someone mentioned the oil shale asetts in the conference call. Last mentioned in 2012 and if i remember correctly quoted at the time as 120m barrels. At surface. Mineable. Surely deserve to be listed as an asset at least.
All the wells on Block 20 were not dry:
https://irpages2.eqs.com/websites/petromatad/English/1100/news-tool---rns---eqs-group.html?iframe=true&article=4542692&company=
DT4 found oil but was moderate and not suitable for further testing (i.e. not likely to be commercial). It is also off the folly that was Davsan Tolgoi and closer to the proposed 2019 drilling.
Probably not enough to suspend operations, but will make life pretty uncomfortable for the drillers, and a reminder the clock is ticking. The Mongolian Weather Bureau is usually very reliable. WH1 could be described as being in the depressions and basins of the central aimags. :-
"Cold spell to hit the country starting from November 1
Ulaanbaatar The National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued cold weather warning across the country.
According to the NAMEM, snow and blizzard are expected in areas of Western aimags, in western parts of central aimag on November 1; in areas of western and central aimags on November 2; in eastern half of the country on November 3 and in areas of western aimags on November 4.
Wind will get stronger in areas of Western aimags and in northern parts of Central aimags on November 1; in most of the country on November 2; in gobi and steppe areas on November 3, reaching 16-18m/s. Dust storm will occur.
In the depression of Darkhad; in mountainous areas of Altai, Khangai, Khuvsgul and Khentei; in Khurenbelchir; in the head of Zavkhan river; in the basins of Ider, Tes, Tuul and Terelj rivers, the nighttime temperature will be ranging from -17 to -22 degrees Celsius whereas the daytime temperature will be -7 to -12 degrees Celsius."
No mix up. There are three prospects on XX. Gazelle, Red Deer and one still to be located (near 19). On slide 24 in late presentation Gazelle and the one tbd are going to be drilled this year and Red Deer in 2019.
The wells on XX are shallow. Typical 2000m. target depth is routinely reached in about 14-20 days on petro china's 19 in the same basin. Drilling out that way generally finished at the end of november for winter. No mobilisation time because they use petro china rigs. So they could start drilling in mid-october (40 days) and still get two wells completed before winter. So could sign contacts in late september and still do a program in 2018. No need to panic. and the ceos estimate was a estimate for end of July.
That sounds good spanish. You bring the tea. Milk tea I hope. I will bring the cameras and video. Perhaps we can live stream it on facebook?
I hope you have not triggered OJ with your Matad trust slogan. Just when he may have forgotten that annoying and boring habit.
Serious bit - 2010. Mongolia is free country and permits to go anywhere are not needed. You are welcome to come and see any part of our beutiful country freely any time.
Of course. There is an old Mongolian saying "to see it once is better than to hear it a thousand times". There is a few investors on the bb living in ulaanbaatar. Lots of mongolians and also foreigners. I have a horse and many relatives here. We can make the 600km journey to the drill site. So what do you want when we get there? Photos of the drill? Interviews with the drill foreman? Some microfilm of the maps in the geologists ger? Samples from the drilling? Video of the celebration party with all the drillers throwing their hard hats in the air?
As has been mentioned before, J Oyungerel is still on the board and will be a Director until the AGM when she has flagged her intention to resign. So she will still be subject to declaring her trades (one would hope promptly this time around)
Secondly, whilst drilling is proceeding, it is normal and regulatory for the company to be in a "closed period" where neither directors or executive and key management (at least) cannot buy, sell or trade in shares. No-one in MATD can trade at this time (including J Oyungerel).
Finally, even after she departs the board, if she trades, I think she still may be subject to "related party" clauses because of her relationship to the 29% shareholder Petrovis. Holders above 3% still need to declare trades and those of related parties? Not quite certain of that one, but it makes sense.
I'd ask our resident Swiss legal expert but his knowledge seems to get a bit hazy and subjective at times.