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Captain Sparrow continues with his vile games, I see. I had blocked him, just in case he popped his head up prior to his multitude of promises to desist on this Board. But it is hard to dodge the fact he has once again made an odious presence (multiple times), despite those promises, so I unblocked him to view his mischief.
Constantly on the backfoot when taken to task, he has offered a variety of excuses for his continual flogging of Petro Matad. Everything from "balancing the Board" through to "for my own amusement" and all points in between have been offered up by him as excuses for his behaviour. But most of us have him pegged.
All of his negative comments are not "facts" as he has stated, and challenged people to disprove. At best they are conjectures. "What-ifs". Anyone can play that game, Sparrow you Flog.
I'll match your "What if PM loses Block XX" with "What if COVID19 shuts down the North Sea". And your "What if the Government loses the election" with "What if one of Petro China's Chinese oilfields suffers a disaster that makes Mongolian oil more attractive".
It's easy to play his game. The game he thinks is so hilarious and amuses him so much on this Board. Parading his self-styled wizard intellect and bullying anyone who pushes back.
The so-called "facts" he presents are nothing but a series of conjectures that can be played with any company on any stockmarket.
His latest weak attempt has been well and truly called out by Bonum. Well done.
Petrovis is the largest oil distributor in Mongolia. It is one of the largest employers and taxpayers in Mongolia. It is a well-run and transparent western-style company that has superb community and commercial connections. It was the first Mongolian company to promote oil exploration in the country and the first Mongolian entity of any type to avhieve an international stock exchange listing. It has achieved all of that through multiple changes of political power in Mongolia in the past 25 years.
Sparrow's vain "What if there is a change of government" doesn't even pass the sniff test. It is just another of his "facts" that he presents for his own amusement and the misleading of potential investors.
Fancy having Captain Sparrow in the trenches with you? The stuff of nightmares. Betrayals, deceit, broken promises, abuse, lack of loyalty, back-stabbing and white-anting. Along with an impossibly smug attitude and an air of self-importance. And on top of all that, no sense of humor. As you went over the top you'd look beside and behind in vain for the good Captain. He would have broken another promise and either skulked off to cause mischief in the next trench over, or would be yelling "You are all doomed" from the safety of the trench.
Leave us in peace and go and join another company, Sparrow.
And there you have it over four posts. Buy case, sell case and a scatty indecisive swiss lawyer in between (who has spent 5 years telling us he is a serious investor and now admits it is all a gamble).
Jimthebrush and Captain Stanley have actually outlined the pluses and minuses pretty well. And CS is upfront for a change.
Hang in there Jimthebrush and bye bye Captain . Good luck in finding a more promising investment
I could nominate a few more serious pluses and minuses, but they would probably balance out.
A very interesting and pertinent piece in the Mongolian press: https://montsame.mn/en/read/215669 . Montsame is basically the government press outlet, so you are reading the government's views - or propaganda if you like. Full support of the local oil exploration industry can be deduced from the piece.
Well, "Peak Ojay" has been reached !!!!
In replying to an informative, positive and well balanced post by Dimvestor he admits he "is not a fortune teller" and then proceeds to make a series of predictions in his normal officious manner.
"Gold alone is a bad bet"
"I can't imagine that those issues could substantially weaken PM's situation. "
"I am convinced this will happen very soon"
"Gold is a great investment if the company turns out to be successful". As is any investment in any company in any sector.
Ojay is to be sincerely admired for his long-standing commitment to his PM dreams. Like many of us, he is a substantial "LTH" (as he likes to remind us). However his philosophizing about wicked AIM, his moans about sellers, and his relentless stamping on anybody who expresses doubts, and he identifies as traders gets a little tiresome at times.
Dimvestor is right. There are storm clouds around and PM is in a difficult position right now. Its share price is unreasonably low, limiting funding options. It has yet to secure an exploitation License for Heron, and it seems it has a few local political issues to resolve. GKhans comments about the share registry are spot-on. On top of this they will need to retain as much of Block XX as they can as it expires, and have similar issues out on Blocks IV and V.
In my view, he is also correct in assuming that things will improve, even though he provides Mike Buck as the only reason for his faith. But at least he provides some back-up to his prediction. He is not acting like a blind conductor with no music sheet, orchestrating a band on a wing and a prayer.
Despite recognizing the dark times we are in, I too have faith in Petro Matad's future in 2020 and also have faith in Buck’s technical ability. Now is not the time to articulate my research, knowledge and rationale but I can assure you it is not based on "fortune telling" nor an irrational desire to shut down naysayers.
Mr P - I am surprised at you getting a bit ratty with Spainish. You normally reflect your cheery nickname and you also seem a keen student of the company we all follow.
Spainish was merely pointing out some of the political vagaries of Mongolia, a subject in which he has many years of on-the-ground experience. His information tunnel is impeccable, as far as I know.
Serious investors in Petro Matad on this board would be well advised to take his information and add it to their own data banks, so as to get a better picture of the company
Your observations about the government's attitude to Petro Matad and oil do make a lot of sense, and to a certain degree I agree with your hypothesis. But I also add in Spainish's valuable intel, and devalue your theories to an extent, due to your lack of intimate local knowledge. The background facts he lays out are true.
The conclusions he draws from his information and knowledge of Mongolia are the result of his own thought processes and I can guarantee you he is no dummy or newbie to this game. I cannot see where he has labelled his conclusions as "fact".
If you followed the thread between us (The Big Debate) you would see he and I disagree on only one prognostication. He concludes a certain amount of government inaction over the next 6 months, and my guess is that there will be action. And we are both working off practically the same input into the database.
Funnily enough both his and your logic appeal to me, even though you are half a world apart. But even though I respect Spainish and his experience, I find my ultimate conclusion lines up with you, Mr P.
At least the debate has been a bit better than "the LTH vs day traders", and "5p by Friday" and "wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend" and "AIM is c....p" and the ultimate "dilutive placement just around the corner"
On a lighter note, it may finish up none of the three of us are right!
GKhan/Spainish
Good points all - but once again the Ivanhoe model beckons. They could not develop Oyu Tolgoi by themselves and eventually bought in Rio Tinto in a deal that benefited all, including the government & Ivanhoe shareholders. That happened after the full potential of OT was revealed by Ivanhoe and an awful lot of shareholder placements funds. The share price reached $21 during all of that period (from $1 at discovery) notwithstanding the major dilution entailed in raising that money. So much for Captain Stirling's boogy man arguments. I, for one would welcome a placement done properly, although I believe we have other ways to find development funds, and in all likelihood will do so.
GKhan - despite the low starting point there will be plenty of chances for shareholders to make multiples on their investment during a takeover or JV. It does all depend on management from here on, rather than geology as Spainish says. I wonder if Friedland would take us on as a pet project?
Spainish - You have been in Mongolia long enough to know that there will be a rush by government to get approvals done over the next 4 months. And done properly so that the next guy in the seat cannot undo them. The paralysis you correctly predict only sets in closer to the election, and afterwards when the new people find their seats and get working.
I can find no mention of oil in the definition of "strategic deposits" and hence the danger of a Government grab of 34%. In any event, Petro Matad hold the resource under a PSC, a different animal than a mineral license, and as such the govt already owns 50% of the oil production and the right to buy the other 50% at market price.
Those production terms, royalties and taxes etc are already contained in the PSC. The exploitation license is merely a piece of extra paper regulating the mechanics of drilling, extraction and production as well as covering environmental impacts.
Finally, it is not as if Petro Matad are the first to find oil in Mongolia. The (so far) much larger fields to the north have already been through the licensing and production processes, as has the smaller ones at Zuunbayan. Mongolia has accommodated petroleum exploitation licenses for over twenty years.
GKhan - your comparison with Ivanhoe and Robert Friedland and the discovery of Oyu Togoi is essentially correct. However it deserves the retelling of some of the detail and highlighting other similarities to Petro Matad and petroleum in Mongolia.
Ivanhoe were exploring on a limited budget in Mongolia for some years, with limited success before they gained Oyu Tolgoi licenses. Even then, they were down to the last two drillholes before the major discovery was made. In 2001, when they made that breakthrough, they had very little money left in their treasury. Some $40m at the end of 2000, with a couple of operating mines and other programmes around the world.
In 2001, the discovery year, they spent only $3.8m in Mongolia.
On the back of the discovery later in 2001, Ivanhoe raised $73m to further explore Oyu Tolgoi. This was done in many small placements over time, at about C$1 per share. They did not have $750m in the bank at the discovery time. Ivanhoe was far, far from being a major. They even called themselves "an exploration company, not a mining company".
But you are right - what they did have was a internationally successful manager/entrepreneur who had a stellar track record of value-adding for his shareholders and as a result many institutional and professional followers. Ivanhoe also had a solid share registry of major institutions who would follow Friedland into hell if necessary.
So the first part of the exploration story that is Ivanhoe does compare favorably with Petro Matad.
After years of trying, technical success has come to a small resource exploration company with comparatively little in the bank.
After that, yours and Spainish's observations are somewhat valid. For all of Mike Buck's admirable points, he is no Robert Friedland (few are). I believe that incremental development, over time, is possible the way they are going. They do have the backing of Mongolians and the Mongolian Government, something Friedland had to battle in addition to financing. But as you pointed out they do not have a solid share registry.
Little known fact - in 2007, Ivanhoe had by then spent US$1.2Bn exploring Oyu Tolgoi, through Friedland's supernatural money-drawing powers. At that same time, Petro China had spent the same amount developing their Block XIX fields (just north of Heron).
So Buck and the Board of Directors have the job ahead of them, one way or the other. But others have done it.
A final thought - One of Friedland's traits (outlined in the excellent book about him "The Big Sting"" was his delight in what he terms "commercial tension". He loved the game of takeovers, particularly when they turn competitive. Don't you think that a takeover battle for Petro Matad might just be what the doctor ordered? While we may never see the full value of Petro Matad materialize in current shareholders hands, a takeover battle could provide a major premium on today's prices.
Plus get Ojay and Captain Stirling out of our liv
"That's not a nasty undertone oilfated it's what I think is going to happen. " . . . . . Call it what you like, but it exists in your postings. Reasonable...reasonable.....reasonable....the nasty half-hidden hook . . reasonable...reasonable. Always the same.
Great job, Neeko. Ripped away the disguise far better than my efforts. He was once a ramper par excellence and he turned on a pence or two into a deramper.
Sparrow - if you don't think ""Highly dilutative fund raise" is a dire, emotive-charge phrasing of your so-called opinion, you are fooling no-one but yourself. It flies in the face of any evidence apart from the your own agenda-driven imagination.
No matter how you dress it up.
As I have said before, I have no issues with differing opinions and healthy debate. Even over-enthusiastic day traders. But your method of operation is something else. A wolf in sheep's clothing. Despite your desperate invitation I am not going to block you.
And there he is on full display. Like a fox strutting around in daylight, hoping that his prey is impressed by the red fur and bushy tail and won't notice the teeth and claws.
It never changes. An apparently well written and reasonable note about how smart and logical he is. But the message carried a nasty undertone inserted by him under the civil disguise. The first and second sentences in his second paragraph reveal his true agenda... scare the share price lower. "Highly dilutative fund raise" indeed.
His "not unreasonable stance" never contains anything of value to this board. Apart from a sense of wonder of his ego.
And all this despite the fox promising to hibernate over winter in his den. Don't expect him to molt in spring. He has had the same fur for years.
Now oil is being extracted by Chinese companies. One-fourth of our oil is extracted from production sharing contracts. In Article 7.1.6 of the Law on Petroleum, the Government also stated that "if the oil refineries are built in Mongolia, they shall enjoy the priority right of the contractor to purchase crude oil and cost oil at the market price." The contractor is obliged to supply its share of oil at market price to the domestic market. Officials from the relevant government believe that the resources and legal environment for supply of raw materials to oil refineries comprise.
Anyway, we have come to Mongolians on the road that is independent of petrol. Can not return .
As of November 2019, MNT 246 billion from the Development Bank of Mongolia will be financed by Sainshand, 17.5 km of heavy-duty road, 27 km long railway, 110 kW power line and substations and 150 ha of construction leveling and fencing. Also, 550 households in Sainshand are building a worker's camp. The spring will provide a 42 km long water supply pipeline. Its large industrial parks include technological facilities, large storage containers, transportation of crude oil and transmission facilities, and their own power plant.
Transport
At present, the immediate solution is how to transport crude oil from a distance of 550 km. The government has been divided among the options for construction of railways or pipelines.
Supporters of railroads, for instance, are planning to build a railroad in Mongolia, to build a new gateway to Russia, and to borrow hundreds of millions of dollars, so it is best to build a railroad to carry a variety of freight. Because of the support of the pipeline , it is best to think fast, reliable, and continuous supply. The cost is three times cheaper than the construction of the railway, the shorter duration of construction, and the most common and most popular way to transport a single product is the pipeline.
The Tamsag oil is relatively light (0.845 g / cm3), very low sulfur (0.11 percent), low oil acid (TAN: 0.052 mg / kg), thus reducing the cost of building material. However, the content of paraffin hydrocarbons is very high at 24 ° C, so the tanker is heated by railway; pipes should be continuous heating.
At the same time, there is a high cost of loading and unloading 80 wagons. There are companies willing to hire, hire, and hand over their pipelines. When installing pipes, the DEIA estimates that 350 million dollars will be required, with a term of 2-3 years; while the railway is about $ 660 million, and the duration of the construction is uncertain. Cost of transport costs 1 ton of pipe 7 USD; and the railway will double. The plant is expected to begin production in November 2024, and the government plans to rush to this option after six months.
Reserve
The next question that the public is asking is the oil reserves to meet the needs of this plant. Only two exploration sites (Toson Uvix XIX, Tamsag XXI of Dornod aimag) In 2010, 332.6 million tonnes of reserves, of which 43.2 million tonnes of proven reserves were used, was registered in the Mineral Resources Complex. Its 8.2 million tonnes are still being mined, but there is plenty of opportunity to increase reserves. By the end of the month Matad has discovered oil reserves in the Block XX and predicted 25 million tonnes of reserves. Boreholes drilled in many other areas have oils. Oil exploration needs to be expanded, but energy and labor are inadequate, and face resistance from local governments and citizens.
The following has been written by respected Mongolian commentator D Jargalsaikhan and posted by his research think tank, the Defacto Institute. It is a valuable insight into how Mongolians, including the government think about Petro Matad and petroleum development in their country. I hope it provides background and comfort to you investors on this board. It was published in Mongolian and this is a Google translate, but it appears acceptable. He has made a couple of technical errors including Matds resource as 25m tonnes where it is at this stage 25m barrels. Maybe he knows something we don't :-) . It will take three posts - sorry
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PATH OF INDEPENDENCE
DECEMBER 2, 2019
D.JARGALSAIKHAN
Our country has been dependent on Russia for fuel from generation to generation. As the country progresses, more and more cars and equipment will now burn about $ 1.5 billion or one-quarter of our currency revenues. There was no choice but to pay for the price of the Russians, and in 2015 the Singaporean market price negotiations did not make any difference. The five-year deal will be over, and will be discussed next month . The main thing is that we sell fuel in dollars and sell it in MNT, so we can change prices, weaken the foreign trade balance, increase consumer prices, and inflate.
Mongolians have talked about how to build fuel and independence, many years after the discovery of oil in Dornod. In May 2015, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Mongolia. India has granted a $ 1 billion soft loan for the economic development of Mongolia. The Government of Mongolia has decided to build the oil refinery in February 2017.
Consuming of fuels and other conditions, the plant was constructed in 18 km north of Sainshand, Dornogobi, in Altankhuyag soum. The plant will produce 43 tons of liquefied natural gas, gasoline 340, diesel fuel 824, 80 fuel oil and 47,000 tons of fuel, or 1.35 million tons of coal, to meet the current needs of Mongolia. Crude oil will be extracted from Toson Uul XIX and Tamsag XXI from Dornod aimag.
Project progress today
The State-owned Petroleum Refinery (DMP ) was established in April 2017 ( www.mongolrefinery.mn ). In August, a consultant was awarded as an Advisor to "Engineers India Limited" ( www.engineersindia.com ), a multi-year Indian expertise in the field of detailed technical feasibility study . In addition, the Italian company "Kinetic Technologies" was established to provide external auditors. In November 2018, a detailed feasibility study was completed and was approved by the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy of the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy. Started engineering in May 2019.
Good Lord – I turn away for a few days and when I come back, Jack Sparrow has been back and what’s more up to his usual tricks. I thought he had promised to sail his pirate ship elsewhere? Why, oh why? It cannot be his usual de-ramping trickery, unless he is that desperate to want to try to squeeze a few miserable points of a p out of the depressed share price.
But why? I suspect he possesses a narcissistic personality disorder. If you look it up on Google you will find the nine traits that fit his modus operandi exactly.
Dozzawba comes close, calling his posts sly and nasty. But JAdams nails it when he describes his posts as slanted and selective. His reply was masterful and complete and Jack didn’t like it one bit. Providentially, it seems people are waking up to him.
Bleating about only posting “an accurate summary of the CEO's last investor presentation” is typical. His so called accurate summary was called out by JAdams for what it was. One-sided and incomplete.
It was incomplete to the point of embarrassment, Jack (I’ve cashiered you). You cherry picked to support your narrative and predictions. As you always do.
Then he pens clever protests to those who call him out up or do not agree with his conclusions (dear old OJ got a mouthful).
Petro Matad face a lot of uncertainty at the moment. Mike Buck has many challenges to face, not the least of which are those pointed out by GKhan, Manro and Spanish. Luckily it now has a sound asset base with which to move forward. As a serious shareholder I wish him and his Board well and I will not spend time trying to double guess and either scare or reassure people as they go about their task.
One bright spot is that I am sure they get comic relief during this busy time when they read your predictive rubbish, Jack.
What a ridiculous deduction, Sparrow. It just so happens that my portfolio contains stocks from exchanges around the world. Matad is the only one on AIM. I am active on shareholder forums like Hot Copper in Australia and Stockhouse in Canada.
Moreover, I have had enough real world experience to recognise charlatans when i see them. The idiotic ones operating out of mum's basement are not worth addressing. But clever manipulators such as you need to be called out.
......... You really are a strange one. You quote : “the odds are” and other theories about a placement and then quote it as being a “factual representation of the current situation”.
Your “investment” strategy is laughable if you apply an overall average to your predicted behaviour of an individual company. And yes, I do think otherwise.
What I do think is that you are cherry picking and theorising for your own vanity and your own fiscal advantage.
Beside which, the group you have picked to draw your certainty from are explorers, even though you call them “small cap oilers”. Petro Matad now has a solid 25 million barrel (plus) discovery it 100% owns and money in the bank. A different story altogether.
The CEO laid out many different options for funding and development going forward in yesterday’s shareholders meeting. Some of them sensible and solid and some thinking outside the box. I won’t list them here, but he specifically excluded a placement, except “perhaps a very small one”.
For what it is worth I don’t think every funding strategy he outlined is a solid gold possibility, but I would hold hope for most of them. A couple were unique and far-sighted. He and the Board are obviously exploring all possibilities.
You choose to gnaw away at a placement as the only option. But “Hey Hoe” – each to their own as you are wont to say.
And your PS? Whose/what feedback from the meeting are you seeking? Mine? There was plenty on this board as it occurred and immediately afterward yesterday. Or are you seeking third party feedback?
Unfortunately, the market seems to have given us all some feedback this morning! Good and bad news for you and your ilk. Good – you may get your targeted de-ramped price and bad, even less likely for your scurrilous prediction of a placement.
You guys are like whack-a-mole. Here comes ToblerRone. GKhan has it right. Beware.
CS 11 Nov. “A fund raise is far more likely and for what it's worth I think the better route to go.”
After a week of spouting negative sentiments and careening around the LSE Ocean spouting smoke and flashpowder Captain Sparrow now sits in his alone in his lifeboat watching his ship “The Deramper” sinking from the well-aimed shots from Petro Matad, moaning “When there's nothing to say there's nothing to say”.
He will be back, as soon as he finds an angle to gnaw at. And he will gnaw at it very subtly and cleverly as always, magnifying an imagined flaw in Petro Matad’s progress or methods.
Or perhaps he will buy, and then we can be treated to his positive analysis of the company and its prospects. That will be worthwhile as he can be a seriously good analyst when he is not flying the Jolly Roger.
You do not need a deep knowledge of Mongolian politics and commerce to make obvious connections between The Prime Minister’s timely visit to Petro China’s blocks and the Mongolian government’s interest in Petro Matad’s neighbouring discovery.
He probably visited Heron as well, it being only 5kms from the Petro China facilities.
At the very least it shows the government’s active interest in petroleum resources and eagerness to facilitate future production.
From today’s press in Mongolia:
“Prime Minister visits oil field of "Petro China Daqing Tamsag "Tamsag"
Prime Minister of Mongolia U Khurelsukh got acquainted with the operation of oil extraction of “Petro China Daqing Tamsag” company from fields 19 and 21
“Petro China Daqing Tamsag” company has been producing 7 5 million tons of oil since the Production Sharing Agreement was signed in 2005 The oil extracted from the field 19 is exported through Bichigt port of Sukhbaatar aimag, while the oil extracted from the field 21 is exported through Bayankhoshuu port
2015 was the peak year of oil extraction, reaching 1 million tons, however the extraction amount is decreasing in recent years with annual average extraction of 800 000 tons, reported the company Still, the company officials said that they can supply oil to the refinery to be built by increasing the oil extraction”
With an election due next year, the Government needs economic good news and development. IMHO, you would not be too far wrong in assuming the Government is being a facilitator and expediter.
Captain Sparrow: As usual you cherry-picked a singular point in a message (be it an RNS or other's messages) and beat it to death for your own ends. While dressing up the message with platitudes and nice sounding half-truths.
An investor informs himself about a company's worth and it general future and then buys its shares. Usually with a pre-determined timeline for the investment to mature or pay dividends. He becomes a shareholder in the company because he believes in its future and its management. He doesn't ride management decisions on a daily and nit-picking manner, speculate on whats and ifs, and boast how clever he is.
Good people (investors) here have bought MATD a decade ago, believing in Mongolia, the future of oil exploration there and the property MATD has. The big picture stuff. They have had some heady times and also endured some vicissitudes. And it looks like their big-picture investment decisions may be about to realised over the next few years.
"5 minutes thinking by 2pm" is the last way a serious investor would make decisions.
Traders on the other hand do that. In fact you are a slow poke.
Captain Sparrow buys Waitrose shares then rides every management decision, store opening or closing, the sale price of the crackers or the tone of the TV ads.. And publishes as widely as he can in the hope of influencing the share price and his getaway.
An investor sees the value and future in Waitrose and then trusts the management to deliver his calculated capital gains or dividends over his time limit and then gets on with life.
There is a place for traders of course - as I have said. Especially on oil stocks on AIM. But to shamelessly ply your nefarious trade on a bb is odious.
Boasting (or lying) about your "fabulous" record of trading after the event is in very bad taste, old chap. And that is all you do. You could at least nominate your proposed actions before time.
And finally - your boast of being 100% right in your preachings on MATD is very far from the truth. As I say, you are clever enough, but you have been diametrically wrong (or irrelevant) quite a few times in the past two years. Hence me and others calling you out.
If you believe in MATD as you say, be an investor and become an LTH. Believe in the country and the company and put the share certificate in the bottom drawer for your kid's education. But you won't.
No matter how much you froth at the mouth and sputter on about being a trader, you deliberately missed the main point. People want trustworthy and steady types in the trenches with them.
(Quote from Disney: Captain Jack Sparrow is the irreverent trickster of the Caribbean. A captain of equally dubious morality and sobriety, a master of self-promotion and self interest, he ?ghts a constant and losing battle with his own best tendencies