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Ufufuo, take it as a fact that processing and interpreting a survey (different from acquisition) of the scale being acquired here and in a complex channel sand system, as is the geology here, will take many months. Even though we would all wish it be otherwise; It wont be done by Christmas. Any geophysicist or seismic contractor will tell you this.
Also take it as a fact that the rig will not be moved to location until the seismic interpretation has been done.
You are correct that long lead items will be ordered this year; they by definition need ordering a long time before drilling and usually a year before.
Ufufuo, I think you know this is not true
The 3D seismic has yet to start and when its complete will take 4-6 months to process and interpret.
The rig will only be mobilized once this has completed.
The company has advised Q3 2022 from drilling (and this assumes that the seismic does start on schedule).
shareholders are all delighted to see things moving again in Tanzania, but lets please keep the commentary real.
I think what's going on here is we have a new CEO (and new to public markets) on his first trip to London for 18 months chatting too much about all sorts of deals without being clear that none of these discussions are going to require funding until the Buffalo project is well on its way and the S/P at an aspiration level (...take a leaf out of the Kistos book here...).
Its obvious to those who know this game that nothing is going to happen on any deal in advance of buffalo drilling success, but the CEO is NOT reiterating this and people are being shaken out of their positions in response.
Patience required...
Probability of three blanks is 0.45x0.59x0.75=19.9%. Chance of success 80.1%
However, track record in Norway is averaging a lot higher than industry standard calculations; so with the LBE team handpicking prospects one might expect even higher...
Paul, thanks for tracking this.
If this is the case, investors just got an added bonus. 3 wells drilling around the same time with a 55%, 41% and Helge's personal favourite 25% COS...on these figures there should be at least 1 discovery here. On the Norwegian track record of 68% success, it would be hard to not expect campaign opening success. It also makes it hard for the short term traders who may have thought they could trade in/out between wells...
Trades all buys today...
Just found a recently started Telegram Group for LBE:
t.me/longboatenergy
I'm sure that's right Phoebus; although I suspect there is a bit more too it otherwise Asher wouldn't have done his fund raise before shareholder approval
The deal is binding subject to "a financing contingency requiring Beluga's shareholders' approval". So the fat lady hasn't sung yet, but does anyone have some colour on what this may refer to...?
Interesting chart on page 5 of the presentation link below
Shows how the UK domestic gas is one of the lowest ranking in terms of emission intensity and, by inference, global ranking of CO2/boe
These are the metrics that Shell will be using and shows why they are drilling Pensacola
Its a shame DELT dont know how to market and gets these points across...
https://longboatenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Longboat-Investor-Presentation-June-2021.pdf
Has anyone actually found any reference to oil test data from the Lower Cruse that supports calling this a commercial discovery? Has anyone actually seen petrophysical results (porosity and oil saturation) for the Lower Cruse?
The middle Cruse appears to flow water.
I estimate TULLOW needs to generate c. $775M (post recent additional capex deferrals) in FCF to avoid a debt for equity swap in April 2022 (which would wipe out the Equity holders). With $500M realised in a sale of Uganda, the FCF shortfall to avoid the debt for equity swap is now reduced to c. $275M. Therefore, this deal solves half the problem.
PMO runs a very tight ship and does all the technical work internally.
Look to ASX and yesterdays buys for the bull signals
Oil prices are surging by over 10% on the day, trading above $23. US President Donald Trump has told CNBC that he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman. He said that they agreed to an oil production cut of 10 million barrels that could be expanded to 15 million.
Three days into the logging now and no RNS confirming the negative outcome. This is bullish. No unusual large selling. This is also bullish. By now 88E/PMO will be gathering the first of specialised data to deepen their understanding of a logged oil discovery to determine an optimum testing and fraccing program. They will then do a check trip to maintain the hole condition and then run the final specialist logs. Depending upon when they actually started, announcement could be Monday (if not Tuesday).
Not a home run yet, but signs are bullish.
This is a good question. The RNS was based upon analysis of Hydrocarbon shows and LWD (GR-Resistivity) data. Given the nearby Malguk-1 well data, 88E/PMO would have been able to make a good estimate of oil saturation range in the different horizons on the basis of shows and Resistivity level - for example 10 Ohmm in the presence of good shows as seen in Malguk-1 is known to have good oil saturations for a porosity of 17%+. Obviously they need the porosity log to be sure and this will likely have been in the first combo logging run. My guess is that they already have the results of this logging run and if the porosity was deemed non-commercial, 88E/PMO would have stopped further logging and announced this. So; the more logging time spent the more certain we can be of good results and 7 days of logging is only what an operator would do in the case of good results to fine tune the flow test and fraccing program.
GGG - thanks for the reply. Historical WTI differentials are starting to dislocate due to the current market strains. Edmonton mixed sweet traded at USD 11/bbl yesterday. Toscana's blend is at the heavy end of the Edmonton Par mixes and will be at a further discount to the light Edmonton Par blend.
If I3E had been totally upfront about this (there is not even a footnote in the presentation) and made their business case of buying cheap with a plan to mitigate further oil price weakness, we wouldnt be left wondering and speculating. As you say, they may be able to shut-in wells and minimal cost, but there is also a fixed operating and G&A cost that will dominate at the low levels of production they have.
I think the reason this deal is not being well received is that I3E is either being dishonest or have perhaps overlooked the recent price development of the West Canadian Select crude that they report is their marker crude. In the VOX interview today (ref 20mins into ****************************/articles/dev-clever-holdings-xpediator-i3-energy-and-glen-goodman-3a88666/), I3E state that they are breaking even at the current $20/bbl. However, West Canadian Select price collapsed a week ago and is now trading at $4.7/bbl). They have bought was is presently a financial liability.
The 1P type curve for a field like this is an initial steep hyperbolic for 1 month and then 20% p/a decline. The reserves auditor is using something like this given their capex and reserves, so again "not an issue".
Rough 2020 numbers: 10kbopd start declines to 8kbopd by year end. 4 new horizontals well initial 6kboe/d with 50% 1 month decline and average half year decline at 20% pa adds a total of 11kbopd; giving a grand total of 19kbopd at year end In line with PTAL guidance for year end. Have to deliver though.
Lots of talk on decline curves & field recovery factors (RF). The analogue fields in the area with a similar API & mobility ratio have RF ~24%. Current 1P & 2P RFs being used are 10% & 13.6%; so lots of NAV upside from here. The 1P NAV is ~50p/sh!
Today's announcements confirms the field is on track; with oil in place increases and the reserves auditor nudging up the recovery factor with very little production history to date.