Member Info for OilAnalyst

The 15k trades were sells but the 2x 50k trades at 2pm were buys.

Pershing just hold shares for others, so the TR1 (presently undisclosed) holds their shares with Pershing nominees.

BGF similarly holds its shares in EOG through Pershing.

Serif, that makes no sense.

The trading range over the last week is 10-15%.

The upside is 2-3x for a re-rate on Wressle.

A TR1 can only sell down or increase by 9.5mln shares before notificaton.

If they wanted to average down a bit; theyve done it.

There are no disclosed Shorts for EOG so no-ones making on the downs.

This is traders making 10% margins until retail finally gets washed out/exhausted.

Then it will bounce.

BGF has sold less than 9.5mln shares since the 5th Sep, otherwise they would have had to notify.

EOG has traded 600mln shares since then!

The selling is retail.

https://www.***************************/helium-one-global-committed-to-delivering-a-successful-phase-ii-drilling-campaign-at-tai-video/4121082790

is he in the Telegram group?
(I dont normally use LSE)

Thanks T, I'm a shareholder so am interested in joining the group

Is there a link for these "Bag Notes" shareholder call with CB?

I agree Shareinvest and am really excited by this update.
The well plan was to set 9 5/8" casing in the top of the Ecucha; which is a clear seismic marker.
In other words, CVN now know how far to the top Elang (which is also clear on seismic).
The planned depth for the 9 5/8" was 2800m and this update reports that its been set at 2700m; some 100m high.
There is nothing in the RNS that suggests a change of plan; on the contrary LP states "we remain on prognosis.. an encouraging indication that the geophysical interpretation is as we predicted."
Given this, I cant see any other conclusion that the Ecucha has come in high; which would imply that the Elang will also be high, as the Ecucha is an unconformity and underneath this we expect the geology to have similar thickness (in the absence of faults of course).
We could be at the top end of the oil column prognosis here of over 100m...
EnergyGeo: you are closer to all this than me - I'd love your read of this.

Energygeo, at what depth is the relevant unconformity at Buffalo? In other words, at what depth does it start to be possible to observe that the overburden at buffalo-10 is coming in high, as prognosed?

Ufufuo, take it as a fact that processing and interpreting a survey (different from acquisition) of the scale being acquired here and in a complex channel sand system, as is the geology here, will take many months. Even though we would all wish it be otherwise; It wont be done by Christmas. Any geophysicist or seismic contractor will tell you this.

Also take it as a fact that the rig will not be moved to location until the seismic interpretation has been done.

You are correct that long lead items will be ordered this year; they by definition need ordering a long time before drilling and usually a year before.

Ufufuo, I think you know this is not true

The 3D seismic has yet to start and when its complete will take 4-6 months to process and interpret.

The rig will only be mobilized once this has completed.

The company has advised Q3 2022 from drilling (and this assumes that the seismic does start on schedule).

shareholders are all delighted to see things moving again in Tanzania, but lets please keep the commentary real.

I think what's going on here is we have a new CEO (and new to public markets) on his first trip to London for 18 months chatting too much about all sorts of deals without being clear that none of these discussions are going to require funding until the Buffalo project is well on its way and the S/P at an aspiration level (...take a leaf out of the Kistos book here...).

Its obvious to those who know this game that nothing is going to happen on any deal in advance of buffalo drilling success, but the CEO is NOT reiterating this and people are being shaken out of their positions in response.

Patience required...

Probability of three blanks is 0.45x0.59x0.75=19.9%. Chance of success 80.1%

However, track record in Norway is averaging a lot higher than industry standard calculations; so with the LBE team handpicking prospects one might expect even higher...

Paul, thanks for tracking this.

If this is the case, investors just got an added bonus. 3 wells drilling around the same time with a 55%, 41% and Helge's personal favourite 25% COS...on these figures there should be at least 1 discovery here. On the Norwegian track record of 68% success, it would be hard to not expect campaign opening success. It also makes it hard for the short term traders who may have thought they could trade in/out between wells...

Trades all buys today...

Just found a recently started Telegram Group for LBE:
t.me/longboatenergy

I'm sure that's right Phoebus; although I suspect there is a bit more too it otherwise Asher wouldn't have done his fund raise before shareholder approval

The deal is binding subject to "a financing contingency requiring Beluga's shareholders' approval". So the fat lady hasn't sung yet, but does anyone have some colour on what this may refer to...?

Interesting chart on page 5 of the presentation link below
Shows how the UK domestic gas is one of the lowest ranking in terms of emission intensity and, by inference, global ranking of CO2/boe
These are the metrics that Shell will be using and shows why they are drilling Pensacola
Its a shame DELT dont know how to market and gets these points across...
https://longboatenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Longboat-Investor-Presentation-June-2021.pdf