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Tapis oil is now very similar to Brent, so I'd say very small or no premium from PenMal's oil. Last premiums for Montara and Stag have been ~$4.5/bbl and ~US$14/bbl, respectively. In APAC, the premium over Brent of low-sulphur oil has widened due to the increase in miles per ton casused by the re-route of vessel from the Houthis' attacks
All my assumptions are conservatives, I don't feel particularly optimistic right now. For Akatara I used the price disclosed by the company, the first-gas timing is unknown though. The calculation of the ARO liabilities is already discounted and provided by the company in the annual and interim reports, it is not my calculation. I always use ARO liabilities as part of the EV in upstream companies. It is an amount that is due in the future, like a bond that is paid in full at maturity. It can be delayed but it won't go away.
Please, consider my estimations as purely speculative. As I said in the post, I struggled to match my estimations with the guidance, because it seems they are underpromising, but there is no way the company will confirm this. Unless, the maitenance shut-ins during this year are more frequent (similar to what will happen to Harbour this year) than any other year.
Today I added to the second part my speculation about the plans of the company for PenMal. The addition of the PM428 block to PM323 and PM329 is a smart move. If Jadestone manages to secure MBR+'s Puteri (former PNLP licence owned 100% by Jadestone) and MBR2024's Korbu cluster (there is NO confirmation by the company that it intends to submit an application for this field, take it with a large pinch of salt), the strategy will be simply genius!
I have written 2 posts about Jadestone that explain why its Mcap is so low. The ARO liabilities are the main component of the company's Enterprise Value: https://open.substack.com/pub/zerogcos/p/a-troubled-south-east-oil-company?r=70r5i&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcome=true
In case you are interested, we have written a post in out substack about JSE. This first post is about Blakeley, main shareholders and assets. 2024 can be a great year for the company if the troubled Montara recovers it's previous production over 7,500 bopd. The addition of Akatara and increased production from PenMal and NWS can complete the turnover.
https://open.substack.com/pub/zerogcos/p/a-troubled-apac-oil-and-gas-company?r=70r5i&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcome=true
PUTUP is right, but I decided to "keep it simple" and use the WI, which is what most people use and understand, despite being operated by the JV with MOL. It is a simplification to avoid making it even more dense. I hope you liked it.
Hi NQM, the rumours I received come from the last Pareto event, in case you want to reduce the scope a bit. Again, it is not confirmed and they are speculations at this moment. I'm sure both Var and Kistos are working to get the project back on track. Nevertheless, the project has suffered many delays until now; the announcement of another delay should not surprise anyone after the recent (and hopefully last) announced CAPEX increase.
OilMan is correct, no less than 6 months is what I heard, so 12 months could be expected. Also, Var and Kistos Norge have very limited communication between them, and Kistos is usually left unaware of the progress and delays. There are people regularly visiting the yard with better information than Kistos receives from Var.