Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
That’s why we now have no one on the H1 board
Our percentage was always going to be reduced after the IPO but I was expecting to around 10%!!
Steve...that’s a round about way the question I was asking earlier. We own over 10% of the company but now it seems, have no representative on the board. It was originally Dan Maling and then Tom Reynolds.
“ Ticker showing as pre IPO” ... imminent! it’s been pre IPO for over a year probably 2 years now, from when they obtained a $2m dollar investment to get them to IPO.
RNS in May last year.
Commenting on the update, Solo's Executive Chairman Alastair Ferguson said:
"We are pleased to see such a high calibre appointment at Helium One and think this reflects the high level of potential associated with this exciting growth company. Through our Board representation on Helium One, with Tom Reynolds acting as a Non-executive Director, we will continue to maintain close dialogue with Ian and his team, and offer our technical and commercial counsel as required, as we seek to enhance the value of our investment in the company."
Just noticed that Tom Reynolds is not a member of the BoD at H1 (from their updated website)
Anyone know when he left and any significance?
Comparing AEX £35m MC vs SCIR £20m MC.
Looks like death by PowerPoint at 11am
“ The maximum this 25% is worth is $20 Million as the 50% stake sold by AEX was $40 Million.”
Why the maximum? Absolute rubbish. The $20m per 25% is purely a guide price based on AEX (30% Zubs owned) accepting an off by the Zubs.
Remember be realistic.
Sorry guys but I think a zero was missing of my calculator therefore:
SCIR 25% is worth approx $570m on current reserves.
Below are my estimates for a value of the gas in ground. Flow rates and annual income could also be used to show value, or a combination of both.
Hopefully my Sunday morn calcs are correct.
Currently 25% of 2 TCF GIIP and 756 BCF 2C with every appraisal drill increasing the resource/reserves.
The value at the wellhead is about $3.00 per million BTU, which for 1,000 BTU gas is the same as $3.00 per thousand cubic feet. One TCF would therefore be worth $3 billion at the wellhead.
SCIR 25% is worth approx $57m on current reserves. After CH-1 I would expect the value to double. After CH-2, CH-3, etc is anyone’s guest. Could be over $500m in the life of the project.
Any other valuations welcome!
Apart from an update on the H1 IPO, all I want to hear is that they have had an offer for $30m+ for all of Ruvuma but they rejected it. IE some stake in ground so we know it’s true current value to potential buyers. If all we get tomorrow is purely future strategy (waffle words) then I’m afraid the SP will drift. Please BOD tell us how much you think Ruvuma is worth ( from negotiations with potential buyers) and as a bonus what it could potentially be worth after CH-1 results, CPR and 25 year license, if you plan to go down this route.
The only spanner in the works as I see it, is if APT as the new operator decide to complete 3D seismic and analyse data prior to drilling CH-1, in order to ensure the optimal spud location. I would, if confident I would get a further license extension.
Buckler...I’m quite aware of that fact and purely posting events that have happened, not any future SP predictions. That said, if the Potential gas play from seismic plots of CH-1 are anything to go by, we could be in for a similar ride!
So just prior to NT-2 results the SP was around 3p. On RNS of the results which was a gas payload of approx. 10x NT-1, the SP peaked over the coming weeks to 7p. Was Tiptop a main contributor to this, I don’t know. It then dropped back to around 5p due to poor flow rate results and held for a while in anticipation of NT-3. So most of the newbie investors at the time, including myself naively held for NT-3 which never happened. FOMO! And a lot have averaged down since. Now IMO these newbie investors (medium term investors now) are most likely to get out on the CH-1 spike, BUT IMO there will be a new set of investors that see 50+% rise on LSE due to CH-1 results and mostly stick around for CH-2, CH-3 etc, due to FOMO, having not endured the last 3 years of being an Aminex investor.
IMO the AEX deal in no way reflects the true value of our 25%. The deal was so biased in favour of the Zubs because of their 30% ownership of AEX.
The gas plant is relatively close, and NT-2 will flow at 50+ mmcf/d once reworked so together with NT-1 (20) and CH-1 probably 50+, they should be able to get approval for production from these 3 well alone. So anything between $10m to $15m investment from SCIR (or buyer) would get us to production. Do not be fooled by $140m investment total. Not required. We did the numbers a couple of years ago.
IMO a full 25% sale will be in access of $40m which would still give a payback in less than 5 years.