RE: OPEC+ negotiations9 Apr 2020 22:26
... The impact of supply cuts on pricing also depends greatly on the baseline production level used as a starting point, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) analysts said Thursday, since OPEC-plus has recently threatened to add up to around 4 million b/d of supply from February levels.
The Saudis already have ramped up production by about 2.3 million b/d since February to more than 12 million b/d currently, and the United Arab Emirates “has also increased output notably,” the TPH team said.
Therefore, if April is the starting point, about 4 million b/d would have to be subtracted from the headline supply cut to gauge the true impact of curtailment, analysts said.
“Overall, we need to see a true 10-15 million b/d cut for at least three-to-four months for the market to respond positively for a longer period of time” versus a short-term spike, the TPH team said, adding, “until then this continues to be a demand-driven issue with inventories continuing to build meaningfully in the coming months.” ...
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/121620-expected-opec-plus-curtailment-said-good-first-step-but-not-enough-to-balance-oil-market