Member Info for ocelot

From UKOG's home page:

... Our portfolio, notably Basur-Resan in Turkey and Loxley in the UK, has the potential to generate significant returns for the Company and its shareholders.

Given the information provided by the company to date re Loxley and the very substantial rise in the price of natural gas since most of this information was provided, 2 + 2 = a potential company-maker, imho.

Brockham:
Angus's 40 bopd share.
Prices prevailing now: $113.03; 1.2571
40 x 113.03/1.2571 =- £3,597 per day, £25,179 per week, £107,910 per 30-day month.

Think the potential is there for the impact to be bigger than that, HH1AN2.

An oil crisis hits the economy like a big wave breaking on the beach: The impact is immediate and dramatic as the crest plunges onto the shore. An electricity crisis is another kind of shock: Akin to a rising tide, it is slow but relentless and then, surprise, you are overwhelmed.

The difference explains why policymakers and investors focus on oil and tend to ignore electricity. That’s a big mistake because another big predicament over electricity prices is coming, not unlike the one Europe weathered late last year.

Almost unnoticed, regional forward electricity contracts for late 2022 and, especially, for 2023 have risen significantly over the last few weeks, heralding further utility bill hikes. In some cases, forward contracts have set record highs, having surged about 40% over the last two months ...

The war in Ukraine, which has lifted natural gas and coal prices, is the main driver of this crisis. It’s also exacerbated by low nuclear power production in France: State-owned Electricite de France SA recently cut its 2022 nuclear output guidance to less than 300 terawatts hour, down more than 30% from what it produced a decade ago ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-23/electricity-prices-are-going-to-be-overwhelming-for-late-2022-and-all-of-2023?cmpid=BBD052322_CEU&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=220523&utm_campaign=closeeurope&sref=Em01M8Hr

Extract from SS's speech to SCC's planning committee of 27/11/20:

... As the second largest gas accumulation drilled and tested in the UK onshore, Loxley’s potential peak
gas supply would have an energy equivalent to power around 200,000 homes per year and provide
up to £30 million/year in gas sales to hydrogen manufacture and carbon capture plants, ...
----------------
Think it is relatively conservative to assume natural gas prices have multiplied 2.5 times since this speech was given.

Hear, hear!

If the market gets behind a company and its management, it can contribute very substantially to the achievement of those predictions.

A couple of members of the family also owned some stock as individuals so maybe they have been following GP (Jersey) Limited out.
Primed for a healthy bounce once all done.

GP (Jersey) Limited's disposal declaration can always be mirrored, in part, by a buy declaration: let's wait and see.

Yes, Yanis, the overhang has gone.

So we have the identity of the seller, GP (Jersey) Limited, who are completely out.

Note: SS's 2 speeches to Surrey CC's planning committee of 29/06/20 and 27/11/20 are on the website under RNS & News, Other News.

Extracts from SS's speech to SCC's planning committee of 29/06/20:

... Should we prove commerciality, and we would know this within months, not years, then we believe
that this resource could potentially deliver, via hydrogen from reformulated natural gas, or simply via
transitional natural gas, the energy equivalent to heat around 100,000 households per year or to power
around 200,000 households per year with electricity. A potentially material project ...

Some might still argue we don’t need indigenous gas; indeed, CCCs projected 2050 gas demand has a
worryingly large 86% import dependency upon distant places, most of which have far less stringent
environmental and HSE compliance regimes than ours. That will cost Britain about £1 billion/year over
30 years.

Other than the obvious energy security and supply chain control issues, the main problems with long
distance imports is that their greenhouse gas footprints are markedly higher than indigenous gas,
which by nature is closer to the user, plus they make little contribution to UK GDP. From a net zero or
balance of payments perspective imports are not good ...

There is one further material consideration unique to Loxley; it is one of the few identified
developments that, in the success case, and with your support, can deliver these outcomes in the
timeframe required to make a real difference when the UK and Surrey needs it most ...

https://www.ukogplc.com/ul/SS%20Loxley%20Speech.pdf

Extract from SS's speech to SCC's planning committee of 27/11/20:

... As the second largest gas accumulation drilled and tested in the UK onshore, Loxley’s potential peak
gas supply would have an energy equivalent to power around 200,000 homes per year and provide
up to £30 million/year in gas sales to hydrogen manufacture and carbon capture plants, all of which
are likely to be situated in key industrial hubs, well outside of the Loxley rural area. Loxley could thus
be a materially significant future contributor to the local and Surrey-wide revenue base and
economy ...

https://www.ukogplc.com/ul/5fc1343a6ecea_SS_Loxley_speech_to_Surrey_CC_271120.pdf

Extract from the RNS of 21/09/20, Volumetric study confirms significant gas resource:

... Reported high case net PEDL234 GIIP and estimated high case recoverable resources are 76 bcf and 54 bcf, respectively.

As shown in Tables 1 and 2 below, approximately 78% of the overall Loxley gas accumulation's gross mean GIIP and recoverable gas resource of 63 bcf and 44 bcf respectively, are interpreted to lie within the Company's PEDL234 acreage.

In terms of recoverable gas resources, the calculated figures places Loxley as one of the largest gas accumulations discovered and flow tested in the UK onshore. If proven by future production, the calculated gross mean recoverable resources would place Loxley second after the Saltfleetby gas field, the UK onshore's largest gas field to date, which produced approximately 73 bcf.

These results further underline the Company's view that the 48 km(2) Loxley geological structure contains materially significant gas volumes, which in a success case of around 4-5 bcf/year, on an energy equivalent basis, could have the capacity to power around 200,000 homes per year ...

SS has described Loxley as potentially the 2nd largest onshore gas field after Saltfleetby.

Until the closure of the nearby Theddlethorpe gas terminal, Saltfleetby was owned and operated by Wingas, a subsidiary of Gazprom.

"As of 2019, with sales over $120,000,000,000, it (Gazprom) was ranked as the largest publicly listed natural gas company in the world and the largest company in Russia by revenue".

Just a reminder that Mike Wells has previous experience of the Portland at Brockham:

Mike Wells
Director of UK Operations (Non-Board)

Mike began his career with BP at Eakring and was involved in the development and appraisal of many wells in Lincolnshire and beyond including the original successful exploration wells into the Portland at Brockham ...

With the exception of a couple of spikes above 0.30p, UKOG has been largely flatlining for the last 2 years, moving within an upper line of about 0.20p and a lower line of about 0.10p.

Are we approaching a break-out above the 0.20p level?

He (Michael Lewis, CEO of E.ON UK) said: “I think for the next 18 months we’re likely to see higher prices. That’s already baked in, certainly in October and probably into next year as well. I think the longer-term development depends on what happens in the war in Ukraine [and] how Russian gas flows will develop.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/22/uk-high-fuel-bills-eon-boss-michael-lewis-says

First gas, the sidetrack, Brockham, the Balcombe appeal, Lidsey, geothermal, there really is lots to look forward to.

Think it's rare to come across a stock with so much potential value and a market cap of less than £20m.

Best wishes to all investors in Angus.