Member Info for ocelot

Odins,

Think 2p is much more realistic, that would be a market cap of £88.8m at a share price of 0.225p.

For the present, however, the market cap is a miserly £9.95m

Far from being on a multiple of, say, 4x EBITDA of £17m, we've fallen below a multiple of 1x at 0.59x.

Odins,

Current market cap of £9.95m with the price at 0.225p, so 20p would mean a market cap of £884.4m.

That is, indeed, asking for a lot on the basis of the current profile of the company.

Note the spotlight focused on Southern England (my capitals):

The Solent Cluster ... is the major industrial cluster and carbon emitter in the SOUTHERN HALF OF ENGLAND and encompasses UKEn's planned storage facility at its western limit.

Stuart Baker, Executive Director of The Solent Cluster, states:

... UKEn's hydrogen storage project in Dorset can, therefore, be a key enabler for the decarbonisation of The Solent Cluster and SOUTHERN UK, ..."

As per the Company's RNS of 27 June 2024, UKEn's national scale Dorset storage facility is planned to link directly with The Solent Cluster and the WIDER SOUTHERN UK via SGN's H2 Connect pipeline, enabling our storage to service a significant portion of the UK's planned future hydrogen system ...

Stuart Baker, Executive Director of The Solent Cluster, states:

"... UKEn's hydrogen storage project in Dorset can, therefore, be a key enabler for the decarbonisation of The Solent Cluster and southern UK, providing strategic inter-day to seasonal storage capacity, security of supply and pipeline stability for the proposed SGN H2 Connect pipeline network, also a key part of The Solent Cluster."

As per the Company's RNS of 27 June 2024, UKEn's national scale Dorset storage facility is planned to link directly with The Solent Cluster and the wider southern UK via SGN's H2 Connect pipeline, enabling our storage to service a significant portion of the UK's planned future hydrogen system ...

Meaningless forecast which hasn't been updated in years (from Stockopdeia, quite probably).

Has anybody seen an analyst's forecast in the recent past? Analysts have stopped covering small cap stocks.

Stephen Sanderson, Chief Executive of UKOG and UKEn, commented:

"This further key LOS will help strengthen UKEn's application for Revenue Support by providing government and identified potential strategic investors comfort that the project links directly to a major UK industrial user base. We look forward to continued collaboration with The Solent Cluster of which we are now a key member."

Geothermal also got a very recent mention (within the last week/10 days?) in the updated words of welcome on UKOG's home page (my capitals):

UK Oil & Gas Plc (“UKOG”) is an energy company, originally focused upon oil and gas exploration and production in the UK and international onshore sectors, but more recently spearheading hydrogen gas storage opportunities in Dorset and Yorkshire and INVESTIGATING THE GEOTHERMAL ENERGY SPACE IN THE UK.

Article on page 6 of the Business section of the Sunday Times.

Cites Bill Gates describing hydrogen as the "Swiss army knife of decarbonisation" but also speaks of research seeking to reduce the cost of electrolysers for the production of green hydrogen.

To lie means to mislead or to deceive deliberately.

But one can mislead without intending to do so, simply because one is not in possession of the full facts and only sees what one wants to see.

It's the opening lines of UKOG's "Welcome" on its home page which speak of the UK's geothermal space in the same paragraph as hydrogen gas storage opportunities.

UK Oil & Gas Plc (“UKOG”) is an energy company, originally focused upon oil and gas exploration and production in the UK and international onshore sectors, but more recently spearheading hydrogen gas storage opportunities in Dorset and Yorkshire and investigating the geothermal energy space in the UK.

Extract from Star Energy (formerly IGas) CEO's comments in their trading update RNS of 25/07:

The new UK Government have a clear mandate to build out clean energy and tackle climate change. The King's Speech set out the government's commitment to a clean energy transition, which aligns with our energy transition strategy. We are heartened by the positive moves to drive forward renewable energy deployment through the establishment of GB Energy and streamlining planning processes. We look forward to continuing positive engagement with this Government as we continue to deliver indigenous oil and gas whilst developing low carbon, geothermal heat for a net zero future.

Getting closer to the 6-month deadline to lodge an appeal re Broadford Bridge (RNS of 19/03/24)

"Technical and commercial discussions continue to progress with CeraPhi Energy regarding potential for a geothermal and agribusiness project incorporating the Broadford Bridge asset and site. The repurposing of Broadford Bridge offers an exciting niche business opportunity aligned with the national energy transition and travel to net zero". (Interim results RNS of 28/06/24)

UKOG is a member of the Geothermal Energy Advancement Association along with CeraPhi Energy:

https://www.geothermal-advancement.com/foundingmembers

Shore Capital is no longer there, so it looks as if deltavegatheta was right, they WERE holding as market makers for whom the disclosure threshold is 10%. So, after posting a holding of 9.13% on 29/07, they have complied with their disclosure requirements.

https://www.ukogplc.com/page.php?pID=5

Should the failure of Pinarova-1 have impacted UKOG's share price quite so negatively?

At the time, the impact was exaggerated by the presence of the convertible loan and the need to pay it off with new shares.

And since, there has been the Supreme court judgement in Finch v Surrey CC which was unhelpful to UKOG and is now posing a potential problem for the industry in general.

But even taking all of this into consideration, should UKOG's share price have fallen as low as it did?

In fact, it really puts the focus on the failure of the Pinarova-1 well in SE Turkey.

Looks a bit odd.

Minus 89.34% over 1 year, minus 97.34% over 3 years, so doesn't seem to have lost that much in those first 2 years.

To hit economic growth targets:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/sep/06/uk-needs-1tn-investment-over-10-years-to-hit-economic-targets

In your opinion, Bubblepoint.

This year ends on 30/09, then management and auditors will have 6 months in which to form their own opinion and express it in the annual report.

Just to clarify: net book assets are subject to annual review for impairment but are not to be confused with a valuation establishing value.

Agreed

Ratio of market cap of £4.5m (11.14bn issued shares at 0.0405p) to net book assets at 31/03/24 (latest available) of £33.294m = 1:7.4.

So market cap to net book assets is 0.135.