Member Info for observer842

@iamrich In terms of probability per fixed period of time, e.g. days, that the deal closes and we take our 20%, I'd say it's very high now, but starting to decrease over the next month or so, and then starting to increase again as the last shipment of the $10m net approaches, and then starting to decrease again once shipping has stalled. So sinusoidal for several months. You did ask for thoughts! ;-)

So Mexilit is probably OK, but what about Megalit? Is that still pending final approval?

More pointers it's very likely going to happen IMHO!

"China's Ganfeng sees lithium rally extending as profits almost triple" (MARCH 30, 2021)
https://www.reuters.com/article/ganfeng-lithium-results-idUSL4N2LS4FA
===[
Looking further ahead, Ganfeng said it would in future establish lithium salt capacity of no less than 600,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually, plus “a more competitive lithium resource project reserve to match it.”

Its current annual capacity is just over 120,000 tonnes.
]===

@bigdouble 171,568@20.4p? That's the way to do it! ;-)

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date Seaborne index 62% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe concentrates premium Seaborne index 65% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe pellets premium
2021-03-30 165.50 7.50 195.50 59.80
2021-03-29 167.50 7.50 196.50 59.80
2021-03-26 161.40 7.50 190.50 59.80
]===

Eventually we'll be producing "65% Fe Pellet Feed and 62% Spiral Concentrate". I'm reasonably certain the premiums above are applied to the 65% Fe fines index (but do correct me if I'm wrong!). But I don't know how to use them to translate to a good estimate of what we are selling.

After a little research, the best I can come up with is that the 4.4Mtpa of 65% Fe Pellet Feed would currently go for 195.5 + 7.5 = $203/t, but I am far from certain! And I must remember these are stated as index's too. Any old iron ore experts around to help out!? ;-)

Ob

Indeed @Barksy. China. If all parties have been aiming to ideally complete on or around first shipment then we could be in for the 20% RNS in the next few days, tomorrow even, otherwise hopefully sometime between now and when the last ship of the first $10m net has sailed otherwise shipping stalls - though other aspects that the $10m enabled can continue.

It feels so close I can smell it. Fingers well and truly crossed! :-))))

Schedule updated: OD (D) 26,27,31, R(C) 29,31,05, AG (C) 01,05,09, NLLH (U) 07,09,14

Tomorrow! :-))))

Futures above $100 per tonne until the beginning of 2023 - the project delay to date could end up playing out spectacularly for us if prices hold :-)))

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/iron-ore-62pct-fe-cfr-china-tsi-swap-futures_quotes_globex.html#

Eye spy with my little eye - through the cloud!

============
Satellite links:
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OSIOS DAVID in pier 1
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2021-03-29&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

High resolution, but unknown date:
https://satellites.pro/Brazil_map#-0.061670,-51.167402,19
https://what3words.com/rare.then.moats?maptype=satellite

Public port:
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https://serveporto.com.br/atuacao/macapa-ap/
https://www.myshiptracking.com/ports/port-of-santana-in-br-brazil-id-6679
https://www.vesselfinder.com/ports/BRSAN001
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/data/?recognized_next_port_in|begins|SANTANA|recognized_next_port_in=2476
https://www.fleetmon.com/ports/santana_brsan_2955/
http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/operacional/programacao-de-navios
https://shipnext.com/port/santana-brsan-bra

Private port:
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https://what3words.com/hugs.admires.respects?maptype=satellite
Stockpiles:
https://what3words.com/forecast.screamed.massive?maptype=satellite
https://what3words.com/happy.tractor.bunch?maptype=satellite
As pictured here:
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Port-South-1030x572.jpg

Social media:
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https://www.facebook.com/docasdesantana
https://www.facebook.com/Serveporto

Excellent interview. Thanks for sharing @EV_Bull

"Cadence Minerals first shipment of iron ore a milestone of huge significance (Interview)" (March 30, 2021)
https://www.***************************/cadence-minerals-first-shipment-of-iron-ore-a-milestone-of-huge-significance-interview/412972110
===[
Cadence Minerals plc (LON:KDNC) CEO Kiran Morzaria joins ************* to discuss its inaugural shipment of iron ore from the Amapa Iron Ore Project, Brazil. Kiran explains the significance of the announcement, the next steps now that shipping has begun and the potential opportunities and benefits for the wider Amapa community.
]===

No change from what I reported on Sunday. But that could be because there is no change, or hasn't been updated...

Can you see a situation whereby the project is progressing as planned, but Indo don't request further funding, meaning we don't have the opportunity to take 49%? Because some believe the JRP mandates DIP B project equity is raised to enable DIP C project debt, meaning if the project is progressing as planned we will have the opportunity to contribute to DIP B. But what if Indo decide to fund DIP B themselves thereby not requesting further funding from anyone? Not clear to me if this is possible.

Indeed @tomcat. I'm VERY hopeful that once we take our 20% @Kiran will do a better job of explaining the terms of going from 27% to 49%, as I've looked at it from quite a few angles, as have you, and although it does seem from the JRP that if the project goes ahead and DIP B financing is required it should be a "simple" matter of raising $24m to take us to 49% from 27%, I'm not 100% certain of this, or what happens if we choose not to.

IMHO there is a certain amount of "resistance", shall we say, around 20p...

March, April, May, June. June currently 10,20,26 which will change with near 100% certainty!

Yes, 4 ships, 3,4,5,6. June currently 10,20,26 which will change with near 100% certainty!

Incidentally it has crossed my mind that U might allow us to use a hold for the remainder of the $10m net if 2 ships isn't enough to realise this. We've share with them in the past.

@Bannor, my months away comment is in relation to the first shipment after the net $10m of ore has shipped, which is either 3 ships, or 2 if we are lucky. i.e. the third shipment or the 4th shipment, which are months away. We need to have completed with the banks before then or shipping stalls.

Indeed @Barksy. Probably the market not appreciating the significance of "approximately US$ 6 million of the net revenues will be used to begin recommissioning studies on the Amapa Iron Ore Project.". It accelerates the timescales, allowing the project to progress! All is good so long as we complete before the first shipment after $10m net has been realised is due. That is a few months away, but we could complete at any time really, possibly even today today, or later this week.

And there is a decent off-taker by the sounds of it! "The buyer is one of the world's largest globally diversified natural resource companies and a major producer and marketer of commodities." :-))))

Actually @tomcat, I think the clock might have started at the end of February... But we should pause if we haven't completed by the date of the scheduled 4th shipment.