Member Info for observer842

Potential for massive dilution you say? I'm taking the below from WHI as suggesting that due to its location and strategic value EMH's contribution to the CapEx could be near 100% debt funded meaning no, or very little further equity funding is required. And after all, half the company has already been equitied away to CEZ - potentially in a you scratch my back and I'll scratch your's arrangement. ;-)

===[
We believe that with the location in Europe for EMH’s project and the many car manufacturers pinning their future on EVs, and the potential growth of a significant battery industry, an environment will be created where industry participation and/ or EU guarantees in the funding of the project may be a distinct possibility.
]===

But perhaps that's not going to happen. Say EMH had to find $275m (its half of the $550m CapEx estimate) - perhaps at 4:1 debt to equity - that would be around $55m in equity, quite feasible with a share price several multiples of today's. Fully funded to construction decision is quite impressive for a junior miner - OK, half the company had to be sacrificed, but still! LoL. :-)

Ob.

I don't think I read this properly at the time as I've just noted:

===[
In our model we assume current spot prices ($12,000/t LiOH) through the mine life and have inflated our capital cost requirement from the June updated PFS to $550m (from $483m). Using these inputs we calculate a fair value at 62p/sh using a DCF methodology and 40% of NPV10. European metals is only at the start of its development cycle.
]===

I hadn't realised they'd discounted the NPV10 by 40% to arrive at 62p. Perhaps I should take a closer read... :-)

Ob.

@enteleon presumably you've seen this:

"WHIreland: European Metals Holdings: €29m CEZ Strategic Investment in Cinovec Project completed" (14 May 2020)
https://www.europeanmet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/FN-EMH-140520.pdf
===[
Valuation
Our fair value for European Metals Holdings is 62p against the current share price of 13p.
]===

An easy 5 bagger from these levels if all goes to plan IMHO (and WHI's!)

Or at least give me a clue. ;-)

lol @tomcat. Surely everyone who has spotted it has finished topping up by now. Do share :-)

Anyone else getting the feeling there is news out there we've (I've!) missed? News tomorrow on HAS. News soon on Amapa.

Looks like someone wants a bit of what we've got. They're not having any of mine with news so close! :-)

This is probably a better page to bookmark for the DCE (Dalian Commodity Exchange):

http://www.dce.com.cn/DCE/Products/Industrial/Iron%20Ore/index.html

As I hinted at earlier this is slightly greater than 62% Fe though. Contract specifications at:

http://www.dce.com.cn/DCE/Products/Industrial/Iron%20Ore/491886/index.html

with the details at:

http://www.dce.com.cn/DCEENMO/Products0/Industrial20/Iron%20Ore/dce_2365198/dce_2365202/index.html
===[
>62.0% and =65.0%:
Premium of 1.0 per 0.1% of increase
]===

So average quality likely somewhere between 63-64% based on contract prices. I've resisted the temptation to get my calculator out - simpler to follow the trends! ;-)

Ob.

Quotes on the NYM now above $90 out to and including October. And above 80 out to and including May 2021:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/iron-ore-62pct-fe-cfr-china-tsi-swap-futures_quotes_globex.html

@Mullins. Interestingly the FT has caught up with the Friday trades on the NYM I posted earlier:

"Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Swa TIOc1:NYM"
https://markets.ft.com/data/commodities/tearsheet/summary?c=Iron+ore
===[
$99.50
]===

Presumably when it says: "Data delayed at least 10 minutes.", it really means it! ;-) So not only is it a weighted average of recent contracts (rather than a spot), it's lagging. I knew there was a reason I don't usually look there :-)

Ob.

Great interview @jimb2. Of course he was talking about LCE per kWH of 0.8, not lithium.

For reference on Thursday these were:
===[
TIOM0 TIOM0 Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Futures FUT NYMEX 95.65 100 09:56:48 CT
TION0 TION0 Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Futures FUT NYMEX 93.3 100 09:56:48 CT
]===

Follow the trends :-)

Whilst I'm thinking about it, I thought I'd dig a bit deeper into the Times's "$95.32: Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Swa
TIOc1:NYM" reported on Friday. The c1 refers to continuous contract pricing and is a weighted average of recent contracts of CME's design. The actual volumes on the NYM on Friday were these:

https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/accepted-trade-types/block-data.html#contractTypes=FUT&exchanges=XCBT,XCME,XCEC,DUMX,XNYM&assetClassId=8
===[
CLEARPORT GLOBEX CONTRACT TYPE EXCHANGE PRICE QTY TIME
TIOM0 TIOM0 Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Futures FUT NYMEX 99.55 118 07:40:29 CT
TION0 TION0 Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Futures FUT NYMEX 97.0 118 07:40:29 CT
]===

where M0 is June and N0 is July this year: https://www.cmegroup.com/month-codes.html

i.e even the "spot" (if such a thing ever existed!) on the NYM was likely above $100. :-)

For those who are interested (yawn!):

http://www.dce.com.cn/DCE/Market_Data/Market%20Statistics/index.html
===[
Contract Open High Low Close Prev Settle Settle Chg Volume OI OI Chg Turnover
i2006 767.5 789.5 767.5 789 761.5 776 27.5 598 1,706 -451 46,412.15
i2007 779 816.5 779 815 774.5 793 40.5 11,818 12,730 24 937,522.5
i2008 750 784 747.5 784 742.5 759.5 41.5 3,890 4,722 615 295,484.95
i2009 713 753.5 712 752 706.5 729 45.5 1,559,848 969,900 92,293 113,732,192.45
i2010 694 732.5 694 732.5 686.5 707.5 46 715 1,146 -2 50,592.1
i2011 670.5 715.5 670.5 715.5 670.5 692 45 379 2,436 -16 26,244.95
i2012 672 692 668 692 650 681 42 22 165 -5 1,498.95
i2101 644.5 682.5 644.5 679 639.5 661.5 39.5 131,422 139,667 7,063 8,696,071.35
i2102 0 0 0 637.5 616.5 637.5 21 0 43 0 0
i2103 621.5 655 621 651 615 630 36 257 587 15 16,200.5
i2104 615 635 615 635 599 628 36 9 35 2 565.25
i2105 599 631.5 599 629 595.5 612.5 33.5 12,568 18,574 712 770,256.75
i Subtotal - - - 0 0 0 0 1,721,526 1,151,711 100,250 124,573,041.9
Total - - - 0 0 0 0 1,721,526 1,151,711 100,250 124,573,041.9 ]===

@Mullins. Although trends might be useful, for iron ore I think it's more appropriate to use the more heavily traded DLC (Dalian Commodities Exchange) over the NYM (New York Mercantile) for prices - most media outlets do. You can find the daily reported shifts in what we are most interested in at:

"Custeel Index--Daily Index"
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date Seaborne index 62% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe fines
2020-05-29 100.15 115.50
2020-05-28 96.15 112.00
2020-05-27 95.05 110.90
2020-05-26 94.55 110.40
2020-05-25 96.55 112.50
2020-05-22 96.75 112.80
]===

Nice little jump to above 100 on Friday. If you click around a bit you'll find:

"Iron Ore Spot Price Index (RMB/wmt, VAT included)"
===[
2020-05-29 Today Yesterday Change DoD Last Month Change MoM Last Year Change YoY
62% Fe imported fines 759 733 3.50% 651 16.60% 765 -0.80%
]===

According to Google: "759 Chinese Yuan equals 106.34 United States Dollar".

The above are spot price indices, the article I referred to was for September delivery, and it is that which jumped 6.4% on Friday - though I wouldn't pay too much attention to the prices mentioned unless you really want your eyes to bleed: there are so many metrics! Follow the trends. ;-)

Ob.

I am indeed invested @Bav3, and like pretty much all companies I have a belief in I have averaged down over the years, quite spectacularly so on this one. This might not mean much, but I have a larger percentage today of the company than at any time I have held previously, and am in fact reasonably close to reaching my target percentage holding. :-)

And USD to BRL still very favourable for Amapa finances. :-) 5.4

"China iron ore surges over 6%, logs fifth straight weekly gain" (MAY 29, 2020)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-ironore/china-iron-ore-surges-over-6-logs-fifth-straight-weekly-gain-idUSKBN23516Q
===[
The most traded iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, for September delivery, jumped as much as 6.7% to 754 yuan ($105.50) per tonne, before closing up 6.4% to 752 yuan.
]===

Of course, I'm not suggesting getting to 20% won't also likely cause a second leg/wind to the re-rate, unless the first was massively over cooked! LoL. Now what was WHI's risked valuation again? :-)

According to my logic we'd wait until the decision is final. But the 20% doesn't really matter at this stage, it's getting the ore shipped that is key to any re-rate here IMHO.