Member Info for nr98

Difference between Card and Wrks is that Wrks balance sheet is basically squeaky clean and comps have been great last few Qs/Hs compared to Card. Also impt to note for Wrks is that mgmt used to overexpand stores, think 50 stores per annum but they mentioned in their latest annual report that they're not going to do that anymore...

Capital discipline, clean b/s and value retailers generally being more frequented in inflationary periods- this should not trade here.

But agreed, both wrks and card are good value.

This thing trades at <2x EBITDA with a respectable FCF conversion %. A good print and dividend reinstated should be a nice catalyst for the stock to return to north of 60p and perhaps 70p even... fingers crossed.

That's a nice narrative but i think in a recession, gambling volumes would take a hit regardless - 2008 fin crisis, casinos saw cc 20% revenue declines. But a software provider should be well buffered as it doesnt have the same op leverage as a b&m casino. But maybe with online gambling pervading, the impact is also dampened given the lower frictional costs to gamble i.e. don't have to travel to a casino etc.

In any case, given the current trading update, it seems like even if there is no bid, the downside should be dampened compared to last year before the whole hoo ha took place. We'll see

What's worth noting re this bid is that the headline multiple offered by Aris - 11.4x is woefully understated given that they intended to sever EBITDA streams post business review... multiple more like 13-14x. Could argue that the TTM numbers used were pandemic infected and normalized no. would be higher so multiple deserves to be lower. But in any case, a 10x on TTM numbers ending Dec 31 would still equate to a nice >£7. ..

But i'm sure the bidders all know the value of the B2B and B2C assets...

Quick qn, where do you read that if Aristocrat were to offer a rebid, they only need 50% acceptance this time?